Environ Sci Pollut Res (2012) 19:1364–1374 DOI 10.1007/s11356-011-0641-y
URBANIZATION IN CHINA AND ITS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts A case study in Shanghai Zhan Tian & Guiying Cao & Jun Shi & Ian McCallum & Linli Cui & Dongli Fan & Xinhu Li
Received: 16 June 2011 / Accepted: 3 October 2011 # Springer-Verlag 2011
Abstract Purpose The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the
Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues Z. Tian : J. Shi (*) Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, 166 Puxi Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200030, China e-mail:
[email protected] G. Cao : I. McCallum International Institute for Apply System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria L. Cui Shanghai Center for Satellite Remote Sensing and Application, Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, 555 Xinbang Road, Minhang District, Shanghai 201199, China D. Fan Shanghai Institute of Technology, 120 Caobao Road, Shanghai 200032, China X. Li Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021, China
major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. Method We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. Results and discussion The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas. Keywords Urbanization . Rural to urban migration . Urban land use change . Vegetation index (NDVI) . Shanghai
1 Introduction With the unprecedented growth of urbanization, today, half of the world’s population lives in urban regions. In particular, in developing regions urbanization is occurring at an accelerating pace. At the global level, the number and size of cities have fundamentally altered geographically. From roughly 1750 to 1950, Europe and North America (and Japan and Oceania) became urbanized in the process of the industrial revolution. Now, there are 16 mega-cities (with more than 10 million
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population) around the globe, 14 located in coastal areas, and 11 in Asia (UN 2002). Among the most notable features of China’s urban development over the past two decades are the unprecedented scale of urban growth in eastern coastal regions increasingly influenced by the global economy, the formation of large mega-urban regions around economic centers in these areas, such as Shanghai, a witness incredibly rapid urban and industrial development and completely integrated into the global economy. Growing of mega cities are not merely the major engines of economic growth and centers of innovation and contribute an important component of the gross domestic product (GDP) in China and other Asian countries. While at the same time global environmental change poses threats to these cities. In particular, given the rapid pace of urban growth in the South and Eastern Asian countries, many of these mega urban regions are located in the low-lying areas at the mouths of rivers that form part of the deltaic regions of major river systems; this places them as great risk from climate hazards. As the urban land expansion, and population growth as well as the food consumption change, water shortages, food security, energy provision have been strong associated with the urban growth. Thus, there is an integrative urban research agenda, while it is not merely economic and demographic dimensions (Potsiou 2010). Although China’s urbanization is recognized as the driving force behind much-needed economic restructuring over the past 20 years, it has intensified resources’ scarcity and environmental degradation. Like other emerging economies, China’s urbanisation will continue with a rapid speed, as the future urbanization trends in China have the potential to significantly alter the outlook for socioeconomic and environmental development in the coming decades, not only in the mega-urban regions but in China as a whole. China has experienced rapid urbanization since its reform process started in 1978. Its urban population increased from 17.6% in 1978 to 46.6% (about 620 million) in 2009 (Xiang et al. 2011). China’s urbanization is one of the consequences of industrial structure change and labor transition from the agriculture to industry and service sector. As the domestic labour force in agriculture halved from 83.5% to 40.8% from 1952 to 2007, the secondary and tertiary industries increased from 7.4% and 9.1% to 27% and 32%, along with the share of the population in urban areas from 12.46% to 44.94% (Cao et al. 2011). Although rapid economic growth and massive rural to urban migration have dramatically accelerated urbanization, China urban growth has been mostly been on the extensive model, characterized by high growth, high emission and high land expansion in company with imbalanced urban–rural and regional development (Wei 2010). In line with the rapid urbanization process in China, it is still an open question whether this rapid urban growth will be capable of contributing to the solution of today’s
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pressing problems of population growth, social coherence, and the ecological crises. The issue of urbanization impact on environment change and sustainability has been extensively discussed in the urban study literature (Liu and Wang 2011; He et al. 2011). What are the implications of urban land cover and the growth of extended metropolitan zones for local and regional climates? What insights regarding urban growth and climate change can be gained by knowing that a fundamental transformation of cities is under way? Urban cumulative impact on environment has become one of the focuses in both academic and public debates (Ouyang et al. 2007), and managing urban growth in the current rapid urbanization process has also become a key issue for land use policy in transformation China (Zhao 2011).International scholars discussed that urban ecosystems evolve over time and space as the outcome of dynamic interactions between socioeconomic and biophysical processes operating over multiple scales (Alberti 1999). The essential aspect of complex systems is nonlinearity, which leads to multiple possible outcomes of dynamics (Levin 1998). Newman (2006) analyzed three approaches to understanding the environmental impact of cities, namely population impact, ecological footprint and sustainability assessment. Ouyang et al. (2008) established an urban environment entropy model and utilized in a case study for the assessment of river water quality in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone. Some research noted the process of urbanization will create a net negative impact environment (Ehrlich et al. 1970). With rapid urbanization and industrialization in the past 30 years, serious problems in both climate and the ecological environment have been seen in Shanghai (Xu et al. 2005; He and Zhuang 2006). Li et al. (2010) analyzed the overall spatiotemporal characteristics of urban expansion in the Shanghai region, China with a combination of remotely sensed data, urbanization metrics and GIS based buffer gradient analysis. Zhao et al. (2003), using the multi-spectral satellite imageries taken in 1990, 1997 and 2000, analyzed the landscape ecology in Pudong of Shanghai. Their findings indicate that the rapid urbanization resulted in a more homogeneous landscape; agricultural landscape and suburban landscape were gradually replaced by urban landscape as the degree of urbanization increased. Yue et al. (2006) discussed the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) associated with urban land use type and land use pattern in the city of Shanghai using data collected by the Landsat7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and aerial photography. Han et al. (2009) presented an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model not only in socioeconomic driving forces analysis but also in urban spatial pattern evaluation with Shanghai city, China as a case. To contribute to the above perspectives of urban research, it is helpful to examine this
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issue with the specific example of Shanghai—the emerging global city in China. Furthermore, the integrated measurement for sustainable cities have drawn the attention of demographers and geographers, more interestingly combining demography and spatial data in development of new methods to assess the urban growth affecting on environment (UN FPA 2009), such questions have been raised by the UN experts group: To what extent does spatial information aid in the development of new methods? How to ring the environment and climate change impact analysis and their linkage to urban study? In particular to health, land use, and urban resilience in Asia, such issues are current faced by Asia urban regions (health, urban expansion, arable land conflict and natural disaster, and climate change)? In this study, we analyze the dynamics of urbanization and its impacts on land use, temperature, and vegetation NDVI for a longer time series. We will examine the dynamics of Shanghai’s population growth, land use and land cover changes, and ecological consequences during rapid urban expansion. We will also assess the extent of association between economic growth, migration, and urban expansion, between urban expansion and local air temperature. This rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides the background of historical development in Shanghai and summarizes data and method we use. Section 3 examines urban growth in the context of demographic and land use aspects. Section 4 discusses environmental impacts of urbanization, and Section 5 highlights the conclusions.
2 Study area, data and method 2.1 Brief overview of Shanghai The modem history of Shanghai starts in the mid-nineteenth century when the city and immediate area were seized by foreign, imperial powers and recreated it as an international trade port and later as a financial center. By the 1920s, Shanghai was one of the largest financial centers in the world with a population of 2.5 million. The city was described as one of the most dynamic and sophisticated capitalist centers the world had ever seen. Shanghai city experienced rapid growth and spatial expansion during this period relative to what had previously taken place. The Japanese occupation of Shanghai in 1937, World War II, and the revolution of 1949 dramatically changed the process and pattern of urban growth, as the city was transformed from what could be largely described as a capitalist, colonial city to a centrally planned socialist city. During the period from the early 1950s to the early 1990s, Shanghai did not expand significantly, except for urban–rural fringe industrial development during the 1970s and 1980s.
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In the early 1990s, the trajectory of the city dramatically changed again, as China’s open-door policy and associated economic reform brought new development and economic expansion. Shanghai has become a world city in the eastern Asia and international financial center once again. Currently, Shanghai has an area of 6,341 km2 and a population of about 19 million (Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau 2009), and is the largest city in China in terms of population and one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world. Located in the East Asia monsoon zone and China’s central eastern coast at the mouth of the Yangtze River, the city has a humid subtropical climate and experiences four distinct seasons, the average annual temperature is 15.8°C, and the annual rainfall is 1,149 mm. Shanghai has many rivers, canals, streams and lakes and is known for its rich water resources as part of the Taihu drainage area; it is one of the most important planting areas for rice, wheat and rape, with various natural ecosystems. Moreover, it is one of the country’s highest developing economic zones. The regional GDP is 1219 billion Yuan in 2007 (Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau 2008), accounting for 5% of China’s total GDP. 2.2 Data sources The datasets used in this study included: land use data from 1980, 1995, 2000 and 2008 retrieved from TM images; annual temperature data of 11 meteorological stations in Shanghai from 1961 to 2008 (Fig. 1); 10-day composite SPOT VGT-DN data at the resolution of 1 km in platecarree geographic projection available from for years 1999 to 2007. Demographic and economic data come from population census (1990, 2000) and survey (1995, 2005) as well as statistical yearbooks. We applied the definition of urban used in China’s 2000 national population census and 1% population survey. We used these data directly for demographic projections for Shanghai, and aggregated them into total urban–rural flows. The land use data in 1980, 1995, 2000, 2008 was obtained from Chinese National Resource and Environment Data Center, and meteorological data was from Shanghai Climate Center and DN data was downloaded from the VITO (Flemish Inst. Technological Research, Belgium; http://free.vgt.vito.be/home.php) and the atmospheric, radiometric and geometric correction had been done. The data consist of reflectance in spectral bands B0, B2, B3 and SWIR, which correspond, respectively, to the blue (0.43–0.47 Am), red (0.61–0.68 Am), near-infrared (0.78– 0.89 Am) and short-wave infrared (1.58–1.75 Am) domains (Nicolas et al. 2006). 2.3 Methods Population forecasting and migration growth projections use the demographic cohort and multi-state methods (Cao
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Fig. 1 Study area and the distribution of 11 meteorological stations
et al. 2011). The term “urbanization” has been used both to describe a process (of becoming more predominantly urban) and a state (typically, for a given region, the proportion of the population residing in urban areas); in this paper, we use the latter, simpler definition (i.e., the level of urbanization). Globally, urbanization is generally associated with two sets of factors: rising agricultural productivity, which permits the release of resources from agriculture, and industrial economies of scale and agglomeration, which favor the concentration of resources in urban areas. Migration in this paper refers that rural to urban migration from other provinces to Shanghai who states at least for more than half-year. Migration and population are counted by the cohort method. The rural to urban crossing provincial migration scenarios are based on the regional economic plan and fertility analysis. Vegetation is the natural link of soil, atmosphere and moisture on the earth (Chen et al. 1998) and acts as a sensitive indicator in the research of environment and global change (Habib et al. 2008). NDVI indicates chlorophyll activity and is calculated from ðband 3 band 2Þ=ðband 3 þ band 2Þ. NDVI values range between −1 and 1. With a view to facilitate the storage, NDVI is converted to a DN value in the 0–255 data range using the formula: DN ¼ ðNDVI þ 0:1Þ=0:004. Therefore, we convert DN into NDVI using: NDVI ¼ 0:004 DN 0:1. The maximum value compositing (MVC) procedure as described by Holben (1986) was used to merge monthly NDVI values from three 10-day synthesis NDVI data. The resulting
surface reflectance value for each pixel thus corresponds to the data with maximum NDVI value in a 30-day period. MVC for the synthesis of daily NDVI values was found to be a reliable procedure for change detection of the vegetation cover (Zhou et al. 2009). Annual mean NDVI was calculated as the average of monthly NDVI from January to December.
3 Migration, urban growth and land-use change in Shanghai 3.1 Rural to urban migration and urban growth Massive immigration, caused by economic growth and more working opportunities, to Shanghai region, has led to rapid urban growth. At the same time, land use in this region has changed greatly during the past two decades. According to demographers, the accelerated rate of urban growth in developing countries is the result of two driving forces: a rise in the rate of natural population increase and net urban immigration (Rogers 1983). With the implementation of household responsibility system since 1978, China’s agricultural productivity and the output of grain and other agricultural products have been significantly promoted, which have not only satisfied the needs of newly increased urban population, but also facilitated and supported the transformation of rural labors to nonagricultural activities at
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large scale. Regards to urban population growth, China differs from other developing countries in that, since its family planning policy has brought about a decline or “O” growth with natural population growth in some urban regions. It is thus rural-to-urban migration and the transformation of rural settlements into cities that have been the most important determinants of the rapid urbanization of the past two decades. Net urban immigration has obviously directly promoted mega-urban and urban land expansion. Shanghai’s natural population growth has been negatively since 1994. Its total fertility rate was much lower than replacement level of 2. 1. According to census date in 2000, women’s total fertility rate in Shanghai was only 0.8, which was much lower than the European level. Despite the continuing negative natural growth of Shanghai’s population, its total population has increased, obviously due to immigration. In 1992, the registered population was close to 9 million; 17 years later (2009), this figure increased to 19 million. During these 17 years, migration from rural areas to Shanghai has increased dramatically and accounted for a disproportionate level of all such migration in China (Fig. 2). Based on the 2000 census, migrants in Shanghai (3.35 million migrants) made up 21.6% of the city’s total population, and that rural–urban migration accounted for 56% of Shanghai’s immigrants. Correspondingly, this implied that urban–urban migration in Shanghai is an extremely important driving force of its population growth. In the meantime, IIASA’s (International Institute for Apply System Analysis) recent projection results indicate that Shanghai is and will benefit from a demographic window of opportunity, in the sense that their working populations will increase for a time. The decline in workforce implied by low natural growth rates will be offset by an increasing number of young migrant workers. Figure 3 shows clearly that if no new migration occurs, Shanghai’s population will decline.
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a
With new migration
b
No new migration
Fig. 3 Project Shanghai city population in 2010 with migration and no migration a With new migration. Sources: authors’ manuscript based on the population survey 2000 and statistical yearbook and scenarios of fertility, mortality and net migration of Shanghai city. b No new migration. Sources: authors’ manuscript based on the population survey 2000 and Statistical yearbook and scenarios of fertility, mortality and net migration of Shanghai city
Fig. 2 The share of inter-provincial rural to urban migration and total population of China in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong in 2000. *Migration refers to those who migrated and live for more than a halfyear, which is not included in the un-registered floating migrants. Sources: Author’s calculations based on national and provincial data from population census of 2000
3.2 Urban land use and land cover change Figure 4 shows the land use map of Shanghai in 1980, 1995, 2000 and 2008. In Shanghai, farmland accounts for
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Fig. 4 Land use maps in Shanghai by year (a 1980, b 1995, c 2000, d 2008)
the largest area, followed by area of building land. Grassland areas account for the least share. Compared with that in the 1980s, land use in 2008 changed obviously, with building land, including residential and constructional areas, expanding greatly, and a large amount of farmland was replaced with building land. Moreover, the increase in building land mainly occurred around central urban areas and towns of Shanghai.
The change in forest land, grassland and water body was little. Land use change from 1995 to 2000 was relatively little. However, in the first 8 years of the twenty-first century, land use change was significant. In 2008, the area of farmland, forest land, grassland, water body and building land was 3,735, 99, 15, 475 and 2,061 km2, respectively, accounting for 58.5%, 1.6%, 0.2%, 7.4% and 32.3%, respectively, of the
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total area in Shanghai. With the rapid decrease in farmland, residential areas showed the highest increase. The total area of changed land use from 1980 to 2008 was 3,076.2 km2, accounting for 48.8% of the total area of Shanghai (Fig. 5). Farmland had a net decrease of 1,497.8 km2, accounting for 28.6% of the total farmland area. At the same time, forest land increased by 110.6% (52 km2), grassland by 17.7% (2 km2), water body by 28.3% (105 km2) and building land by 221.5% (1,420 km2). With urbanization and economic development, a large area of high-quality farmland changed to residential and constructional areas in Shanghai.
Fig. 6 Correlation between the change of farmland area and gross domestic product in Shanghai
3.3 Association between urban growth and land use change In the above two sections, we discussed what have changed in terms of population and land use and land cover in Shanghai over last two decades. We use the regression method to analyze how economic and population growth affected urban land expansion and arable land conversion in Shanghai region. Figure 6 shows a very close negative association between the logarithm of GDP and area of cultivated land using the time series date from 1949 to 2005. In more detail, when the level of GDP is high (corresponding to recent years), the association is much stronger; in contrast, when the level of GDP is low (corresponding to the earlier years), the association is much weaker. This is fully in line with our previous discussion. Figure 7 further shows a very close
Land use change (102km2)
a
18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -18
Relative change(%)
b
positive association between urban land expansion and urban population growth during 1990 to 2005. Figures 6 and 7, together with our previous analysis, clearly indicate that local economy development and its induced population growth have greatly influenced the extent, pace, and spatial distribution of urbanization, in particular of urban land expansion. The development of Shanghai during last two decades has supported the view that urbanization, the most extreme anthropogenic land cover transformation, has recently become an important theme in integrated ecological and socioeconomic research (Alberti and Marzluff 2004). The link between population growth and land use and land cover shows that the impact of population growth and migration are serious considerations for developing mitigation and adaptation planning strategies at local level, and for future research on the demographic, and economic dimensions of climate change.
Farm land
Forest land
Grass land Water body Building land
Farm land
Forest land
Grass land Water body Building land
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50
Fig. 5 a Absolute and b relative change of land use in Shanghai during 1980–2008
Fig. 7 Correlation between the urban land expansion and population growth in Shanghai
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4 Environmental consequences of population growth and urban land expansion 4.1 Changes in city air temperature In the urbanization process, removal of rural land cover types such as soil, water, and vegetation and their replacement with common urban materials such as asphalt, concrete, and metal have significant environmental implications including reduction in evapotranspiration, promotion of more rapid surface runoff, increased storage and transfer of sensible heat, and reduction of air and water quality (Yue et al. 2006). Urban areas generally have higher solar radiation absorption and a greater thermal capacity and conductivity because of being covered with buildings, roads, and other impervious surfaces. Urban areas tend to experience a relatively higher temperature comparing to the surrounding rural areas. The thermal difference between the urban and the rural areas, in conjunction with waste heat released from urban houses, transportation, and industry, contribute to the development of the urban heat island (Weng 2000). Urbanization has obvious impacts on air temperature in Shanghai (Fig. 8). During 1961–1980, the urbanization in Shanghai was little, and correspondingly, the difference of air temperature between urban and exurban areas was little, with urban area and Baoshan had the highest mean annual temperature of 15.7°C, and Chongming had the lowest mean annual temperature of 15.2°C (Fig. 8a). During 1981– 1990, the difference of air temperature between urban and exurban areas increased slowly, with urban area had the highest mean annual temperature of 16.0°C, and Chongming had the lowest mean annual temperature of 15.2°C (Fig. 8b). During 1991–2000, the pace of urbanization and industrialization in Shanghai became faster, so the difference of air temperature between urban and exurban area increased rapidly, with urban area had the highest mean annual temperature of 16.9°C, and Chongming had the lowest mean annual temperature of 15.7°C (Fig. 8c). In suburban areas, the mean annual temperature in Minhang, Jiading and Baoshan was 16.4°C, 16.6°C and 16.4°C, respectively. During 2001–2008, air temperature in urban area was also the highest, with a mean annual temperature of 17.9°C, and the mean annual temperature in Chongming was also the lowest (16.5°C), so the difference increased to 1.4°C (Fig. 8d). The mean annual temperature in suburb districts of Minhang, Jiading, Baoshan and Pudong was 17.5°C, 17.2°C, 17.5°C and 17.2°C, respectively. 4.2 Changes of vegetation NDVI In the process of urbanization, natural vegetation cover is largely replaced by paved surfaces. Open spaces are maintained for recreational or ornamental purposes, so that the
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ecosystem dynamics of the remaining “green” areas of the city are usually quite different from those of the open countryside. Gallo et al. (1993) observed that the satellite-derived NDVI sampled over urban and rural regions composed of a variety of land surface environments were linearly related to the differences in observed urban and rural temperatures. The difference in the NDVI between urban and rural environments appears to be an indicator of the differences in the surface properties (i.e., evaporation and heat storage capacity) between the two environments (Gallo and Owen 1999). Urbanization has great impacts on vegetation NDVI in Shanghai. Figure 9 shows the mean annual NDVI in 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2007. From 1999 to 2007, the area of higher mean annual NDVI (NDVI >0.3) decreased gradually, and the area of lower mean annual NDVI (0.1
5 Discussion and conclusion Shanghai had rapid urbanization over the last 2 decades accompanied by large-scale demographic and economic development. However, rapid urban growth has caused obvious ecological and environmental changes. In this study, the major findings are summarized as follows. (1) Shanghai’s population growth has been largely driven by massive cross-provincial rural to urban migration for urban industries. The rapid urban growth has directly affected the most extreme anthropogenic land cover and land use and thus rural migration in the context of Chinese cities has been become an important theme in integrated ecological and socioeconomic sustainable development. (2) Land use has changed significantly in Shanghai as a large amount of farmland was replaced with building land. The increase of building land mainly occurred around central urban areas and towns, and, residential area accounted for about 59% of the total building area during 2000–2009. (3) Urbanization has obvious impacts on air temperature in Shanghai. With the large-scale urbanization in Shanghai after 1991, the difference of air temperature between urban and exurban area increased rapidly, from 0.8°C during 1981–1990 to 1.4°C during 2001–2008. Urban growth also has impacts on vegetation NDVI in
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Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of temperature in Shanghai (a 1961–1980, b 1981–1990, c 1991–2000, d 2001–2008)
Shanghai. From 1999 to 2007, the area of higher mean annual NDVI decreased, and the area of lower mean annual NDVI increased gradually. Moreover, the decrease of NDVI mainly occurred around the urban areas and towns. Shanghai’s change has shown that urbanization is contributing to climate change. Policy suggestion from migration and land use aspects are given below. (1) The management of rural to urban migration is one of the main concerns in sustainable development of city. In recent years in Shanghai, migrants have become more permanent residents in the city; housing, infrastructure,
energy, water and will be provided in city governance, which will have to be covered by the city’s natural resources and capacity. If the growth in the city’s population does not appropriately match the natural and infrastructure development, the social and environment pressure will lead to social and political tensions. (2) Land is a financing resource in China. In cities, land is often the most important asset used for financing urban infrastructure and services, and thus, this instrument is one of the major factors of urban expansion. City governments should not assume increases in the value of land by reassessing the value of properties that benefit living taxes, but should also consider the cost for environment-related costs due to urban land expansion.
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Fig. 9 Means annual NDVI in Shanghai (a 1999, b 2002, c 2005, d 2007)
Shanghai’s demographic–economic–environment rapid development urbanization process may help to understand sustainability of urban spatial transformation. Nowadays, more than half of the world’s population live in urbanized places, in particular, major cities of emerging economies and Asian countries, since their demographic growth of major cities continues as a result of massive transition from rural agrarian to urban–industrial society. This salient of
Asian urban transformation moves much more rapidly and involves far more people than in the past, e.g., European urban transition. Current and future trends in the rise of the metropolis, and global convergence of urban form present significant challenges to sustainability efforts in urban areas, therefore, increasing urban spatial transformation research for enhancing urban sustainability is significantly important for city planners and decision makers.
1374 Acknowledgments This work was supported by National Science Foundation of China (No. 40801043, 40921140410, 40901031, 41001283 and 70933005) and Shanghai Municipal Natural Science Foundation (09ZR1428800). We thank Haizhen Mu and Qingping Yu, Shanghai Climate Center and Laixiang Sun, London University for their contributions.
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