Atomic Energy, Vol. 107, No. 5, 2009
PRESENT STATUS OF THE WORLD AND RUSSIAN URANIUM MINERAL-RAW MATERIAL RESOURCES
V. V. Shatalov and A. V. Tarkhanov
UDC 550.8:553.495+533.495
The sharply higher demand for uranium for nuclear power during 2010–2050 and possibilities of modern mineral-material resources to meet these needs are evaluated on the basis of an analysis of IAEA information and other publications. Forecasts to 2030 show adequate reserves and resources for producing the required amount of uranium. New deposits will supply production expansion beyond 2030.
The first decade of the 21st century is marked by a fuel crisis which increased interest in nuclear power. Many countries have planned accelerated growth of nuclear power. Especially grandiose plans have been made in Southeast Asia, with China planning 7.9-fold growth; India, 9.4-fold; Japan and South Korea, 1.5 fold. The uranium demand from 1991 to 2008 exceeded production by almost 500,000 tons. Under these conditions the following question cannot be avoided: are the uranium mineral-raw material resources capable of meeting such rapid growth in nuclear power? Uranium Demand. The data presented below are based on an analysis of IAEA information [1] as well as domestic and foreign publications. The forecast of the demand for nuclear power was made assuming that thermal reactors provide the power to mid-century, neglecting the contribution of fast reactors, with substantial growth of the installed capacity utilization factor. Nuclear materials from secondary sources (uranium from isotope enrichment tailings and spent fuel, plutonium) could replace 10% of the natural uranium in the future [2]. The forecast for world uranium demand is made using [1, 3] (Table 1). Thus, the maximum demand for natural uranium for use in nuclear power to 2050 is approximately 5·106 tons. The uranium export volumes in fuel elements delivered according to long-term contracts to Armenia, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine are reported by these countries in [1, 4]. The countries where Russian reactors are under construction or planned in the future have not been taken into account. Thus, if the plans are realized, the total uranium demand will be much higher than that presented in Table 2. A substantial fraction of the fuel elements is exported to Ukraine, which possesses substantial stores of uranium to meet all the needs of all its nuclear power plants. However, at the present time Ukraine produces only 800 tons of uranium with demand totaling 2400 tons [4]. In Table 2 it is assumed that Ukraine will produce and deliver to Russia 3000 tons U by 2020, 4000 tons U by 2025, and 5000 tons U by 2030. The demand indicated in Table 2 is the minimum demand, since domestic export of low-enrichment uranium, which comprises more than 10000 tons U/yr, is neglected. Uranium Reserves and Resources. IAEA publishes the uranium reserves taking account of the losses during production and hydrometallurgical processing (Table 3). Losses for different methods of uranium production range from 9 to 25%. The world proved uranium resources on January 1, 2007 were according to pricing 2970·103 tons at less than $40/kg, 4456.4·103 tons at less than $80/kg, and 5468.8·103 tons at less than $130/kg [1].
All-Russia Research Institute of Chemical Technology (VNIIKhT), Moscow, Russia. Translated from Atomnaya Énergiya, Vol. 107, No. 5, pp. 258–262, November, 2009. Original article submitted September 17, 2009. 310
1063-4258/09/10705-0310 ©2009 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.
TABLE 1. Forecast of World Uranium Demand for a Variant with Rapid Development of Nuclear Power from 2010 to 2050 Years
Uranium, 103 tons
2010–2014
404
2015–2019
462
2020–2024
522
2025–2029
582
2030–2034
640
2035–2039
700
2040–2044
760
2045–2050
984
Total
5054
TABLE 2. Forecast of Uranium Demand in Russia Taking Account of Fuel-Element Exports from 2010 to 2050, 103 tons Years
Nuclear power
Fuel-element exports
Total
2010–2019
71
52
123
2020–2029
99
52
151
2030–2039
120
46
166
2040–2050
158
53
211
Total
448
203
651
The forecasted resources are estimated according to the categories P1 – 3000·103 tons, categories P2 + P3 – 7630 tons [4] (Table 4). Russia places third with respect to uranium reserves and second with respect to uranium resources in the world (see Tables 3, 4). The fraction of cheap reserves in the main uranium producing countries reaches 83.3% in Canada, 96.2% in Australia, 63.3% in Kazakhstan, and 15.3% in Russia. In our country, more than half the uranium reserves and resources are located in the deposits of the Elkon uranium-ore region in the Republic of Yakutia (Sakha). They fall into the price category <$80/kg, but according to the data from several technical-economic validations made in recent years these reserves should be transferred to a higher price category, <$130/kg. The high prime cost of the reserves is due to the vein character of the deposits with thin ore bodies and the difficulty of exposure in the technological process because the main uranium mineral in the ores is brannerite, which does not easily dissolve in acids. Successful development of these deposits largely depends on improving the technology for reprocessing rebellious gold-brannerite ores, which the Institute has been working on in the last few years. Reserves and Resources for Securing Nuclear Power. When inventorying the total reserves and resources of the most reliable category P1, the total supply of natural uranium for world and Russian nuclear power is recorded (Table 5). The total provision of reserves in various price categories is calculated from the world demand for nuclear power 5054·103 tons and Russian demand 651·103 tons. Geological exploration reliably confirms the predicted resources P1. Ordinarily, they are tied to the flanks and depths of known deposits or to new deposits which have passed through the exploration-evaluation stage. Taking account of the predicted resources in the categories P2 and P3, 318% of the demand of world nuclear power is provisioned. Here the presently 311
TABLE 3. Recoverable Uranium as of January 1, 2007, 103 tons Price category, $/kg Country <40
<80
<130
Australia
1196
1216
1243
Kazakhstan
517.3
751.6
817.3
Russia
83.6
495.4
545.6
Republic of South Africa
234.7
343.2
435.1
Canada
352.4
423.2
423.2
USA
–
99
339
Brazil
139.6
231
278.4
Namibia
116.4
230.3
275
Niger
34.2
75.2
274
Ukraine
34.1
184.1
199.5
Jordan
111.8
111.8
111.8
Uzbekistan
86.2
86.2
111
Others (31 countries)
63.7
209.4
209.4
Total
2970
4456.4
5468.8
TALE 4. Forecasted Uranium Resources as of January 1, 2007, 103 tons Resource category Country
312
P1
P2 + P3
USA
1273
1340
Russia
356
600
Kazakhstan
300
500
Brazil
300
500
Canada
150
700
Republic of South Africa
110
113
Uzbekistan
85
135
Ukraine
15
255
Czechia
–
179
Mongolia
–
1 390
Vietnam
8
230
Others
403
1688
Total
3000
7630
TABLE 5. Provisions for the Demand for Nuclear Power to 2050 World
Price category of reserves
Domestic
and resources, $/kg
Uranium, 103 tons
Supply, %
Uranium, 103 tons
Supply, %
<40
2970
59
83.6
12.8
<80
4456
88
495.4
76.1
<130
5469
108
545.6
83.8
<130 + P1
168
168
846.9
130.1
TABLE 6. Uranium Production in 2007 Country
Uranium, tons
Canada
10000
Australia
7600
Kazakhstan
7245
Namibia
3800
Niger
3663
Russia
3381
Uzbekistan
2300
USA
2000
Ukraine
1000
Republic of South Africa
750
China
750
Brazil
340
Czechia
309
India
270
Other countries
169
Total
43577
unused resources of uranium in phosphorites, coals, lignites, and carbonotites as well as thorium deposits are neglected. Uranium resources in phosphorites alone are estimated to be 22·106 tons. Thus, the natural uranium reserves and resources do not present an obstacle to the development of world nuclear power in the 21st century. In Russia, the proved reserves in even the high price category provide only 83.8% of the demand for nuclear power. Exploratory work has increased substantially, which should lead to the discovery of new uranium deposits [4]. Uranium Production. In 2007, 43577 tons of uranium was produced in the world. This is 1463 tons more than in 2005 [1, 4] (Table 6). Russia is the sixth largest producer of uranium and meets only 20% of its yearly demand. The main uranium-producing countries plan to increase uranium production substantially by 2030 [1] (Table 7). The announced plans of all countries, except Jordan, are realistic, since they are based on the assimilation of known deposits, whose reserves are sufficient for organizing the indicated production. 313
TABLE 7. Forecast of Uranium Production to 2030, 103 tons Country
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Kazakhstan
18
22
23
23
23
Canada
19.27
19.27
19.27
19.27
19.27
Russia
5
12
18
18
18.5
Australia
10.2
19
22.4
17.7
17.7
Namibia
7
9
8
7
7
Republic of South Africa
4.86
6.32
6.32
6.32
6.32
USA
6.1
6.6
6.5
5.6
5.6
Niger
4.5
10
5.7
5.7
5
Ukraine
1.5
2
2.7
3.7
3.7
Uzbekistan
3
3
3
3.5
3.5
Jordan
2
2
2
2
2
India
0.98
1.2
1.6
2
2
Others (8 countries)
4.31
5.03
4.13
4.26
7.59
Total
86.72
117.42
122.62
118.05
117.85
Fig. 1. Correlation of yearly world uranium production (1) and demand (2).
Up to now, the demand for uranium in nuclear power substantially exceeds uranium production. This has led to a deficit of 500·103 tons, which is compensated from secondary sources (Fig. 1). According to forecasts, already by 2010 the world production of uranium should exceed the uranium demand by nuclear power and this situation will remain until almost 2030 (Fig. 2). Production will be expanded further via newly discovered deposits. Russia is now producing uranium at enterprises of the ARMZ uranium holding [5, 6]. Uranium production was 3527 tons in 2007, of which 3413 tons was produced in Russia (3037 tons, PPGKhO company; 350 tons, Dalur company, 26 tons, Khiagda company) and 114 tons at the joint enterprise Zarechnoe in Kazakhstan. The total demand in our country cannot be met from domestic mines. For this reason, production must be developed in nearby and distant bordering countries [5, 6] (Table 8). 314
Fig. 2. Correlation of uranium demand and production to 2030: production 1 – existing, under construction, planned, and forecasted uranium-producing centers; production 2 – existing, under construction uranium producing centers.
TABLE 8. Forecast of Uranium Supply for the Nuclear Industry in Russia from 2007 to 2050, 103 tons Uranium production Years Russian mines
Mines in Russia, CIS and non-CIS foreign countries
Deficit of Russian uranium
Deficit (surplus) of all uranium production
2007
35
3.7
–6
–5.8
2007–2009
11.6
17
–19.4
–14
2010
5.04
10.5
–5.4
0
2010–2019
111
156
–4
41
2020
19
27.5
6.3
14.8
2020–2029
195
280
56
141
2030
13.5
21.5
–1.9
6.1
2030–2039
148
233
12
73
2040
19.3
27.8
2.7
11.2
2040–2050
94
179
106
–21
2050
9
17.5
–10.8
–2.3
Total 2007–2050
570
883
–75
218
On the whole, the problem of supplying natural uranium for nuclear power in the first half of the 21st century can be solved successfully provided that work including increasing reserves at mines which are operating or under construction, searching for new deposits, development of joint enterprises, and export of uranium from close and distant neighboring countries is accelerated. Thus far it is believed that Russian stocks, mainly the uranium in tailings from isotopic enrichment, are adequate for many years. These data are not published, but the total amount of uranium remaining in secondary sources can be calculated according to the uranium produced since 1945 and actually used [1, 4]. 315
Fig. 3. World production (1) and use (2) of uranium from 1945 to 2008.
According to IAEA assessment [1], world production of uranium from 1945 to 2008 was 2325·103 tons, 1700·103 tons has been used, and 625·103 tons remains (Fig. 3). According to IAEA estimates, another ~450·103 tons U can be extracted from tailings from diffusion isotopic enrichment. If it is assumed with large tolerance that up to 10% can be extracted from spent fuel, i.e., about 170·103 tons, then the stocks of all forms of storage, including in the form of weapons, comprise 1245·103 tons. About 500·103 tons has been used to compensate for the deficit of natural uranium; therefore, 745·103 tons remains unused. If only these reserves are used, then they will be sufficient for world nuclear power production for only 9–10 yr. Here it is necessary to take account of the fact that a large part of the reserves is stored in the form of strategic nuclear weapons. Consequently, it can be stated that the problem of uranium supply in the 21st century will be solved by expanding the production of natural uranium and not from secondary sources.
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316
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