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© AkademischeVerlagsgesellschaft• Wiesbaden
THE INDIAN MONSOON AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT SAHA, K. R., New Delhi *, MOOLEY, D. A., Pune and SAHA,S., New Delhi
Abstract: Indian economy is vitally linked with the monsoon because of its water resources. A large part of the country gets more than 75 % of the annual rainfall during the four months, June to September.. The production of foodgrains depends fairly closely on the amount and distribution of monsoon rainfall over the country. Further the generation of hydro-electric power from monsoon rain water has been traced over the last 20 years. While hydro-electric power constitutes about 40 % of power from all sources, with proper surveys and planning additional hydro-electric power projects this percentage could, perhaps, be further substantially increased.The distinct advantage of hydro-electric power over all other types of power is that its source, i.e. monsoon water, is perennial, although it shows some fluctuations from year to year. The power of the monsoon winds at four and two stations on the West coast and in the interior resp. has been assessedon the basis of five years hourly wind data. The wind at New Kandla on the West coast has a good potentiality for power. The wind power could be used for electricity, grinding corn and drawing water. On the debit side, Indian economy suffers heavy lossesdue to floods and droughts almost every year. The population of India is increasing at a much faster rate than the total foodgrains production and soon the country may be facing a serious economic crisis. A large part of the monsoon water which is currently unutilized should be held at suitable locations for irrigation and possible power generation.
I. Introduction India is a vast country extending in latitude from 8 ° 4' to 37 ° 6 ' N and in longitude from 68 ° 7 ' to 97 ° 2 5 ' E . It has an area of 3,276,141 sqkm and a population of nearly 600 millions. It has approximately 550,000 villages where more than 80 % o f the population live and where the main occupation of the people is agriculture. Industries and modern amenities of life are to be found mostly in the big cities and towns. Since indepencence in 1947, India has made rapid strides to improve her economy by devoting increased attention to agriculture as well as industrialization o f the country. She adopted modern technology by way of irrigation, fertilizers, *
Dr. K. R. SAHA, 27, B-Road, Maharani Bagh, New Delhi -- 11 00 14, India.
new and improved varieties o f seeds, etc., to boost up agricultural production and built many power plants to step up the industrial output. The technological trend is clearly perceptible in almost all kinds of production in the country. While the role of technological inputs in the development o f India's economy is much appreciated by all, it is, perhaps, not even known in many quarters that the full value o f the inputs is realized o n l y in the presence o f a good monsoon, especially where water resources are involved. The so-called 'green revolution' in agriculture which was hailed as the culmination of the new technological trend did not turn out to be so green during the years 1965, 1966, 1968, 1972 and 1974 when the rainfall in Indiawas highly deficient. Clearly, a green revolution can have little meaning w i t h o u t the co-operation o f a good monsoon. Another factor of major concern in Indian economy is the explosive rate o f growth o f its population during the last
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few decades. Statistics show that the harmful effects of over-population have largely offset the benefits of the technological trends and that even in years of good monsoon, there is not enough food to go round to feed the teeming millions. Two aspects of the Indian monsoon which exercise direct impact on the Indian economy are its water potential and wind energy. Although the word 'monsoon' is used to denote a system of prevailing winds which undergo seasonal reversal of direction, to the vast multitudes of people living in monsoon lands the word is synonymous with rainfall and the goodness of the monsoon is judged by the amount of rainfall in term of the long-term average rainfall at a place. In terms of the quantum of rainfall, it is the Southwest monsoon which is recognized as the main monsoon of India. The period March to May is treated as the pre-monsoon season and that of October to December as the post-monsoon season in India. Section 2 gives some aspects of the climatology of monsoon rainfall. Food production is discussed in section 3. Section 4 is devoted to power generation in India. The potentiality of tapping the energy of the monsoon winds is discussed in section 5. The adverse effects on economy by floods and droughts are discussed in section 6. Some suggestions on future economic developments, taking into consideration the environmental factors, are presented in section 7.
2. Some A s p e c t s o f C l i m a t o l o g y
of Monsoon
plateau and some parts of Central India the monsoon rainfall is generally moderate or scanty. Over most parts of Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Gujarat and Punjab, rainfall is generally small. The climates of these states gradually merge into the dry and hot climate of theThar desert of northwest India during the northern summer. In Fig 3 is presented the percentage of the summer monsoon rainfall ~o the total annual rainfall. Over most parts of the country the summer monsoon brings more than 75 % of the annual rainfall. The exceptions are a few states in extreme southern India, the state of Jammu and Kashmir in the north and the states of Assam and Sikkim where the winter monsoon or the premonsoon or the post-monsoon disturbances become the main rain-producing agencies. The above distribution of normal monsoon rainfall is subject to varying interannual variability. Normally, as a rule, the areas of high rainfall show low variability and the viceversa. However, the annual rainfall over India as a whole fluctuates from year to year. A recent study by Saha and Mooley (1978) has shown that there is no clear-cut trend or periodicity in these fluctuations. Fig 1
Meteorological Sub-divisions o f India.
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3. Monsoon and Food Production
Fig 2 Distribution o f Annual Normal Rainfall over the Sub-divisions of India.
India has been giving increased attention to the production of foodgrains as she has a vast, ever-increasing population to feed. To this end, she has adopted most of the modern technology that became available. Through a series of river valley projects, large tracts of arable land has been brought under irrigation. A large number of fertilizer factories have been set up in the country. New and improved varieties of seeds, such as hybrid and high-yielding varieties, have been introduced with good results. Needless to state, the net effect of these technological inputs has been a clear-cut and definite trend towards higher food production in the country. This trend is reflected not only in the total foodgrains production but also in the production of individual foodgrains, such as rice or wheat or other cereals or pulses.
In Fig 4, we present the yearwise production of total foodgrains per thousand hectares in India since 1951 as given i0 the 'Agricultural Situation in India', a monthly journal published by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Government of India. The corresponding annual rainfall is shown in the same diagram. While a mean curve drawn through figures of annual total foodgrains production would suggest an average annual addition of about 15 tons per 1000 hectares due to technological improvement of agriculture during the last two and a half decades, a very striking feature of Fig 4 is the wide variability of total foodgrains production in keeping with the performance of the monsoon. The years 1965, 1966, 1972 and 1974 were years of deficient rainfall and the total foodgrains production went down in these years.
On the other hand, the years 1953, 1962, 1970 and 1975 were years of good rainfall and the country had good harvests during these years. It is well-known that India passed through very difficult times in 1965 and 1966 and again in 1972 when confronted with severe drought conditions and that she had to import a large quantity of foodgrains to save the country from starvation. Thus one may see that although the technological inputs have contributed immensely towards increased food production, the full impact of these inputs can only be realized in the presence of a good monsoon. One is led to draw the same conclusion from examination of the rate of production of other crops as well. Fig 5 shows the yearly production of rice (after removing the technological trend of 15.5 tons per 1000 hectares per year from the annual production, starting from the year 1950) in tons per 1000 hectares from 1951 to 1976 and the corresponding annual rainfall in India. The correlation between rice-yield and monsoon rainfall is very high, indeed!
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Fig 4 Yearwise Rainfall and Total Foodgrains (Cereals and Pulses) Production in India since 1951.
4. Harnessing Power
Monsoon
Water for Hydro-Electric
The idea to harness India's snow-fed and rain-fed rivers in
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irrigation and power generation was mooted:as early as 1 9 3 5 w h e n a National Planning Committee made its first recommendations. B u t a systematic implementation of the recommendations had to await the independence of the
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Fig 5 Yearwise Rainfall and Rice Production in India since 1951. A Constant Technological Trend of 1 5.5 Tons per Thousand Hectares per Year Computed from Running Five-year Average Value of Actual Yield each Year has been Subtracted from the Actual Production to Study the Variation due to Rainfall.
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If the per capita power consumption is any index to the state of economy of a country, the data given above is highly revealing and, perhaps, explains the general backwardness of the country compared to some of the developed countries whose per capita power consumption is almost two orders of magnitude higher. Of the 550,000 villages in India, the number electrified as on 30.9. 1969 was 73,554, i.e., about 15 %, benefiting 100 million people. The position has only slightly changed since then, since the bulk of the villages are yet to be electrified. At present, most of the electric power consumption is confined to big cities and towns where there are heavy and light industries set up to benefit a rather smaller section of the people while the majority of the villages remain without power.
Tab 1 The Break-up of the Installed Capacity at the End of the Fourth Plan and the Fifth Plan by Type of Power in Million Kilowatts. Ason 31.3. 1974 I
Hydro
Thermal
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As On 31.3. 1979 Hydro
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Source: Times of India Directory and Yearbook, 1977. Tab 2
5. Power from Monsoon Winds The economic importance of the Indian monsoon lies essentially in the bounty of rainfall and the great strength of its wind systems. As pointed out earlier, rainfall constitutes the main water resource of the country and is being utilized in ever-increasing measure for production of foodgrains and crops and also for power generation. Little or practically nothing has been done in India so far for development of windpower to contribute to her economy. Observations show that the monsoon wind is fairly strong in some parts of the country especially the West coast of India which is exposed to its full blast. The India Meteorological Department has installed self-recording windinstruments. Thus it is possible to compute the wind power that may be available at a particular location at any time of the year. However, the wind at a place is seldom steady, the degree of fluctuations being dependent, inter alia, upon the vertical stability of the atmosphere and friction of the underlying ground. It is difficult to compute the power of such fluctuating winds in a straightforward manner, unless the method of computation adopts some kind of averaging of the winds over a set interval of time. To explore the wind power available during the SW monsoon, the hourly wind data of six stations, viz., New Kandla, Bombay (Colaba), Marmagao, Mangalore (Penambur) on the west coast of India and Begumpet (Hyderabad) and Bhopal in the interior of the country, as tabulated from the Dines' P.T. anemograph records for the period from 1969 to 1973 were examined. As a first step, th.e velocity - duration curves were prepared from a tabulation of the hourly winds. Fig 7 shows wind regime.
The Per Capita Consumption of Power in India and in some of the Advanced Countries in 1968 (in KWH).
The per capita consumption of electricity in India during 1971-72 was 94 KWH. Fig 7 Wind Velocity-duration Curves for the Summer Season (June to September) for six Selected Stations in India. 60 '
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176
GeoJoumal 3.2
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@,Akademische Verlagsgesellschaft - Wiesbaden
The wind power is calculated by using the relation: P = 1/2 e A V 3
where P is the wind power, ~ is the density of air, A is the area through which the wind passes normally, and V is the wind velocity. Fig 8 Wind Power-duration Curves for the Summer Season (June to September) for six Selected Stations in India.
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6. Adverse Impact -- Floods and
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where V is in km/h "and P in Kilowatts and the bar denotes the average value. Utilizing the above-mentioned relation for P, powerduration curves were obtained for the six stations for which the velocity-duration curves were presented in Fig 7. These are shown in Fig 8. Betz applied the simple momentum theory and showed the maximum fraction of the power of the wind which could be extracted from an ideal aeromotor is about 59 % (Golding and Harris 1976). In actual practice, a wind-mill may not be able to extract more than 40 % of the total power. This percentage depends amongst other things on the type and detailed design of the wind-mill and on the operating conditions. 'Rated wind Speed' is one of the most important points in the design of a wind-driven generator. Thus it is the lowest wind speed at which full output is produced. At higher speeds, the output is limited to the full-rated value by the controlling mechanism. 'Rated wind speed' is usually less than 48 km/h. Apart from using wind power for generation of electricity, it can be used for grinding corn and drawing water from wells.
I00
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According to Mooley (1951), mean surface air density over India during July and August is 1,100 gm/m 3± 0.3%, Using the value of 1,100 gm/m 3 of air density and taking A = 100 sqm, we obtain, for the average wind power, the relation P = 0.00117 V 3
0
400
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Duration in hours
Droughts
From the foregoing sections, it is abundantly clear that the economic prosperity of India is very much tied up with the monsoon. However, the monsoon is not always an unmixed blessing. Because of its erratic nature and large fluctuations from the normal rainfall in some regions, some parts of the
Tab 3 Statement of Flood Damage in India since 1965.
Source: The Times of India Year Book and Directory, 1977.
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country have either floods or droughts almost every year. Both cause untold misery to the people living in affected areas and heavy loss to the country's exchequer. During floods, crops are damaged, human beings and cattle are washed away and public and private utility services are thrown out of gear (Tab 3). In India, the large areas in the Indo-Gangetic plain are susceptible to frequent floods, particularly in North Bihar, eastern Uttar pradesh, the Punjab, Haryana, portion of Rajasthan and also the coastal areas of Orissa, Andhra pradesh and Tami! Nadu. The deltaic areas of the Mahanadi, Godavari, Krishna and Cauvery are particularly susceptible to severe floods. These areas may total about 20 million hectares. In recent years, India has taken a number of steps towards fighting the flood menace. The measures include the raising and strengthening of existing embankments, the river training works and protection of towns. A reservoir is not filled to full capacity till the middle of August so that it can absorb whatever floods that may come in. Reservoirs constructed for irrigation, power, etc., have been planned to provide for flood control also. Indiscriminate cutting of trees and unauthorized grazing in the foothill areas are among the factors which contribute towards making large areas flood-prone and hence should be discouraged. While floods are caused by excessive accumulation of water due to heavy rainfall over a relatively short period of time, prolonged period of dryness and high temperature lead to drought and scarcity conditions. Considering the years when monsoon rainfall for India as a whole was below the tenth percentile as years of bad monsoon, it is found that there are 16 bad monsoon years during the period from 1841 to 1977. There is only one case on record of two successive years of bad monsoon, viz., 1965, 1966; in four cases, the monsoon rainfall in the preceding year was 88 to 95 % of the normal and in the remaining 11 cases,the monsoon rainfall in the preceding year was near normal or above normal. In India, as many as 128 districts accounting for about 68 million hectares have low to medium rainfall under 1,125 mm annually, and these have very limited irrigation facilities. By and large, drought regions have low water resources, hence they may have to depend on rain-fed agriculture with its attendant risk of instability in the years of bad monsoon. The chronically-affected drought regions account for nearly 19 % of the total area of the country and 12 % of its population. With a few exceptions, every state in India has one or more drought-prone districts. These areas are the major factor contributing to regional imbalances in the country. Every third year or so, about three million inhabitants of arid zones take to migration with their livestock to neighbouring areas where they cause extreme pressures on land and resources. These areas also
Tab 4 The Percentage Geographical Area and Population of the Droughtprone Districts in a few Chronically-affected States.
remain a constant source of strain on the country's financial resources. During the period 1969-73, government expenditure on drought relief amounted to about 7,900 million rupees. Since 1970-71, India has taken several measures for the development of drought-prone areas under its DroughtProne Areas Programme (DPAP). These include: (a) development of irrigation; (b) formulation of schemes specially designed to benefit the drought-prone/dry areas; (c) agricultural research specifically oriented towards the problems of low rainfall areas; (d) scarcity relief which also helped in creating additional production potential and provision of services like drinking water supply, etc., and (e) special programmes like the Emergency Agricultural Production Programme. The main thrust of the DPAP is in the direction of the restoration of a proper ecological balance in the selected areas. Some of the important elements of the programme are: (i) development and management of irrigation sources; (ii) soil and moisture conservation and afforestation; (iii) restructuring of cropping pattern and pasture development; (iv) livestock development; (v) popularization of dry-land farming technology; (vi) development of small and marginal farmers and agricultural labour. The total Fifth plan (1974-79) allocation for the programme is Rs. 1,870 millions. 7. Bridging the Ever-Widening Gap If one has to point out a single major factor that threatens India's economy to-day, it is undoubtedly the explosive rate of growth of her population (Tab 5). Tab 5
India's Population Growth.
Year
Population (in rn I ion}
1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971
Percent decadal variation
238.4 252 0
5.75
251 3
(-) 0.31
278.9 318 6 361.0 439.2 547.9
] 1.00 14.22 13.31 21.51 24.80
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In 1975, India's population stood at about 604 millions. If the present trend continues, it may touch about 1,000 millions by 2001 AD. As against this trend of population increase, the present rate of increase of foodgrains production has been slow inspite of all the technological inputs (Fig 9). A terrible disaster may be in the offing if humanity fails to devise ways and means to bridge the gap before it widens still further. Obviously, the solution that suggests itself lies in reducing the rate of growth of population on the one hand and stepping up the rate of production of foodgrains, power etc., on the other. There can be two approaches to the problem of reducing the rate of growth of population; one by coercion or force and the other by persuation, offering incentives, spreading adult education, etc. The latter method may be more appropriate for India which believes in democratic methods. In the matter of stepping up the rate of production of foodgrains, ways and means need to be found for storing more monsoon water preferably at high altitudes for irrigation purposes. It is a fact that against 194.24 million hectares cultivable area in the country, irrigation is available for only 36.42 million Fig 9
hectares. This is only 23 % of the cultivated land: the rest (77 %) is still at the mercy of the monsoons. It is estimated that only a small fraction of the rainfall that comes down from the Southwest monsoon is utilized for irrigation purposes; the remainder finds its way to the seas. The suggestion that is offered here is that we shou]'cl explore the possibility of holding this enormous quantity of monsoon water that flows down to the sea every year unutilized. This holding should, as far as possible, be at high elevations such as the mountains of the Western Ghats, the Himalayan ranges, the Vindhya and Aravalli mountains and the hills of the Deccan plateau. Recorded history reveals instances of such holding and utilization of monsoon water in the upper windward slopes of the hills of Sri Lanka and its ingenious diversion to the leeside to benefit the present-day dry region of Anuradhapura which was once fertile raising many crops (Toynbee 1972). If the storage level happens to be high, perhaps, technology can help in creating new sources of hydro-electric power at such locations. Along with monsoon water, the power of the monsoon winds should also be tapped for the benefit of the villages of India where conventional electric power may not reach in the foreseeable future.
Percentage Decadal Variation in Population and Total Foodgrains Production in India since 1951.
Acknowledgment 50-
The authors' grateful thanks are due to the Director General of Observatories, the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research and the Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi, for providing data and facilities for this study. Bulk of the statistical information incorporated in the paper were obtained from the excellent Directories and Yearbooks published by the Times of India (Editor: Sham Lal). Their thanks are also due to the staff of the climatology division of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, who compiled a good amount of data for rainfall and wind power computations. The research reported in this paper forms part of the work to be submitted by one of the aUthors (S.S.) to the Jawaharlal Nehru University for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
POPULATION
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TOTAL
FOODGRAINS
R e f e r e n ces GOLDING, E.W. and HARRIS, R.I.: The generation of electricity by wind power. London, E. & F. N. Spon Ltd. 1976. 15'
MOOLEY, D.A.: Normal density distribution in the atmosphere. Ind. |. Met. & Geophys. (2) April, 1951,127-137 (1951). SAHA, K.R. and MOOLEY, D.A.: Fluctuations of monsoon rainfall and crop production. In: Climatic change and food production. TAKASHI, K. and YOSHINO, M.M. (eds.), Univ. of Tokyo Press, Tokyo, pp.1 3-80, 1978.
IO
I
1951 -
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DECADE
Times of India: The Times of India Directory and Yearbook. (Editor: SHAM LAL} 1977. TOYNBEE, A.: The study of history. London, Oxford University Press 1972.