RESIDENTIAL SPATIAL MOBILITY AND URBAN CHANGE

Sako Musterd

Introduction S eg reg at i o n o f the residents of urban areas in the Netherlands (and elsewhere) is continually increasing. The spatial segregation b et w een the various population c a t e g o r i e s has become most apparent on the level of city regions. Who is not familiar with the suburbanization of many family households who turn their back on the central city. However, this segregation of the various population c a t e g o r i e s does not only take place on the scale of the city region. S eg reg a ti o n can also be discerned within the cen t r al cities in a region, and this is likely to increase in the future (Van Engelsdorp Gastelaars, 1985:29). We can infer that these developments will continue by studying the processes of supply and demand on the housing market. In the next paragraph we will study the processes of supply and demand and e x a m i n e their consequences for the spatial segregation. We will also discuss some of the l i t e r a t u r e on the backgrounds of spatial segregation. This l i t e r a t u r e shows that several processes on the housing market point to the essential role played by c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the residential environment in the s e g r e g a t i o n of different household types. However, it also becomes cl ear that not all the l i t e r a t u r e on household s e g r eg at i o n recognizes this factor. In this a r t i c l e we would like to c o n c e n t r a t e on the influence of the type and the location of the residential environment, We will do this empirically a f t e r the following paragraph. We will then make use of data r e c e n t l y published in my dissertation (Musterd, 1985). The a r ti c l e will end with several conclusions and suggestions for future policy. Supply and demand The first f a c t o r that could be of i m p o r t a n c e in stimulating the segregation of households is the relaxation of the Dutch housing market. This has only b e c o m e apparent during the last few years. Even in 1982, Van Weesep showed that the housing supply in the Netherlands was c~uantitatively and q u a l i t a t i v e l y below standard, He noted that toward the end of the seventies t h er e was an increasing housing shortage, growing waiting lists of people looking for housing and that the housing wishes of growing groups of the population could not be satisfied (Van Weesep, 1982). Even though there is no

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g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t a b o u t t h e r e l a x a t i o n of t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t (e.g. De Vrije, 1986:22-27) s e v e r a l s o u r c e s do p o i n t to a c h a n g e in t h e s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d r e l a t i o n s h i p (e.g. Van F u l p e n , 1986:33-39). T h e D u t c h M i n i s t r y o f Housing, P h y s i c a l P l a n n i n g a n d E n v i r o n m e n t also p o i n t s o u t t h e d e c r e a s e of s h o r t a g e s a n d t h e i n c r e a s e of c h o i c e on t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t {Koopman, 1985:3-6). V a c a n c y p r o b l e m s in c e r t a i n s u b s e c t i o n s of t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e also p o i n t e d out. T h e s e p r o b l e m s c a n b e p a r t l y a s c r i b e d to t h e p r i c e a n d q u a l i t y of t h e s e h o u s e s in r e l a t i o n to t h e s u p p l y in o t h e r m a r k e t s e g m e n t s , a n d p a r t ly to t h e e c o n o m i c s i t u a t i o n of m a n y h o u s e h o l d s (low i n c o m e , h i g h u n e m p l o y m e n t ) . T h e f a c t is t h a t m a n y of t h e h o u s e s in t h e s e m a r k e t s e g m e n t s a r e p u l l e d i n t o a d o w n w a r d s p i r a l in w h i c h t h e y r e a c h t h e b o t t o m o f t h e h o u s i n g h i e r a r c h y in a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t t i m e . This w o r s e n s t h e i r i m a g e a n d m a k e s t h e m e v e n m o r e d i f f i c u l t to r e n t or sell. In D u t c h c i t i e s it i:~ p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e p o s t - w a r , m u l t i - f a m i l y h o u s i n g b u i l t in t h e s i x t i e s a n d s e v e n t i e s t h a t is a f f e c t e d in this way (e.g. P r a k & P r i e m u s , 1985; K e m p e n , 1986). V a c a n c i e s m a y n o t b e i n t e r p r e t e d as a sign t h a t t h e h o u s i n g s h o r t a g e h a d d i s s o l v e d b u t t h e y c o u l d i n d i c a t e a r e l a x a t i o n of t h e h o u s i n g m~trket in c e r t a i n a r e a s . H o w e v e r , t h i s is not t h e only i n d i c a t i o n . It is s o m e t i m e s s h o w n t h a t t h e n u m b e r of long t e r m a p p l i c a n t s on h o u s i n g w a i t i n g lists is d e c r e a s i n g and t h a t n o n - c o m m e r cial r e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s s o m e t i m e s l o w e r t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s (e.g. E v a l u a ties, enz., 1984:32; W o n i n g b o u w in N e d e r l a n d , 1983:38; N e l i s s e n , 1985:130}. In s h o r t t w o of t h e four f i l t e r s d i s c u s s e d by M u r i e {1974:20) in his t h e o r y of m o b i l i t y ( a c c e s s and a v a i l a b i l i t y ) a r e b e c o m i n g m o r e p e r m e a b l e a n d t h e r e f o r e less c o n s t r a i n i n g t h a n b e f o r e . This c o n t r i b u t e s to an i n c r e a s e in c h o i c e , i n c l u d i n g c h o i c e of r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t . T h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f s e g r e g a t i o n has therefore increased. T h e s e c o n d f a c t o r - a p a r t i c u l a r i n s t a n c e of t h e f i r s t f a c t o r - w h i c h i n c r e a s e s t h e c h o i c e w i t h i n t h e u r b a n a r e a and has a s e g r e g a t i n g e f f e c t , is t h e i n c r e a s e d b u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y and t h e m a t c h i n g local g o v e r n m e n t policy w i t h i n t h e e x i s t i n g c i t i e s . T h e n u m b e r of p r i v a t e and n o n - p r i v a t e i n i t i a t i v e s is i n c r e a s i n g . A f t e r a p e r i o d in w h i c h f i r s t c i t y - f o r m i n g a n d l a t e r s p i l l - o v e r to g r o w t h c e n t r e s w e r e t h e m a i n goals, a new e l a n w h i c h c o n c e n t r a t e s on t h e i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of t h e r e s i d e n t i a l f u n c t i o n of t h e c i t y is n o t i c e a b l e ( S t r u c t u u r s c h e t s S t e d e l i j k e G e b i e d e n , 1983). T h e r e a r e a t t e m p t s to r a p i d l y fill up t h e v a c a n t lots while h o u s e i m p r o v e m e n t h a s b e c o m e b e f o r e d e m o l i s h m e n t ( C o r t i e , M u s t e r d & W e s t e r t e r p , 1986). O c c a s i o n a l l y one c a n e v e n s p e a k of g e n t r i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s e s ( C o r t i e a.o., 1984). As well as this t h e r e a r e m a n y m u n i c i p a l i t i e s who h a v e s e t r e s i d e n t i a l i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n as o n e o f t h e i r m a i n a i m s . T h e D u t c h policy m a k e r s h a v e n a m e d t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s ' c o m p a c t c i t y p o l i c y ' . It is n o t a b l e t h a t m a n y b u i l d e r s a n d p l a n n e r s c o n t r i b u t e to t h e s e g r e g a t i o n by b u i l d i n g for s m a l l o n e a n d t w o p e r s o n h o u s e h o l d in i n n e r c i t y l o c a t i o n s a n d for f a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n on t h e o u t s k i r t s of t h e c i t y . A t h i r d - m o r e s p e c i f i c - f a c t o r is t h e a r r i v a l of n e w c a t e g o r i e s of h o u s e h o l d s , w i t h t h e i r own h o u s i n g n e e d s . T h e n u m b e r of o n e a n d t w o p e r s o n household, single-parent families, divorced people etc. has increased cons i d e r a b l y o v e r t h e p a s t l 0 y e a r s a n d h a s b e c o m e a g r o u p of q u i t e s o m e i m p o r t a n c e . With s o m e d e l a y t h e y o u n g a m o n g t h e m h a v e g a i n e d t h e legal r i g h t to housing, and h o u s i n g h a s b e e n b u i l t e s p e c i a l l y for t h e m in t h e p r i v a t e as

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well as t h e n o n - c o m m e r c i a l r e n t a l s e c t o r . It is also this f a s t g r o w i n g p o p u l a t i o n c a t e g o r y , w h i c h has for a long t i m e , e v e n w h e n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t was very tense, considered residential environment aspects very important. It is well k n o w n t h a t a large s e g m e n t of t h i s c a t e g o r y is a t t r a c t e d to t h e i n n e r c i t y a r e a s and c o n t i n u e s to f u r t h e r t h e s e g r e g a t i o n t h e r e (e.g. D e n D r a a k , 1985). Such an o r i e n t a t i o n on t h e i n n e r c i t y c a n be b r o u g h t i n t o r e l a t i o n w i t h t h e a i m s to m a t c h h o u s e a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d s i t u a t i o n , a c t i v i t i e s , s p a t i a l b e h a v i o u r a n d l i f e - s t y l e (Van E n g e l s d o r p G a s t e l a a r s , 1985:29). This o r i e n t a t i o n c o u l d also b e e x p l a i n e d by t h e f a c t t h a t s u c h a r e a s h a v e a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e s h a r e of h o u s i n g t h a t is s u i t a b l e for t h i s c a t e g o r y (e.g. H o e k v e l d a.o., 1981:13). O n e o t h e r p o i n t t h a t should be m a d e c o n c e r n i n g t h i s ' n e w ' i n n e r c i t y c a t e g o r y of h o u s e h o l d s , is t h a t d e m o g r a p h i c t r e n d s show t h a t t h e supply of y o u n g p e o p l e is d e c r e a s i n g a n d will co,~tinue to do so, as will t h e d e m a n d e x e r t e d by t h e m (see D i e l e m a n & S c h o u w , 1986:73ff). T h e s e p r o s p e c t s h o l d l i t t l e c o n s e q u e n c e for t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s t h a t c a n b e d i s c e r n e d a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e , b u t f r o m a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1990 o n w a r d s t h e i n n e r c i t y a r e a s will h a v e to find s o m e way of r e t a i n i n g t h e o l d e r ' n e w ' h o u s e h o l d s to c o m p e n s a t e for t h e d e c l i n e in d e m a n d f r o m young g e n e r a t i o n s . T h e c h i l d l e s s one and t w o p e r s o n h o u s e h o l d s ( a m o n g s t whom t h e r e l a t i v e l y well off, two p a y c h e c k h o u s e h o l d s ) a p p e a r to be e s p e c i a l l y s u s c e p t i b l e as it is t h e y who (in a p r e v i o u s a g e c a t e g o r y ) i n i t i a t e d t h e t r e n d to t h e c i t y (see also C o r t i e , M u s t e r d & W e s t e r t e r p , 1986). F i n a l l y , a f o u r t h f a c t o r , c o n c e r n s t h e h o m o g e n i s i n g p r o c e s s e s of h o u s e h o l d s (sort by sort) which h a v e b e e n a p p a r e n t for s o m e t i m e now ( R o b s o n , 1975; Kok, 1980). T h e s e c a n be e i t h e r d e m o g r a p h i c a l or social. T h e p r o c e s s e s a r e r e a l l y n o t new at all. S e g r e g a t i o n p a t t e r n s h a v e b e e n d e s c r i b e d by t h e H u m a n E c o l o g y School and by way o f s o c i a l a r e a a n a l y s e s and f a c t o r i a l e c o l o g i e s (e.g. B a s s e t t & Short, 1980). T h e s e w e r e - o f t e n on p r e s u m p t i o n a s c r i b e d to t h e t e n d e n c y of h o u s e h o l d s to live n e a r h o u s e h o l d s of t h e s a m e t y p e . E x p l a n a t i o n s on t h e i n d i v i d u a l l e v e l w e r e h o w e v e r h a r d to find. L a t e r , m o r e a t t e n t i o n was g i v e n to t h a t l e v e l of a n a l y s i s , e s p e c i a l l y in m o b i l i t y s t u dies (e.g. Rossi, 1955 and 1980; B o u r n e , 1981; C l a r k , 1981), e v e n t h o u g h t h e s p a t i a l e f f e c t s of m o b i l i t y w e r e n o t a l w a y s t h e c e n t r a l t h e m e . A n e x a m p l e of an e m p i r i c a l s t u d y o f s e g r e g a t i o n a n d h o m o g e n i s a t i o n is t h e s t u d y by F r e y and Kobrin (1982:270). T h e y c a m e to t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t u r b a n r e n e w a l should aim to build m a i n l y for o n e p e r s o n h o u s e h o l d s . In t h e i r r e s e a r c h , y o u n g c o u p l e s s h o w e d a r e l a t i v e l y s t r o n g t e n d e n c y to m o v e to t h e suburbs. T h e o v e r a l l v i e w is a c o n t i n u i n g s p a t i a l s e g r e g a t i o n of h o u s e h o l d s a c c o r d i n g to t h e i r c o m p o s i t i o n . We also n o t e t h a t t h e s e g r e g a t i o n s h o u l d n o t o n l y b e a s c r i b e d to c h o i c e b u t is also a r e s u l t of c o n s t r a i n t s . T h e f a c t r e m a i n s t h a t s e g r e g a t i o n c o u l d b e c o m e a g r e a t deal s t r o n g e r if t h e c o n s t r a i n t s o n m o b i l i t y in s o m e way d i s a p p e a r e d (e.g. K r e i b i c h & P e t r i , 1982:1195ff). We h a v e a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d t h a t t h e i n f l u e n c e of r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t d i f f e r e n c e s on s e g r e g a t i o n p r o c e s s e s h a s a l w a y s e x i s t e d but s e e m t o h a v e r e c e n t l y g a i n e d i n i m p o r t a n c e . T h e o r e t i c a l e x p l a n a t i o n s of s e g r e g a t i o n in w h i c h t h e t y p e a n d l o c a t i o n of t h e r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t h a v e b e e n e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r e d (e.g. W o l p e r t , 1965; Robson, 1975; B o u r n e , 1976 and 1981, L e v e n &

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Mark, 1977; Grunfeld, 1983; Van Engelsdorp Gastelaars, 1985) have gained i m p o r t a n c e compared to theories and explanations which don't c l e a r l y distinguish the f a c t o r residential e n v i r o n m e n t as in the studies in which the segregation of households is either implicitly or explicitly ascribed to the locational p at t er n of the housing stock (e.g. Morgan, 1976:96; Murie, Niner & Watson, 1976; Rossi, 1980; Hoekveld a~ 1981:13&151; Blauw, 1985:86). In connection with this, and perhaps an illustration of what we just mentioned, locational background information is not often considered in relation to the b e f o r e mentioned problems in sections of the post-war housing stock (e.g. several contributions in Prak & Priemus, 1985). Spatial segregation and d i f f e r e n c e s in residential e n v i r o n m e n t We have made use of data on the individual level, from the r e g i s t r a r ' s records, records of the housing stock (both per I-1-1980) and the r e g i s t e r of those moving (January 1977 to j a n u a r y 1981) in the municipality of Tilburg (population 150,000). The information has been linked t o g e t h e r for each individual. It is impossible to disc,ass directly the underlying supply variables (distribution methods and goals of those giving out housing, g a t e - k e e p e r decision making etc.) just as it is impossible to discuss the underlying demand variables (resolutions, aspirations, wishes etc.). We are able to consider the actual manifest demand (by various types of households) and the actual manifest composition of the supply (e.g. per tenure category). The i m p o r t a n c e of considering the actual process is c le a r l y recognized when it co m es to the demand side. The discrepancy b e tw e e n actual and e x p e c t e d behaviour is often mentioned in this case (e.g. Duncan & Newman, 1976). When considering the functioning of the supply side a similar line of reasoning would seem useful. This study c o n c e n t r a t e s on population change by way of intra-urban mobility. About 9% of the Tilburg population moves house each year, a figure that is similar to that of o th e r cities in The Netherlands of comparable size (see Clark & Everaers, 1981). We noted to which dwellings and to which residential environments the households actually moved (1). We distinguished 9 household types and 9 dwelling types. The smallest spatial unit that could be used was the neighbourhood (of which there are some 200). The 9 household c a t e g o r i e s mainly differ in demographical sense and in their composition. They include t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s of solitary movers (i.e. < 30 years, 30-50 years, > 50 years), i n c o m p l e t e families (single-parent families), families with children and couples without children, unmarried joint movers, divorced households and Mediterranean households. This classification also makes it possible to c o m p a r e social-economically weaker c a t e g o r i e s (mainly Mediterranean, divorced and single-parent households) to the stronger c a t e gories. It is impossible to obtain any great depth in the comparison because other social-economic variables on the demand side are missing in the dataset. The 9 dwelling types have been d e t e r m i n e d on the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : building type (i.e. single or multi-family), time of building (pre-war or post-war), size ( < 100 m or > 100 m ) and tenure situation (municipal, housing association, private landlord, owner-occupied). The importance of these c h a r a c t e r -

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i s t i c s h a s b e e n e x p l i c i t l y d e m o n s t r a t e d by M o r g a n (1976), Murie, N i n e r & W a t s o n (1976) and Clark, D e u r l o o & D i e l e m a n (1984) a n d for t h e D u t c h h o u s ing m a r k e t in p a r t i c u l a r by D e u r l o o , D i e l e m a n & H o o i m e y e r (1986). T h e s e f o u r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s lead to a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of 32 types. On t h e basis of v a r i ous a n a l y s e s (see M u s t e r d , 1 9 8 5 : t 2 8 f f ) t h e y h a v e b e e n r e d u c e d to 9 t y p e s (see t a b l e 1). T h e m u n i c i p a l i t y h a s d e l i m i t e d t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d s using h o m o geneity criteria concerning the dwellings and the residents. T A B L E 1.

P e r c e n t a g e of d w e l l i n g s t h a t c h a n g e d o c c u p i e r b e t w e e n 19771981, p e r d w e l l i n g t y p e a n d p e r h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y , in T i l b u r g . 1

2

y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (<30 yrs) 25 26 m i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (30-50 yrs) 20 18 old s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (>50 yrs) 8 16 married couples without children 6 10 famielies with children 20 11 single-parent families 12 7 joint movers 2 4 Mediterranean households 6 6 divorced households 16 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

= = = = = = = = =

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 tot

29 t2 5 6 21 10 3 4 13

20 12 20 15 16 6 2 5 11

24 14 8 12 22 7 3 5 11

39 20 42 51 31 16 7 9 I0 12 3 3 22 6 9 11 19 10 9 12 12 36 4 9 18 2 2 2 2 5 4 3 4 4 3 10 2 2 4 6 4 7 6 9

m u n i c i p a l public r e n t a l , s m a l l , p r e - w a r m u n i c i p a l public r e n t a l , s m a l l , p o s t - w a r m u n i c i p a l public r e n t a l , l a r g e housing association rental, small housing association rental, large owner-occupier, pre-war owner-occupier, post-war private sector rental, small private sector rental, large

T h e c r u x of this s t u d y is to d e t e r m i n e w h e t h e r e a c h h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y m o v i n g in to an a r e a is l a r g e r or s m a l l e r t h a n t h e n u m b e r t h a t c a n b e e x p e c t e d w h e n c o n s i d e r i n g t h e d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k o f t h a t a r e a . L o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s a r e v e r y s u i t a b l e for this t y p e of e x e r c i s e . T h e y 9g i v e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e r a t e of a c e r t a i n o c c u r r e n c e in an a r e a of a low s c a l e level e.g. n e i g h b o u r h o o d , in c o m p a r i s o n to t h e r a t e o f o c c u r r e n c e a t a h i g h e r s c a l e level e.g. a c i t y . In this s t u d y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p c o n c e r n s f i g u r e s t h a t a r e of an individual level. F o r t h e c i t y a n d for e v e r y n e i g h b o u r h o o d (or c l u s t e r of n e i g h b o u r h o o d s ) we k n o w e x a c t l y w h i c h h o u s e h o l d m o v e d to w h i c h d w e l l i n g . This m e a n s t h a t we c a n d e t e r m i n e t h e l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t p e r h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y a n d p e r d w e l l i n g t y p e - p e r n e i g h b o u r h o o d or c l u s t e r o f n e i g h b o u r h o o d s . T h e s p a t i a l p a t t e r n o f v a l u e s t h a t a r e h i g h e r or l o w e r t h a n the expected values can then be confronted with residential environment c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h o s e a r e a s . We c o u l d use r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s a.o. f o r t h i s p u r p o s e , or we could s t u d y t h e r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t p r o f i l e s of t h e r e s u l t ing c l u s t e r s . We will now discuss b o t h p o s s i b i l i t i e s .

327

T A B L E 2.

P e r c e n t a g e of h o u s e h o l d s t h a t m o v e d h o u s e b e t w e e n 19771981, p e r d w e l l i n g t y p e a n d p e r h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y , in T i l b u r g . I* 2

5

6

y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (<30 yrs) 4 5 5 9 13 m i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (30-50 yrs) 8 8 5 13 20 old s o l i t a r y m o v e r s (>50 yrs) 4 10 3 28 15 married couples without children 2 5 3 16 17 families with children 6 4 7 12 22 single-parent families 13 9 t l 17 25 joint movers 3 7 5 9 18 Mediterranean households 6 8 5 15 19 divorced households 9 11 8 16 21

20 20 5 15 11 7 20 35 11

all h o u s e h o l d s

5

6

3

4

7

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9 tot

10 14 19 100 9 8 9 t00 5 22 7 100 25 8 9 100 32 2 6 100 7 5 6 100 13 11 14 100 2 5 6 I00 7 8 8 100

5 13 17 16 16 10 12 100

*See T a b l e 1 for i n d e x of d w e l l i n g types. T a b l e s I a n d 2 a r e i m p o r t a n t as a f r a m e w o r k for d i s c u s s i n g t h e r e s u l t s . S o m e m o r e or less a l r e a d y k n o w n r e s u l t s c a n be d e d u c e d . Y o u n g p e o p l e a r e m o s t d y n a m i c , f a m i l i e s least; m i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y h o u s e h o l d s , d i v o r c e d and M e d i t e r r a n e a n h o u s e h o l d s t e n d to m o v e r e l a t i v e l y o f t e n , at l e a s t w h e n c o m p a r e d to t h e n u m b e r of h o u s e h o l d in t h e s e categories. All d w e l l i n g t y p e s a r e m o s t f r e q u e n t l y i n h a b i t e d by y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of o w n e r - o c c u p i e d housing, in w h i c h 57% of t h e n e w o c c u p a n t s a r e f a m i l i e s ( f a m i l i e s form 35% of t h e o c c u p a n t s of all t h e h o u s i n g t y p e s t o g e t h e r ) . Of t h o s e m o v i n g i n t o p r e - w a r , o w n e r o c c u p i e d h o u s e s and p r i v a t e s e c t o r , r e n t a l houses, y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s form the dominant category. T h e public r e n t a l h o u s i n g s e c t o r r e c e i v e d a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e i n f l u x o f m i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y m o v e r s . Into t h e s m a l l p r i v a t e a n d h o u s i n g a s s o c i a t i o n r e n t a l s e c t o r t h e i n f l u x is d o m i n a t e d by t h e old s o l i t a r y m o v e r s . T h e n o n - c o m m e r c i a l h o u s i n g s e c t o r plays a r e l a t i v e l y i m p o r t a n t r o l e as f a r as t h e w e a k e r p o p u l a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s a r e c o n c e r n e d ( s i n g l e - p a r e n t , Mediterranean and divorced). Y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s m a i n l y m o v e to c h e a p e r o w n e r - o c c u p i e r h o u s e s a n d to p r i v a t e s e c t o r r e n t a l houses. J o i n t m o v e r s show a s i m i l a r b u t not as s t r o n g p a t t e r n . M i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y m o v e r s r e l a t i v e l y o f t e n find t h e i r h o m e s in t h e n o n commercial sector. Old s o l i t a r y m o v e r s t e n d t o m o v e to s m a l l housing a s s o c i a t i o n h o m e s a n d to s m a l l , p r i v a t e s e c t o r , r e n t a l h o u s i n g ( p r o b a b l y q u i t e o f t e n h o u s i n g for t h e elderly). F a ' n i l i e s find t h e i r h o m e s in t h e p o s t - w a r , h o u s i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s e c t o r a n d in t h e m o r e r e c e n t o w n e r - o c c u p i e r h o u s i n g s e c t o r . S i n g l e - p a r e n t f a m i l i e s (75%), M e d i t e r r a n e a n h o u s e h o l d s (53%) a n d div o r c e d , h o u s e h o l d s (65%) a r e all q u i t e s t r o n g l y a t t r a c t e d to t h e n o n -

-

-

-

328

c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r (all households 46%). The r e m a i n i n g M e d i t e r r a n e a n s a r e p r i m a r i l y o r i e n t e d towards older, o w n e r - o c c u p i e r housing. T h e i n f o r m a t i o n in both tables is not really v e r y shocking and g e n e r a l l y a g r e e s with relationships found e a r l i e r in The N e t h e r l a n d s (see a.o. P r i e m u s , 1984; D i e l e m a n , 1985). We can establish that when c o n s i d e r i n g i n t r a - u r b a n mobility, c e r t a i n household c a t e g o r i e s can be linked to c e r t a i n dwelling types, or v i c e versa, t h a t c e r t a i n dwelling types a t t r a c t c e r t a i n household c a t e g o r i e s . Is this not an i m p o r t a n t indication that the d i s t r i b u t i o n of housing types d e t e r m i n e s the d i s t r i b u t i o n of household c a t e g o r i e s o v e r the c i t y ? In o r d e r to m a k e s o m e a t t e m p t at answering this q u e s t i o n we h a v e d e t e r m i n e d all the d a t a in t a b l e 1 per neighbourhood and for e a c h household c a t e g o r y s e p a r a t e l y . A f t e r this the l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s w e r e d e t e r m i n e d for e a c h household c a t e g o r y per neighbourhood.

ntype

mtype ij ij rtype - - - . / - ~ , in which: ij 9 9 E ntype E m t y p e j=l i=1

rtypeij ntypeij

= l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t for household c a t e g o r y j, for dwelling t y p e i. = dwellings of type i m o v e d to by household c a t e g o r y j, per neighbourhood.

9 ntypeij

j=

1

dwellings of t y p e i m o v e d to by all household c a t e g o r i e s , per neighbourhood.

mtypeij

= s a m e as ntypeij for the whole municipality.

9 E mtypeij j=l

9 = same as E i=1

n t y p e i j , for the whole m u n i c i p a l i t y .

We now know the spatial d i s t r i b u t i o n o f over and under r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f e a c h household c a t e g o r y and e a c h d w e l l i n g t y p e (giving 81 d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t terns). A s t r o n g s i m p l i f i c a t i o n of this m u c h too d e t a i l e d results was o b t a i n e d by d e t e r m i n i n g the l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t per household c a t e g o r y , per n e i g h b o u r hood for all the dwelling types t o g e t h e r . This was possible as the d i s t r i b u t i o n p a t t e r n of t h e s e l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s was v e r y c o n s i s t e n t with the m o r e d e t a i l ed p a t t e r n per d w e l l i n g type (2). In o t h e r words, if a c e r t a i n household c a t e gory is o v e r - r e p r e s e n t e d in a c e r t a i n a r e a it is (in a l m o s t all cases) also o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d in e a c h s e p a r a t e dwelling type. This f a c t alone i n d i c a t e s t h a t

329

FIGURE 1. Location quotients of young solitary movers, families with children and divorced households respectively.

~LESS []

.50

eL.G0 i

-

9 1.50

L-50 -

< 2.00

~Z.OO

330

THQN .GO ~ < 1.00

OR HIGHER

there are other relevant factors than the housing characteristics which we have considered here. F o r t h e p u r p o s e of i l l u s t r a t i o n we h a v e g i v e n s o m e p a t t e r n s of o v e r / u n d e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n in f i g u r e i. T h e o r i e n t a t i o n o f young s o l i t a r y m o v e r s t o w a r d s c e n t r a l a r e a s is c l e a r , as is t h a t of f a m i l i e s w i t h c h i l d r e n to t h e o u t s k i r t s of t h e c i t y ( t h e y also, to s o m e e x t e n t , r e p r e s e n t t h e f a m i l i e s w i t h o u t c h i l d r e n ) . C a t e g o r i e s w i t h less c h a n c e s , s i n g l e - p a r e n t , M e d i t e r r a n e a n a n d d i v o r c e d h o u s e h o l d s , of w h i c h we h a v e t a k e n t h e l a t t e r as an e x a m p l e o f t h i s c a t e g o r y , a r e mainly, but not e x c l u s i v e l y , o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d in ( h o m o g e n e o u s ) r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s at t h e e d g e of t h e old c i t y a n d in c e r t a i n a r e a s w i t h a lot of ( u n w a n t e d ) high rise f l a t s in N o r t h T i l b u r g . C a n we now e x p l a i n t h e v a r i a t i o n in l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s using t h e r e s i d e n tial e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ? F i r s t , we m u s t d e c i d e w h i c h r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e to b e s e l e c t e d . A b r o a d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t h a t is o f t e n u s e d is t h e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n s o c i a l (and s o c i a l - d e m o g r a p h i c ) , p h y s ical a n d l o c a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . It is p o s s i b l e to c r e a t e a v e r y e x t e n s i v e list of v a r i a b l e s . D e p e n d i n g on t h e m e t h o d of a n a l y s i s a s e l e c t i o n h a s to be m a d e f r o m this list. It is q u i t e a c c e p t a b l e to h a v e s e v e r a l s t r o n g l y r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s w h e n m a k i n g an e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o f i l e , this would be less u s e f u l in a r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n . N e x t , we s t a r t to e x a m i n e a few r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s , w i t h , for e a c h h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y , t h e l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s as d e p e n d e n t v a r i a bles and t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . In p r i n c i p l e , we c a n c o m e up w i t h s e t s of e x p l a i n i n g v a r i a b l e s w h i c h c a n give us a m a x i m a l e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e . T h e s e s e t s would t h e n d i f f e r p e r h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y . H o w e v e r , for s e v e r a l r e a s o n s , ( c o m p a r a b i l i t y , r e l e v a n c e for policy m a k i n g e t c . ) it is p r e f e r a b l e to d e t e r m i n e o n e s e t of i n d e p e n d e n t variables. Table 3 shows the optimal set for all the household categories (3) and also some other relevant information concerning the regression analyses. T h e p e r c e n t a g e of e m p l o y e d p e r s o n s in an a r e a is an i n d i c a t i o n of t h e l e v e l of f u n c t i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n in a n e i g h b o u r h o o d (only a r e a s w i t h m o r e t h a n 40 residents have been selected, the pure employment areas have therefore not b e e n i n c l u d e d in t h e a n a l y s e s ) , a g e v a r i a b l e s d e t e r m i n e t h e d e m o g r a p h i c s t r u c t u r e , t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f M e d i t e r r a n e a n s a n d p e o p l e on w e l f a r e i n d i c a t e t h e s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e ; t h e p e r c e n t a g e of p r i v a t e s e c t o r r e n t a l h o u s i n g a n d t h e p e r c e n t a g e of d w e l l i n g l a c k i n g a t l e a s t t w o e l e m e n t a r y s e r v i c e s r e p r e s e n t a m i x t u r e of p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e a r e a . T h e R 2 v a l u e s (% e x p l a i n e d v a r i a n c e ) show t h a t t h e r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t v a r i a b l e s e x p l a i n a l a r g e p a r t of t h e v a r i a n c e for young s o l i t a r y m o v e r s a n d M e d i t e r r a n e a n s . E s p e c i a l l y for m a r r i e d c o u p l e s w i t h o u t c h i l d r e n , b u t also for o t h e r c a t e g o r i e s , t h e p e r c e n t a g e is c l e a r l y lower, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t , f o r t h e m , t h e r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t is less of a d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r in t h e i r r e l a t i v e c h o i c e of h o u s i n g l o c a t i o n . T h e r e is a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e i n f l u x o f y o u n g s o l i t a r y m o v e r s to a r e a s in w h i c h a lot of young p e o p l e a l r e a d y live a n d to c e n t r a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d s w h e r e t h e r e is a r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l o f f u n c t i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n ( t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n d i s t a n c e to t h e c e n t r e a n d t h e p e r c e n t a g e of e m p l o y e d p e r s o n s is r e s p o n s i b l e for t h e low B - v a l u e of t h e l a s t v a r i a b l e ) . O v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of

331

TABLE 3.

Standardized partial regression c o e f f i c i e n t s (Beta-weights) for nine (explaining) independent variables and the location quotients as dependent variable (to be explained).

dist

empl

age2

age3

age7

medi

I*-0,25 2 -0,09 3 0,20 4 0,31 5 -0,02 6 0,06 7 -0,01 8 0,03 9 0,03

0,02 0, I0 0,08 0,31 0,19 0, i i 0,27 -0,01 0,17

0,45 -0,06 -0,07 -0,27 -0,23 -0,05 -0,27 -0,01 -0,25

0,38 -0,09 -0,34 0,01 -0,42 -0,18 -0,13 -0,02 -0,27

-0,06 0,02 0,53 0,12 -0,31 -0,17 -0,19 0,04 0,07

-0,12 0,47 -0,01 -0,12 0,19 -0,17 0,88 -0,07

welf

priv

-0,04 0,19 0,09 -0,15 0, II 0,09 -0, i0 0,06 -0,04 -0,19 0,58 "-0,02 0,05 -0,04 -0,38 -0, II 0,55 -0,02

fac2 0,05 0, I0 0,03 0,12 -0, i0 -0, I0 0,61 0,23 0,25

R2

R

0,68 0,35 0,46 0,27 0,42 0,55 0,48 0,68 0,42

0,82 0,60 0,68 0,52 0,64 0,74 0,69 0,82 0,65

distance to neighbourhood 001 in coordinate units dist empl = employed persons (May 1981) as a p e r c e n t a g e of number of residents (Jan 1981) age2 = p e r c e n t a g e of residents b e t w e e n 15-25 years of age age3 = p e r c e n t a g e of residents b e t w e e n 25-30 years of age age7 = p e r c e n t a g e of residents older than 65 years of age medi = p e r c e n t a g e of M e d i t e r r a n e a n persons welf = p e r c e n t a g e of people on w e l f a r e (Feb 1983) priv = p e r c e n t a g e of p r iv a t e rental dwellings fac2 = p e r c e n t a g e of dwellings that lack at least 2 e l e m e n t a r y facilities =

*See Table 2 for index of household c a t e g o r i es. M e d i t e r r a n e a n s is spatially r e l a t e d to the fact that many M e d i t e r r a n e a n s already live t h e r e and to the e x i s t e n c e of r e l a t i v e l y many low quality dwellings (i.e. areas that are known to be of bad physical quality). F a m i l i e s with children show many n e g a t i v e relationships. These all indicate that they are o r i e n t e d towards areas that are above a v e r a g e in a s o c i a l - e c o n o m i c as well as a physical sense. When considering the o th e r household c a t e g o r i e s we note that the pattern of o v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the influx of middle-aged solitary movers is, in a r e l a t i v e l y weaker form, comparable to that of the Mediterraneans, and that the divorced and joint movers don't seem to differ much from this either as far as the physical s t r u c t u r e of the neighbourhood is concerned. The two l a t t e r c a t e g o r i e s are, however, more a t t r a c t e d to areas which are more functionally diverse and to areas with a d i f f e r e n t social composition. Finally we should note that single-parent families are not limited to the physically worst neighbourhoods. The previous description and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n is quite abstract. That is why we shall now - as concisely as possibly - present an analysis in which the neighbourhoods have been previously gathered into sev er al clusters. We have d e t e r m i n e d the o v e r / u n d e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n in the influx for each c l u s t e r per household c a t e g o r y , per dwelling type. Because the number of clusters is

332

FIGURE 2.

Location quotients of nine household categories for six clusters of neighbourhoods.

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

L

50 0

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

9

1

50 0

1

2

Center

3

4

5

' 6

7

8

9

8

9

8

9

Center-Edge

250 200 ~50 100 50 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

I

2

3

4

5

6

I

7

Edge Old-New City

Old City

250

250

200

200

150 - -

150

100

~

50

100 50

o 1

2

I

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

o

New City

1 young solitary movers 2 middle-aged solitary movers 3 older solitary movers

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

New Construction

4 couples without children 5 families with children 6 single-parent families

7 joint movers 8 Mediterranean households 9 households of separated / divorced persons

333

FIGURE 3.

Some physical, demographic and s o c i a l e c o n o m i c characteristics of six clusters of neighbourhoods.

2~ r-~

7o

vo

so,

~oo

r~

so

~o.

,

~

~3

~

~s~o.

~

1 2 ~ s e ~

i

iii

Center

Center-Edge

,so,

ae .

.

.

.

o~s2s~e~aso6~

.

t

Old City

Edge

Old-New

City

so . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~o .

.

.

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l i m i t e d , a g r a p h i c a l p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t s a n d o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l p r o f i l e s of t h e c l u s t e r s is p o s s i b l e . T h e a c t u a l division i n t o c l u s t e r s c a n in f a c t b e b a s e d on a n y t h i n g as long as it is n o t p r i m a r i l y d e t e r m i n e d by h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . For, in t h a t c a s e , we would b e r e a s o n i n g in c i r c l e s w h e n k e e p i n g h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n s t a n t (in t h e l o c a t i o n q u o t i e n t a n a l y s e s ) . T h e c l u s t e r s m u s t r e p r e s e n t d i f f e r e n t e n v i r o n m e n t s . We c a n m a k e a d i v i s i o n i n t o c l u s t e r s a c c o r d i n g to l o c a t i o n (e.g. c i r c u l a r z o n e s a r o u n d t h e c e n t r e ) or a c c o r d i n g to f u n c t i o n a l h o m o g e n e i t y / h e t e r o g e n e i t y or a d i v i s i o n t h a t e x p r e s s e s t h e t y p e of p o p u l a t i o n d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e a b o v e m e n t i o n e d m e t h o d s of c l u s t e r i n g all r e l a t e s t r o n g l y t o e a c h o t h e r and all s a y s o m e t h i n g a b o u t t h e r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . We h a v e o p t e d for a c l u s t e r a n a l y s i s (4) t h a t w a s m a d e in o r d e r to o b t a i n a - r e l a t i v e l y r o u g h - c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of n e i g h b o u r h o o d s a c c o r d i n g to t h e flows of m o v e r s ( M u s t e r d , 1985:179-185). T h e six m o s t i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t i n g c l u s t e r s a r e r e l a t i v e l y h o m o g e n e o u s in t h e t y p e o f p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e and in t h e d y n a m i c s of t h e p r o c e s s e s of c h a n g e . W h e t h e r t h e p o p u l a t i o n c h a n g e and i t s d y n a m i c s c a n p r i m a r i l y be a s c r i b e d to t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k or (also) to the, for e a c h c l u s t e r c l e a r l y d i f f e r e n t , r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s will h a v e to be d e t e r m i n e d by t h e r e s u l t s w h i c h will now be p r e s e n t e d . As t h e s p a t i a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n of t h e c l u s t e r s is v e r y s h a r p we c a n s p e a k of a C e n t e r c l u s t e r , a C e n t e r - E d g e , an O l d - C i t y c l u s t e r , an E d g e - O l d - N e w C i t y c l u s t e r , a N e w C i t y c l u s t e r and a c l u s t e r to b e n a m e d N e w C o n s t r u c t i o n A r e a . F i g u r e s 2 and 3 show t h e r e s u l t s . T h e c o n c l u s i o n is in f a c t t h e s a m e as on t h e b a s i s of t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s . The Center cluster attracts more young solitary movers than could be e x p e c t e d on t h e basis of its h o u s i n g s t o c k . T h e c l u s t e r is m u l t i - f u n c t i o n a l . T h e r a t i o b e t w e e n d w e l l i n g s a n d b u s i n e s s e s is a l m o s t I : I. T h e r e s i d i n g p o p u l a t i o n is young. A c c o r d i n g to t h e l i t e r a t u r e t h e social and p h y s i c a l s t r u c t u r e fit in w i t h t h e o v e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . T h e i n f l u x of young a n d m i d d l e - a g e d s o l i t a r y m o v e r s a n d j o i n t a n d M e d i t e r r a n e a n m o v e r s to t h e C e n t e r - E d g e is l a r g e r t h a n e x p e c t e d . F o r t h e y o u n g m o v e r s t h e m i x e d f u n c t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r p o i n t s to t h e s a m e e x p l a n a t i o n as g i v e n a b o v e . T h e l o w e r p h y s i c a l q u a l i t y of t h e b u i l d i n g s m a k e s t h e a r e a m o r e a c c e s s i b l e for t h e o t h e r t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , we s h o u l d also n o t e t h a t t h i s c l u s t e r , as well as t h e O l d - C i t y c l u s t e r a l r e a d y h a v e m a n y M e d i t e r r a n e a n s a n d t h a t this c o i n c i d e s w i t h a l a r g e i n f l u x of M e d i t e r r a n e a n s . B e s i d e s a r e l a t i v e g r o w t h of t h e h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r i e s w i t h f e w c h a n c e s t h e O l d - C i t y also h a s a h i g h e r i n c r e a s e o f m i d d l e - a g e d a n d o l d e r s o l i t a r y m o v e r s t h a n w a s e x p e c t e d . T h e f a c t t h a t we are, again, d e a l i n g w i t h a n old, c h e a p , r e l a t i v e l y b a d q u a l i t y , h o m o g e n e o u s , r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a s e e m s to fit t h e picture. These neighbourhoods, originally family neighbourhoods, have gone t h r o u g h a c h a n g e in f u n c t i o n . T h e E d g e - O l d - N e w - C i t y c l u s t e r is r a t h e r c o l o u r l e s s , as t h e s t r u c t u r e as well as t h e p r o c e s s e s a r e all a v e r a g e . T h e d e v e l o p m e n t s in t h e s e a r e a s t e n d t o w a r d s t h a t of t h e Old City. F a m i l i e s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w i t h c h i l d r e n , are, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s , m a i n l y a t t r a c t e d to a r e a s t h a t a r e s o c i a l l y a n d p h y s i c a l l y a b o v e

335

average. This is the case in the N e w - C i t y and the areas of New Co n st r u ction. They are the only areas in which the influx is higher than could be e x p e c t e d on the basis of the housing stock. In both cases we are c o n c e r n e d with homogeneous residential areas with a r e l a t i v e l y high status and high physical quality. The residential e n v i r o n m e n t of each cl u st er does c o n t r i b u t e to some e x t e n t to the i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the p a t t e r n s of o v e r / u n d e r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . We must em p h as i z e that these m o v e m e n t s cannot be solely (or primarily) ascribed to the processes of choice. Housing distribution involving residential e n v i r o n m e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s can play an underlying role as well. The term ~orientation' should t h e r e f o r e be i n t e r p r e t e d as an expression of ' a t t r a c t i o n ' and an expression of the 'possibilities o f f e r e d ~.

Conclusions and policy implications In this paper we have a t t e m p t e d to convince the reader that the developments of the population in a c e r t a i n area can not be t o t al l y explained by c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the local housing stock. We have established, at least in a t e n t a t i v e sense, that the residential e n v i r o n m e n t in social, physical and locational t erm s influences the described mobility processes and t h e r e b y the population developments. This is more so for some household c a t e g o r i e s than for others. This implies that problems could arise in the city when the building policy, urban renewal policy or the housing distribution policy c o n c e r n i n g housing for c e r t a i n household c a t e g o r i e s is based on the 'wrong' locations (i.e. 'wrong' residential environments). If this concerns housing t h a t is not at the bottom of the housing hierarchy, the problems will m e r e l y consist of an a c c e l e r a t e d downgrading and a situation in which the housing will soon be inhabited by a d i f f e r e n t household c a t e g o r y than the one it was m e a n t for. If it concerns unwanted housing in an unwanted residential e n v i r o n m e n t one must e x p e c t high v a c a n c y rates. Indirectly this has c e r t a i n c o n s e q u e n c e s for spatial policy. Taking the residential e n v i r o n m e n t wishes/needs into account, supports, for example, a c o m p a c t - c i t y policy. Ignoring them can, again, lead to suburbanization of family households. The above conclusions are not only based on the data for the whole municipality of Tilburg. S e v e r a l neighbourhood case-studies in Tilburg support the general conclusions. Sondern (1982) d e m o n s t r a t e d the n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s (vandalism, conflicts) of building for c e r t a i n household c a t e g o r i e s in the wrong location (in the middle of areas with a much lower status). Bond (1983) e m p i r i c a l l y established the p r e f e r e n c e of young people for a c e n t r a l environment. Groen & H o o g e r v o r s t (1986) described the d e v e l o p m e n t e f f e c t s in two identical high-rise e s t a t e s in d i f f e r e n t locations (they d e v e l o p e d very differently, partly as a result of the location). Our more general conclusions are supported by these c a s e - s t u d i e s . This, however, should not let us r e f r a i n from c o m m e n t i n g on the conclusions we have drawn. In the first place the results of the analyses are, of course, highly dependent on the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n that is used. Especially the dwelling c l a s s i f i c a tion is of crucial importance. It is not unthinkable that c e r t a i n results may have been distorted by a crude classification. Especially when considering

336

t h e a g e of h o u s i n g we m u s t r e a l i z e t h a t t h e m e r e d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n p r e a n d p o s t - w a r h o u s i n g m a y in s o m e c a s e s h a v e b e e n t o o r o u g h . As well as t h i s t h e c o n c l u s i o n s s u f f e r f r o m t h e l a c k of s o c i a l - e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e h o u s e h o l d s . We h a d to s u f f i c e w i t h f a c t u a l k n o w l e d g e a b o u t t h e r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n c e r t a i n t y p e s of h o u s e h o l d s a n d t h e i r s o c i a l - e c o n o m i c p o s i t i o n . T h e r e is h o w e v e r , no r e a s o n to a s s u m e t h a t t h i s r e l a t i o n is i n v a l i d i n thi~ case.

S e c o n d l y , w e h a v e n o t e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r e d t h e e f f e c t s of t h e m a n a g e m e n t of t h e dwelling. By d i s t i n g u i s h i n g c e r t a i n t e n u r e t y p e s we w e r e a b l e to d i s c o v e r t h e a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s p e r type, b u t w e did n o t g a i n i n s i g h t i n t o t h e d e c i s i o n s and m a n a g e m e n t by t h e s e a c t o r s on t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t . We h a v e only r e c o r d e d t h e r e s u l t s of t h e s e a c t i o n s . We k n o w f r o m r e s e a r c h ( m e n t i o n e d in this a r t i c l e ) t h a t t h e i r i n f l u e n c e c a n b e s u b s t a n t i a l . T h i s s h o u l d b e t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n w h e n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e p a t t e r n s we h a v e found. In t h e t h i r d p l a c e this s t u d y is l i m i t e d in i t s t i m e s p a n a n d i t s l o c a t i o n . T h e m o b i l i t y t a k e s p l a c e d u r i n g a four y e a r p e r i o d in w h i c h t h e r e w a s a b o o m in t h e b u i l d i n g of o w n e r - o c c u p i e r h o u s i n g ( t h i s t o o k p l a c e in t h e w h o l e o f t h e N e t h e r l a n d s ) . T h e r e f o r e t h i s p e r i o d is s o m e w h a t s p e c i a l , w h i c h m e a n s t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n d e v e l o p m e n t is also s p e c i f i c , a l t h o u g h we would like to n o t e t h a t t h e b u i l d i n g of n e w h o u s i n g o n l y h a s a l i m i t e d d i r e c t e f f e c t on t h e d e v e l o p m e n t s . T h e l o c a t i o n of o u r s t u d y was l i m i t e d to T i l b u r g . T h e h o u s i n g , p o p u l a t i o n a n d m o b i l i t y a r e h o w e v e r c o m p a r a b l e to c i t i e s of m e d i u m s i z e in t h e r e s t of t h e N e t h e r l a n d s . T h e u r b a n s t r u c t u r e is s o m e w h a t d i f f e r e n t to o t h e r c i t i e s ( m o r e v a c a n t lots, less c o h e s i o n of t h e v a r i o u s c i t y a r e a s ) . B u t in a f u n c t i o n a l s e n s e t h e c i t y is e n t i r e l y c o m p a r a b l e to t h e o t h e r c i t i e s . K e e p i n g t h e b e f o r e m e n t i o n e d c o m m e n t s in m i n d we f e e l c o n f i d e n t to s t a t e t h a t h o u s i n g a n d u r b a n p l a n n i n g p o l i c i e s should p a y m o r e a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y in t h e f u t u r e , to t h e i m p o r t a n c e of t h e d i f f e r e n t r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t s for t h e v a r i o u s h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r i e s . B e s i d e s this, w e h a v e a g a i n shown, i m p l i c i t l y a n d e x p l i c i t l y , t h a t a t t e m p t s to d i v e r s i f y a r e a s (Le. p u r s u e a b a l a n c e d p o p u l a t i o n build up) a r e d o o m e d to fail. If a p o l i c y of b a l a n c e d p o p u l a t i o n build up is p u r s u e d a n d if h o u s i n g is m a d e a v a i l a b l e in t h e w r o n g l o c a t i o n , a f a s t d o w n g r a d i n g will i n e v i t a b l y o c c u r . A m o n g s t o t h e r t h i n g s t h i s will r e s u l t in a s h o r t c h a i n of m o v i n g . T h e n u m b e r of h o u s e h o l d s p r o f i t i n g f r o m t h e s e p o l i c i e s will c e r t a i n l y n o t b e o p t i m a l . tn c o n c l u s i o n , w e c o n s i d e r it w i s e to a c c e p t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y a n d t y p e of r e s i d e n t i a l e n v i r o n m e n t a n d to i n c o r p o r a t e t h e e x i s t e n c e of s u c h r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t o t h e t h i n k i n g a b o u t u r b a n d e v e l o p ments.

Notes 1. T h e m o v e r s i n c l u d e all h o u s e h o l d or p e r s o n s w h o i n d e p e n d e n t l y r u n a n h o u s e h o l d (and do not live in w i t h p a r e n t s ) , a n d c h a n g e t h e i r a d d r e s s . 2. When t h e i n f l u x of a c e r t a i n h o u s e h o l d c a t e g o r y i n t o a n e i g h b o u r h o o d w a s h i g h e r t h a n e x p e c t e d f o r all t h e d w e l l i n g t y p e s t o g e t h e r , t h i s w a s also g e n e r a l l y t r u e for e a c h d w e l l i n g t y p e s e p e r a t e l y . P e r c e n t a g e o f

337

3.

4.

neighbourhoods in which the influx of a household c a t e g o r y into none or one of the nine dwelling types was lower than expected, while the influx in all dwelling types t o g e t h e r was higher than expected. young solitary movers 65 middle-aged solitary movers 83 old solitary movers 86 married couples without children 83 families with children 77 single-parent families 96 joint movers 99 Mediterraneans 98 divorced movers 87" The neighbourhoods in which we did find some inconsistency were spread o v e r the c i t y at random. We have aimed at maximal values of R 2 while avoiding, as much as possible, m u l t i c o l l i n e a r i t y (high c o r r e l a t i o n b et w een independent variables); this is the only situation in which 13-values, the standardized partial regression c o e f f i c i e n t s , give a good impression of the co n t r i b u t ed explanation by the variables. The 13-values indicate how much standard change takes place in the dependent variable when an independent variable increases by one standard unit while the o th e r variables are kept constant. The [3-values are dimensionless and t h e r e f o r e mutually comparable: The variable with the highest 13-value c o n t r i b u t e s most to the explanation. As the c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n the independent variables had not e n t i r e l y disappeared in the regression analyses we c a r r i e d out, we must make some r e s e r v a t i o n s when naming the ' m o s t i m p o r t a n t ' explaining variable. We c a r r i e d out an hierarchical c l u s t e r analysis using the Euclidian dist a n c e as dissimilarity m e a s u r e and WardWs method as cluster criterion. The result was used as the input for a partition method in order to optim i z e the division.

References Bassett, K. & J. Short (1980) Housing and residential s t r u c t u r e , a l t e r n a t i v e approaches, London. Blauw, W. (1985) " S e g r e g a t i e en m i g r a t i e in het stadgewest", Burgers, J.P. & P.A. Stoppelenburg (red.), H e t s t e d e l ij k woonerf, Tilburg: IVA. Bond, P.D.M. (1983) Wonen in h e t stadscentrum, D o c t o r a a l s c r i p t i e , A m s t e r d a m : Vrije U n i v er siteit. Bourne, L.S. (1976) "Housing supply and housing m a r k e t behaviour", Herbert, D.T. & R.J. Johnston (eds.), Social A r e a s in Cities, Vol.1, Spatial Processes and Form, London: Wiley.

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