Arch Sci (2012) 12:51–67 DOI 10.1007/s10502-011-9144-3 ORIGINAL PAPER
Paradise lost? Pacific island archives threatened by climate change Matthew Gordon-Clark
Published online: 26 August 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Over the past 10 years, a clear pattern of increasing sea-level rises has been recorded across the Pacific region. As international work progresses on climate change, it is becoming clear that the expected rise of sea levels will have significant impacts upon low-lying islands and nations. Sea-level rises of less than 0.5 m are generally suggested, although some researchers have made more drastic projections. This paper describes the second stage of research into the impacts of climate change upon the national archival collections in low-lying Pacific islands and nations. This article follows on the argument that archival collection relocation will be necessary and sets the boundaries for further research. It will summarize current research into climate change models and predicted sea-level rises, identify Pacific islands and nations that will be the focus of detailed further research by setting a range of research boundaries based on the known geography of nations within the Pacific, arguing for a specific measurement of ‘‘low-elevation’’, outlining other risk factors likely to affect the survival of threatened national archival collections and naming those islands and nations that are thus deemed to be at greatest risk of flooding and thus likely to need to relocate their archives. The goal is to demonstrate how archivists might inform the governmental policy in threatened islands and nations as well as what other nations might do to offer assistance. Keywords
Climate change Pacific islands Archives Low-lying nations
Introduction It is thought that rising sea levels caused by global warming will have significant impacts upon the archival collections in low-lying islands and nation states within M. Gordon-Clark (&) State Records of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia e-mail:
[email protected]
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the Pacific region (Gordon-Clark and Shurville 2010). However, before detailed research into these impacts can begin and mitigation strategies developed, it is logical to review the issue of climate change and rising sea levels and to describe what impact this issue will have within the Pacific region. This research can then be used to guide policy development in islands and nations at risk, as well as that in their less risk-prone neighbors, regarding the preservation of archival collections. For those unfamiliar with the role of archives and archivists it may appear, at first glance, that there is not a readily apparent link between disaster management/ mitigation and the role of the profession. However, following a disaster, the need for professionally created, managed and preserved records becomes even more essential to good governance and ensuring continuity of operations. The need by the affected nation state, and external bodies assisting in recovery efforts, for accurate data about personal identity, personal medical history, and the location and make up of essential infrastructure all create an immediate demand for accurate records. In the longer-term recovery process, accurate records are vital for such purposes as the establishment or re-establishment of property rights, demonstration of proof of personal identity for insurance claims and support for the process of stabilizing societal structures.
Climate change review The underlying assumption for this paper is that rising sea levels are a reality. It is not the intention to enter into the debate about global warming. However, a brief overview of the current data about climate change is considered appropriate. Over the past century, the world has warmed by about 0.6 degrees Celsius (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 690). There has been an increase in sea levels between 1961 and 2003 of an average level of 1.8 mm, and the rate of increase has become more noticeable in the period from 1993 to 2003, on average about 3.1 mm a year (Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change 2007a, b, p. 30). More significantly, the incidence of warmer years is increasing. The Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007a) reported that eleven of the years between 1995 and 2006 were among the warmest on record (p. 30). Sea levels have risen annually by roughly 1.5–2.0 mm per year, with an increased level of increase in the latter part of the century (Climate Institute n.d.). The rate of increase at the end of the century has been shown, via satellite observations, to have increased to 3.1 mm per year (Raper 2010). While these current changes are of concern, greater concern is caused by the projections for future increases in sea levels. Increases of at least one meter over the course of the twenty-first century have been suggested by John Church, one of the lead authors of the Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007b). An even more alarming increase of 2 m has been suggested by James Hansen at NASA (Roper 2009). The question of how much sea levels will rise is subject to debate. This is evidenced by the suggestion by the IPCC of annual increases in sea levels of an average rate of 5.0 mm per year over the course of the twenty-first century (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 690).
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How will climate change affect low-lying Pacific islands and nations? As the scientific research matures, it is becoming clear that there will be a wide range of effects of climate change upon the islands and nations in the Pacific. This paper is limited to a discussion of the following areas: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)
Increasing sea levels Effects on potable water Effects on arable land Extreme weather events and their consequences. Political and social upheaval Risks to national infrastructure of low-lying islands and nations
Increasing sea levels Across the world millions of people who live in coastal regions are at risk from rising sea levels On Pacific and Indian Ocean atolls, villages are located on low and narrow islands, and in the Caribbean, more than half of the population live within 1.5 km of the shoreline (Mimura et al. 2007, pp. 700–707). Islands and nations that consist solely of low-lying geographic features, relative to sea level, are in serious danger of being swamped as sea levels increase. Across the Pacific region islands and nations most at risk from this increase are: Tuvalu (with a maximum height above sea level [ASL] of 5 m, the Marshall Islands (10 m ASL), Tokelau (5 m ASL) and Kiribati (4 m ASL)(CIA World Factbook 2010). If the average annual sea level increase figure of a 5 mm as suggested by the IPCC is accepted, then Tuvalu and Tokelau face the real risk of being under water in 1,000 years. Mwemwenikeaki (2010) has estimated that by 2100, 80% of the land area on the main island Tarawa, in Kiribati, will be subject to storm surge water inundation. The United Nations Environment Programme (2005) reports that the islets of Tebua Tarawa and Abanuea, in Kiribati, were flooded in 1999. In the summer of 2008, the governments of Australia and New Zealand were approached by the Kiribati government with a request to accept its population as permanent refugees. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment, Agriculture and Lands in Tuvalu (2007, p. 32) reports that in the period between 1993 and 1999 a tidal gauge recorded an increase in the average sea level of 22 mm per year in Tuvalu. This increase was offset by a drop in the same sea levels of 36.6 mm in the period 1997–1998. Even more at risk are the Maldives in the Indian Ocean (2.4 m ASL)(CIA World Factbook 2010). What is especially concerning is that islands and nations with such overall low geographic features often do not have other areas of high elevation land to which displaced persons can move. Even countries with large areas of land that exist well above sea level, such as Australia, face severe risks at those places within their borders close to sea level. In an e-mail, David Hood (2010) advises that the airport
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runways in both Sydney and Brisbane are estimated to be as low as 3 m and not more than 6 m above sea level at their highest points. As a result, it can be seen that the impacts of rising sea levels will be felt across all nations, rich and poor, in the region. Effects on potable water Climate change-induced alterations to the weather are also expected to have dramatic effects on the already limited water supply of some low-lying islands and nations. These changes may include reduced rainfall due to prolonged droughts and increases in king and storm tides contaminating surface fresh water supplies. It should be noted that the term king tide does not have a scientific definition but is generally used in the popular context to describe any high tide that is well above average height. Another major concern is the likely impact of salt water contamination of already limited underground fresh water aquifers. Model projections from the World Bank 2000 (cited in Mimura et al. 2007, p. 697) suggest that if there is a 10% reduction in average rainfall by 2050 there will be a 20% reduction in the freshwater lens (e.g., the layer of fresh water that floats on the saline groundwater, resulting from the natural process of rainwater infiltrating into the ground and aquifer (Hawaii n.d.)) on Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati. The same World Bank studies show that on Bonriki Island, Kiribati ‘‘A 50 cm rise in sea level accompanied by a reduction of rainfall of 25% would reduce the freshwater lens by 65%’’ (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 697). Added to these effects is a lack of large-scale water capture and distribution infrastructure, such as dams or reticulated water supply systems. In fact, many of these small islands and nations have limited land available to support this infrastructure. Thus, the effects of climate change on potable fresh water supplies could be dramatic. Countries lacking supplies of potable surface water, such as Tuvalu, will face increased difficulties in harvesting sufficient rainfall as climate change-induced alterations to precipitation patterns occur. Even if sea levels do not increase to the extent that entire low-lying land masses are inundated, the requirement by human beings for potable fresh water is such that low-lying islands or nations may become uninhabitable. This also applies to the requirements of fresh water for agricultural purposes. Effects on arable land Some low-lying islands and nations already have limited areas of arable land that support a fragile agriculture system. However, the IPCC does not conclude that there is a readily established linked between increased sea levels and coastal erosion (Nicholls et al. 2007, p. 320). Even if existing land masses remain static, there is the danger that the available arable land will become unusable for agriculture due to salt water contamination caused by king tides (Hezel 2009). In 2007 and 2008, taro crops in the Federated States of Micronesia suffered saltwater contamination resulting in a near complete loss; similar damage occurred in 2008 in the Marshall Islands (Hezel 2009). Hezel (2009) also reports that measures taken to protect
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valuable agricultural land from further occurrences have included protecting the growing beds with concrete walls or lining the growing holes with concrete. While this had some success, all of the necessary materials must be shipped to the affected islands. This adds to the production costs and may in turn make the price of the resulting produce unaffordable for the inhabitants of the islands (Hezel 2009). The increased risks of droughts, as seen in Australia in recent years, will have significant impacts upon the already limited agricultural base of low-lying islands and nations. This is very important because agricultural production across the Pacific region tends to be at a subsistence level, with little ability to support periods of poor harvests. The cost of losses in agricultural productivity was assessed by the World Bank in 2000 (as cited by Mimura et al. 2007): …a high island such as Viti Levu, Fiji, could experience damages of US$23 million to $52 million/yr by 2050 …a group of low islands such as Tarawa, Kiribati, could face average annual damages of more than US$8 million to 16 million/yr… (p. 698). According to Hugh Gordon-Clark (2010), these costs would represent 0.745–0.81% of GDP in case of Fiji and 6.938–15.611% of GDP for Kiribati— based on 2009 GDP data. As a point of comparison, the Acting Government Archivist in Fiji (Ikaniwai 2010) confirmed that the 2009 annual budget for the National Archives of Fiji was $746,900. Extreme weather events It is projected that climate change will continue to affect the extreme weather events in the Pacific. It should be observed that the existence of a causal relationship between human-induced climate change and increasing extreme weather events is not universally accepted (Vecchi et al. 2008). This contentious argument is fed by a shortage of data to measure past extreme weather events and the possibility that such events might form part of a natural cycle of high and lows. A doubling of category 4 and 5 storms has been observed in the southwest Pacific in the period 1975–1989 (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 692). The impacts of past destructive storms upon Pacific islands and nations are well known, and it can reasonably be assumed that severe storms will continue to happen in the future. Roper (2009) reports that data about the cost impact of past storms and extreme weather events have been compiled: In 2008, the insurance company Munich Re reported that in Oceania, 50 natural catastrophes such as storms, cyclones, and flooding caused US $2.4 billion of damage, some half of which was in the islands (p. 8). Another example of the consequences of the damages caused by tropical storms is evidenced in the impact of tropical cyclone Ofa in 1990 on Niue. Following the storm, this nation was changed from one that exported food to one dependent on food imports for 2 years (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 700). The ability of small islands and nations to recover from the damage caused by extreme weather events must be considered. The capacity to rebuild includes the
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ability to pay for the reconstruction. Mimura et al. (2007) advise that the generally accepted practice in developed nations of insuring against events does not always exist in the Pacific: In 2004, Cyclone Heta devastated the tiny island of Niue in the South-West Pacific, where no insurance is available against weather extremes, leaving the island almost entirely reliant on overseas aid for reconstruction efforts (p. 707). It should be noted that extreme weather events can severely impact wealthier nations as well, due to a lack of insurance cover. Sawada and Shimizutani (2005) point out that when the 1995 earthquake hit Kobe, Japan, ‘‘…only 3% of the property in the Hyogo Prefecture, where Kobe is located, was covered by earthquake insurance …’’ (p. 2). Given the more limited economic base and lower levels of GDP in Pacific island nations, it is reasonable to conclude that their ability to recover from severe weather impacts will be more constrained than in a nation with a wealthier and more diversified economy. This recovery ability will be even more constrained by the absence of insurance coverage. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment, Agriculture and Lands in Tuvalu (2007, p. 21) states that in 1997 consecutive cyclones Gavin, Hina and Keli struck Tuvalu with an estimated loss of 1 million Australian dollars. The effects of severe weather events on already fragile national economies and infrastructure will cause significant national and personal costs, as was evidenced in the December 26, 2004, tsunami in southeast Asia and the 2009 tsunami that caused considerable damage in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Political and social upheaval As the impacts of climate-induced stresses on the islands and nations of the Pacific become more severe and more obvious, it is clear that the existing social and political structures will come under increasing threat. Risks, such as increasing costs of living, decreasing national living standards and political and social upheaval, can all reasonably be expected, to varying degrees. Examples of these impacts can be seen in the costs of generating electricity for islands and nations who are solely dependent on imported diesel supplies to operate their power generating plant. Roper (2009, p. 8) cites the case of a 25% annual increase in the cost of diesel on Kiribati in 2008. A more radical example of social disruption can be seen in the request by the population of the Carteret Islands to be relocated to the mainland of Papua New Guinea. Other examples of social dislocation across the Pacific are described by Mimura et al. (2007) when they state: Both Kiribati and the Maldives have ongoing resettlement schemes and, for the past 70 years, the people of Sikaiana Atoll in the Solomon Islands have been migrating away from their atoll … and from the outer islands of Tuvalu to the capital of Funafuti (p. 708).
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A more historic example of population relocation in the Pacific region can be seen in the relocation of the population of Bananba to Fiji in 1946 due to the deleterious effects of phosphate mining on their land. Another historical example of social upheaval and dislocation that pre-date the examples previously cited is the relocation of the population of the St Kilda archipelago to the Scottish mainland in 1930. It is also reasonable to surmise that, faced with catastrophic effects from rising sea levels, the priorities of Pacific islands, nations and their governments will focus more on preserving life than the preservation of national archives. Risks to national infrastructure Mimura et al. report (2007, p. 207) that most populations and national infrastructure for Pacific islands and nations exist along the coastal fringes. Such coastal congregations form substantial risks as a consequence of climate change events. Recent events, such as the 2010 earthquake in Haiti and the 2009 tsunami in the Pacific, that caused damage and loss of life on Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga, clearly show the aftermath of a severe weather event upon the national infrastructure required to support national recovery efforts. Specific impacts for rising sea levels and severe weather events have been analyzed for Fiji and Samoa. It has been shown, for instance, that port facilities at Suva, Fiji, and Apia, Samoa, would experience overtopping, damage to wharves, and flooding of the hinterland if there were a 0.5 m rise in sea level combined with waves associated with a 1-in-50 year cyclone (Mimura et al. 2007, p. 703). The location of national infrastructure, such as roads, harbors and airports, is reflective of the prevailing understanding, at the time of construction, of the risks to which this infrastructure would be exposed. Changes in the understanding of risk exposure occur faster than it is possible to relocate or protect existing infrastructure. This is supported by the Kiribati Ministry of Environment, Land and Agricultural Development, Environment and Conservation Division (2007, p. 17), where the location of public assets (e.g., roads, government buildings, wharves) is reflective of the knowledge and expectation of risks based on the early 1900s.
What islands and nations, and their archives, are at risk? Having examined the question of climate risks, two questions then arise. Which islands and nations are at risk of flooding due to climate change-induced sea-level rise and which national archives are at risk and may need relocation? Since the underlying threat is a combination of rising sea levels, and low geographic features, it is now appropriate to survey the known geography of islands and nations across the Pacific. The summary, see Table 1, uses known land mass elevation above sea level, as the selection criteria. However, it may not be sufficient to simply use known geographic height ASL as the sole criteria for deciding whether an island or nation state and its archives are at
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Republic of Nauru
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Tokelau
Tuvalu
Marshall Islands
Tokelau
Tuvalu
Niue
Nauru
Republic of Kiribati
Niue
Cook Islands
Cook Islands
Kiribati
Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands
Wallis and Futuna
Territory of Guam
Federated States of Micronesia
Micronesia
Republic of Palau
Territory of American Samoa
American Samoa
Palau
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
Northern Mariana Islands
Guam
Kingdom of Tonga
Tonga
Independent State of Samoa
Samoa
Territory of New Caledonia and Dependencies
Republic of Vanuatu
Vanuatu
Republic of the Fiji Islands
Overseas Lands of French Polynesia
French Polynesia
Fiji
Solomon Islands
Solomon Islands
New Caledonia
Long form nation name
Common name
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
0 m, Pacific Ocean
Minimum height
5
5
10
61
68
81
242
406
625
765
791
964
965
1,033
1,324
1,628
1,857
1,877
2,241
2,447
Maximum height ASL (m)
Table 1 Land mass elevation above sea level (ASL) in descending order (Derived from the CIA World Factbook 2010)
Unnamed location
Unnamed location
Unnamed location on Likiep
Unnamed location
Unnamed location near Mutalau Settlement
Unnamed location on Banaba
Mount Ngerchelchuus
Mount Lamlam
Te Manga
Mount Singavi
Dolohmwar
Lata Mountain
Unnamed location on Agrihan
Unnamed elevation on Kao Island
Tomanivi
Mount Paine
Mauga Silisili
Tabwemasana
Mount Orohena
Mount Makarakomburu
Location of maximum height ASL
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risk of flooding. Another key criterion to be considered is the political status of islands and nations across the Pacific. An island or nation state may consist of very low geographic features but at the same time have a stable political relationship with a wealthier and more economically sophisticated nation. An example of this can be seen in case of Tokelau. Tokelau is a self-administering territory of New Zealand, and two referenda were held in 2006 and 2007 on decolonization. Neither referendum received the required majority to amend the existing national status. The New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs appoints a person as the Administrator of Tokelau. Most of the powers of the Administrator are delegated to the councils of elders in Tokelau. The General Fono is the Parliament of Tokelau and meets 3–4 times a year. When the General Fono is not sitting, the government consists of an Executive Council (the Council for the Ongoing Government of Tokelau) (Tokelau n.d.). Although the government in Tokelau exercises a large degree of autonomy, it cannot be accurately described as an independent self-governing nation state. A number of islands are overseas territories of richer, higher geographically situated Western nations. In such a case, the Pacific island would be eligible for assistance from that nation. An example of this relationship, and its application to a disaster in the Pacific, can be seen in the relationship between American Samoa and the United States of America. American Samoa is a territory of the United States of America. When the 2009 tsunami struck American Samoa, it became eligible for assistance from the United States Federal Emergency Management Authority (US FEMA). The Federal Emergency Management Agency coordinates the federal government’s role in preparing for, preventing, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all domestic disasters, whether natural or man-made, including acts of terror (United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (US FEMA) 2010). Three sovereign states across the Pacific region, the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Republic of Palau, have entered into free associations with the United States of America. According to the government of Federated States of Micronesia (1983): (a) The Government of the United States shall make available to the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia, in accordance with and to the extent provided in the separate agreements referred to in Sect. 232, without compensation and at the levels equivalent to those available to the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands during the year prior to the effective date of this Compact, the services and related programs: (1) of the United States Weather Service; (2) of the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency; (Federated States of Micronesia 1983, Sect. 221). The Republic of Palau has also entered into a Compact of Free Association with the United States (CIA World Factbook 2011a).
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According to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (n.d.), ‘‘New Caledonia is an overseas country of France going through a process of growing autonomy under the terms of the 1998 Noumea Accord’’. By virtue of the Accord, an increasing range of responsibilities for governance will be transferred to New Caledonia, and France is committed to conducting a referendum on the issue of full sovereignty and independence. In practical effect, this means that New Caledonia currently occupies an interim status between that of an independent country and an overseas collectivity of France. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade [DFAT] (2011a, b) describes French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna as occupying a different political situation due to their status as overseas territories. In 2003, the French Constitution was amended to grant greater degree of self-government to French overseas possessions. Although the governments of French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna now have increased power, they remain listed as overseas collectivities in that Constitution. According to DFAT (2011a, b) Guam exists as a ‘‘… self-governing territory of the United States of America, with President Barack Obama as Head of State and Governor Felix P. Camacho as Head of Government’’. The Central Intelligence Agency (2011b) identifies the Northern Mariana Islands as a commonwealth in political union with the United States of America. The New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2011) lists the Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign states in free association with New Zealand. This allows inhabitants of the Cook Islands to administer their own affairs while possessing New Zealand citizenship. Within New Zealand, the disaster management role is assumed by the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (n.d.) which describes its role to: • • • • •
provide strategic policy advice on New Zealand’s capability to manage and be resilient to the social and economic costs of disasters ensure the establishment of structures to provide the capability to manage and respond to disasters in New Zealand provide support to sector stakeholders in their delivery of civil defense emergency management ensure a co-ordinated approach, at both national and community level to planning for reduction, readiness, response and recovery; manage central government response and recovery functions for large-scale events that are beyond the capacity of local authorities.
Another form of nation status is that of a free, independent, self-governing nation. Examples of this, in various forms, can be seen in the status of Nauru, Kiribati, Fiji, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. It is worth observing that where a Pacific island or nation exists in a formal political relationship, in whatever form, with another nation, the records it generates cannot be truly those of an independent nation. As a consequence, these records could be considered part of the national property and responsibility of the other nation (Table 2).
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Table 2 Political status of Pacific islands and nations (Derived from the CIA World Factbook 2010) Common name
Long form nation name
Political status
American Samoa
Territory of American Samoa
Unincorporated and unorganized territory of the US; administered by the Office of Insular Affairs, US Department of the Interior.
Cook Islands
Cook Islands
Self-governing parliamentary democracy in free association with New Zealand. Cook Islands is fully responsible for internal affairs; New Zealand retains responsibility for external affairs and defense in consultation with the Cook Islands. The Islands have the right at any time to move to full independence by unilateral action.
Fiji
Republic of the Fiji Islands
Independent republic.
French Polynesia
Overseas Lands of French Polynesia
Overseas territory of France from 1946 to 2004. Overseas collectivity 2004—present day. The local government has no competence in justice, education, security and defense, directly provided and administered by the French State.
Guam
Territory of Guam
Organized, unincorporated territory of the US with policy relations between Guam and the US under the jurisdiction of the Office of Insular Affairs, US Department of the Interior.
Kiribati
Republic of Kiribati
Independent republic.
Marshall Islands
Republic of the Marshall Islands
Independent republic. Constitutional government in free association with the US; the Compact of Free Association entered into force on 21 October 1986 and the Amended Compact entered into force in May 2004.
Nauru
Republic of Nauru
Independent republic.
Micronesia
Federated States of Micronesia
Constitutional government in free association with the US; the Compact of Free Association entered into force on 3 November 1986 and the Amended Compact entered into force in May 2004.
New Caledonia
Territory of New Caledonia and Dependencies
Territorial collectivity (or a sui generis collectivity) of France
Niue
Niue
Self-governing parliamentary democracy in free association with New Zealand since 1974. Niue fully responsible for internal affairs; New Zealand retains responsibility for external affairs and defense; however, these responsibilities confer no rights of control and are only exercised at the request of the Government of Niue
Northern Mariana Islands
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
Commonwealth in political union with the US; federal funds to the Commonwealth administered by the US Department of the Interior, Office of Insular Affairs.
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Table 2 continued Common name
Long form nation name
Political status
Palau
Republic of Palau
Constitutional government in free association with the US; the Compact of Free Association entered into force on 1 October 1994.
Samoa
Independent State of Samoa
Independent parliamentary democracy
Solomon Islands
Solomon Islands
Independent parliamentary democracy
Tokelau
Tokelau
Self-administering territory of New Zealand;
Tonga
Kingdom of Tonga
Independent constitutional monarchy
Tuvalu
Tuvalu
Independent parliamentary democracy
Vanuatu
Republic of Vanuatu
Independent parliamentary republic
Wallis and Futuna
Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands
French overseas territory
Other selection criteria Proximity of national archives to sea level Since national archives are threatened by rising sea levels, it is also appropriate to consider the actual physical location of national archival collections across the Pacific in relation to the nearest sea levels. In attempting to describe the physical locations of national archival collections across the Pacific, a relatively basic problem is encountered. Ewan Maidment (2010) of the Pacific Archives Manuscript Bureau—National Library of Australia explained ‘‘as far as know [sic] many Pacific islands do not use formal street addresses, but prefer PO Box numbers’’ Referring to the national archives of the Cook Islands, he writes: The National Archives repository in [sic] on the road running up toward Te Ko’u mountain, in a valley above Avarua, Rarotonga, high above the sea level. The repository is possibly subject to floods from adjacent creek or cyclone damage. The Acting Government Archivist in Fiji, Salesia Ikaniwai (2010) confirmed that The Buildings of the National Archives of Fiji is situated on the corner of Carnavon & Kimberly Street, Suva. Its [sic] about its about 800 meters from Suva’s Sea Shore and is located on a raised level which about 4.5 m above the nomal [sic] high tide mark. Its [sic] current location shield itself from any prevailing winds, rain or tidal surges. The first building which is located on Carnavon Street was built in 1914. The new purpose built Archives building on Kimberly Street was completed in 2008. Former National Librarian and Archivist of Kiribati, Richard Overy (2010), describes the situation in both Kiribati and Nauru:
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The KNA is located at Bairiki on the right-hand side of the main road leading west. It is on the eastern side of ‘Bairiki Square’. It is in the middle of Bairiki Islet and is reasonably well protected from the worst of prevailing easterly winds, rains and occasional westerly gales. It is approximately 2–3 m above the normal high tide mark. Bairiki is approximately 12 km west of the airport at Bonriki and approximately 5 km east of Betio Islet, the shipping port and main commercial center. Nauru—As Ewan has stated, at present there is no National Archives as such. Some records had been stored at the government library until about 12 or 15 years ago but were lost in a fire that destroyed the whole building. I understand from Nauruan informants that some records are being kept at the Lands Court office which when I last heard (about 5 years ago) is located close to the president’s office—about 20 m above sea level and about one kilometer inland from the shoreline. But I cannot verify that this is still the situation today. A final example is the description of the location of the National Archives of Tuvalu provided by an email from Richard Overy (2010):
Table 3 Populations in Pacific Islands and Nations (Bedford and Cooper n.d., used with permission) Jurisdiction
Land area
Population (000’s)
% urban
Crude NMRa
km2
2008
2030
2008
2008 -10.1
Fiji
18,272
839
1,020
51
New Caledonia
18,576
246
320
63
4.6
Solomon Islands
28,370
521
884
16
0.0
Vanuatu
12,190
233
388
21
0.0
Federated States of Micronesia
701
110
120
22
-16.0
Guam
541
179
242
93
13.7
Kiribati
811
97
138
44
-1.0
Marshall Islands
181
53
67
68
-16.0
21
10
14
100
0.0
Northern Mariana Islands
457
63
68
90
-31.5
Palau
444
20
23
64
0.0
American Samoa
199
66
91
50
-5.4 -7.7
Nauru
Cook Islands
237
16
16
72
3,521
263
321
53
0.0
259
2
1
36
-30.6
2,935
182
198
21
-17.3
12
1
1
0
-16.7
Tonga
650
103
115
23
-17.2
Tuvalu
26
10
11
47
-9.4
142
15
17
0
-8.0
French Polynesia Niue Samoa Tokelau
Wallis and Futuna a
Crude NMR refers to the crude net migration rate per 1,000
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Tuvalu—The TNA is co-located and shares a small building with the National Library on the western (lagoon) side of Fongafale on Funafuti atoll. It is on the main (single) road going south, known as Tuvalu Road, approximately 600 m south of the government center at Viaku. Its situation offers some protection from the prevailing easterly winds and rains, and tidal surges. However, it is somewhat exposed to occasional westerly gales. It is at a maximum height of 2.5 m above the normal high tide mark. How many people are at risk? It is reasonable at this point to ask how many people across the Pacific region will be affected by climate change? The simplest measure is to list the total populations for affected islands and nations (Table 3).
Table 4 Gross domestic product of Pacific islands and Nations (Derived from the CIA World Factbook 2010) Common name
Long form nation name
Gross domestic product (per capita)
Gross domestic product (official exchange rate)
American Samoa
Territory of American Samoa
$8,000 (2007 est.)
$462.2 million (2005)
Cook Islands
Cook Islands
$9,100 (2005 est.)
$183.2 million (2005 est.)
Fiji
Republic of the Fiji Islands
$4,400 (2010 est.)
$3.084 billion (2009 est.)
French Polynesia
Overseas Lands of French Polynesia
$18,000 (2004 est.)
$6.1 billion (2004)
Guam
Territory of Guam
$15,000 (2005 est.)
$2.773 billion (2001)
Kiribati
Republic of Kiribati
$6,200 (2010 est.)
$115.3 million (2009 est.)
Marshall Islands
Republic of the Marshall Islands
$2,500 (2008 est.)
$161.7 million (2008 est.)
Micronesia
Federated States of Micronesia
$2,200 (2008 est)
$238.1 million (2008)
Nauru
Republic of Nauru
$5,000 (2005 est.)
$19.2 million (2007)
New Caledonia
Territory of New Caledonia and Dependencies
$15,000 (2003 est.)
$3.3 billion (2003 est.)
Niue
Niue
$5,800 m (2003 est.)
$10.01 million (2003)
Northern Mariana Islands
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
$12,500 (2000 est.)
$633.4 million (2000)
Palau
Republic of Palau
$8,100 (2008 est.)
$164 million (2008)
Samoa
Independent State of Samoa
$5,500 (2010 est).
$573.7 million (2009 est.)
Solomon Islands
Solomon Islands
$2,900 (2010 est.)
$675.8 million (2009 est.)
Tokelau
Tokelau
$1,000 (1993 est.)
$NA
Tonga
Kingdom of Tonga
$6,100 (2010 est.)
$363 million (2010 est.)
Tuvalu
Tuvalu
$3,400 (2010 est.)
$14.94 million (2002)
Vanuatu
Republic of Vanuatu
$5,100 (2010 est.)
$560.5 million (2009 est.)
Wallis and Futuna
Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands
$3,800 (2004 est.)
$NA
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GDP/financial position of Pacific islands and nations It is likely that a significant financial investment will be required to address the problems facing national archives threatened by the rise in sea level. As a result, another key criterion to consider when selecting island and nations for further attention is their financial position (Table 4).
What is low lying? Any decision about what is considered to be a low-lying nation may be considered arbitrary, yet I consider this essential to narrow the focus of future research. A pattern can be clearly observed in the current data describing maximum heights above sea level. Most islands and nations exist with a high point of more than 100 m above sea level. However, six islands or nations have maximum heights above sea level of less than 100 m. It is considered that such a small group provides an acceptable sample for future research. As a result, any nation with a maximum elevation less than 100 m above sea level is considered to be low lying. It is also important that a candidate nation exists as an independent selfgoverning nation state in its own right. By eliminating all other forms of government or national status from further consideration, the following independent nations remain: Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Given the likely costs of relocating, a national archival collection is also necessary for any candidate islands or nations to have limited financial resources. Lastly, the national archival collections need to be located close to existing and projected sea levels, in order to establish an on-going threat to its survival.
Conclusion Having considered the slow, but ever present, level of sea level rise and the related effects on the ability of land to support human habitation, it is clear that low-lying nations in the Pacific will be seriously affected. Action will be required to address the challenges posed to the essentials required for human life in the short term. However, I suggest that time is still available to plan remedial actions to protect threatened national archival collections in the longer term. It is clear from the known geographic data of heights above sea level that some Pacific island nations are substantially lower than others and thus at increased risk of the effects of increasing sea levels. An analysis of the known geographic data shows that a minority of Pacific island nations have high points above sea level that do not exceed 100 m. Geographic height is not, however, the sole factor to be considered. The relative wealth of nations at risk from rising sea levels, along with their political status and relationships to wealthier and higher nations, must also be considered. A poorer independent nation is unlikely to be able to react to climate change threats to the same extent as that of a wealthier nation.
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Having considered all of these variables, I have decided to focus my future attention on the threats posed by climate change-induced sea-level rises to national archival collections in Kiribati, Nauru and Tuvalu. In order to develop a solution to the problems facing the national archives of these nations, a range of archival issues require further research. These issues include: • • • • • • • •
National archival budgets Staffing levels and expertise Size of holdings Type of records in the collections National archival legal regimes Proximity of archival collections to sea level Physical condition of government archives International treaties for the protection of cultural heritage. A field trip to these three nations is currently being planned to address the above.
References Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2011a) French Polynesia country brief. http://www. dfat.gov.au/geo/french_polynesia/polynesia_brief.html. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Australia Department of Foreign affairs and Trade (2011b) Guam Country Brief. http://www.dfat.gov.au/ geo/guam/guam_brief.html. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (n.d.) New Caledonia. http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/ new_caledonia/index.html. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Bedford R, Cooper J (n.d.) Migration and climate change in the Pacific. Unpublished chapter in possession of the author Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) (2010) The world factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ the-world-factbook/. Accessed 8 June 2010 Central Intelligence Agency (2011a) The world factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ the-world-factbook/geos/ps.html. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Central Intelligence Agency (2011b) The world factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ the-world-factbook/geos/cq.html. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Climate Institute (n.d.) Oceans & sea level rise. http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html. Accessed 10 Feb 2010 Federated States of Micronesia (1983) Legal information system of the federated states of Micronesia. http://www.fsmlaw.org/compact/. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Gordon-Clark H (2010) Email to the author 22 August 2010 Gordon-Clark M, Shurville S (2010) To take up arms against a sea of troubles: finding safe havens for the national archives of low-elevation Pacific islands and nations threatened by climate change. Arch Manuscr 38(1):78–93 Hawaii (n.d.) Glossary. http://www.state.hi.us/dbedt/czm/initiative/wec/html/reference/glossary.htm. Accessed 18 June 2010 Hezel FX (SJ) (2009) High water in the Low Atolls, Micronesian Counselor 76 (March) Hood D (2010) Email to the author 14 April 2010 Ikaniwai S (2010) Email to the author 10 September 2010 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007a) Climate change 2007 synthesis report, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2011 Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2007b) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M,
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Miller HL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (UK) and New York http://www.ipcc.ch/ publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_ science_basis.htm. Accessed on 5 July 2011 Maidment E (2010) Email to the author 14 July 2010 Mimura N, Nurse L, McLean RF, Agard J, Briguglio L, Lefale P, Payet R, Sem G (2007) Small islands. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 687–716 Mwemwenikeaki T (2010) Food fuel crisis and climate change: Perspectives from small island states. http://www.unescap.org/LDCCU/Meetings/HighLevel-RPD-food-fuel-crisis/Paper-Presentations/ FFFCrisis&ClimateChange/Kiribati-FFFCrisis&ClimateChange.pdf. Accessed 11 March 2010 New Zealand Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (n.d.) What we do. http://www. civildefence.govt.nz/memwebsite.nsf/wpg_URL/About-the-Ministry-What-we-do-Index?OpenDocument. Accessed 9 Sept 2010 New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (2011) Cook Islands. http://www.mfat.govt.nz/ Countries/Pacific/Cook-Islands.php. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR, Codignotto JO, Hay JE, Mclean RF, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas in Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Overy R (2010) Email to the author 23 August 2010 Raper S (2010) Climatic research unit information sheet number 10: Sea Level Rise, http://www.cru. uea.ac.uk/cru/info/slr/. Accessed 10 Feb 2010 Republic of Kiribati Environment and Conservation Division—Ministry of Environment, Land and Agricultural Development (2007) Republic of Kiribati national adaptation program of action Roper T (2009) The high stakes for small islands. Climate alert 19/4 Sawada Y, Shimizutani S (2005) Are people insured against natural disasters? Evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake in 1995. http://www2.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cemano/research/DP/ documents/coe-f-55.pdf. Accessed 11 June 2011 Tokelau (n.d.) Tokelau Government. http://www.tokelau.org.nz/. Accessed 02 Sept 2010 Tuvalu Ministry of Natural Resources, Environment, Agriculture and Lands (2007) Tuvalu’s national adaptation programme of action United Nations Environment Programme (2005) The environment in the news 6/12/2005. Accessed 28 Feb 2010 United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (2010) FEMA History. http://www.fema.gov/ about/history.shtm. Accessed 16 Feb 2011 Vecchi G, Swanson K, Sodden B (2008) Whither hurricane activity. Science 322:687–689
Author Biography Matthew Gordon-Clark has worked at State Records of South Australia since January 1995 and is currently Senior Archivist in the Reference and Access Services Team. Prior to this, he worked on the move of 23 km of the collection to its current location, as well as assisting in the design and planning of modifications to the current Gepps Cross premises. Matthew has experience developing archival standards, policies and guidelines, as well as the development of record disposal schedules. He has also served as a Convenor of the former COFSTA Current Record Issues Working Group. His current research interest relates to issues arising from the question of the impact of global warming and rising sea levels upon the management of archives within the PARBICA region.
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