Emile Benoi,

Our earth, we now realize, does not and can not supply us with an unlimited amount of usable energy, raw materials, foodstuffs, safe dumping grounds for our waste products--or even standing room. It is not an inexhaustible cornucopia. It is much more like an interplanetary vehicle, where resources must be carefully conserved, waste products must be minimized and recycled, and where the number of passengers must be carefully limited to those that can be taken aboard without overcrowding. This is a radically new way of thinking about the earth and involves as profound a change as did the Copernican astronomy. Our world, it now appears, is not only not at the center of the universe, but can not even provide a durable habitat for m a n - - a t least not without the positive restraint and cooperation of its inhabitants. The world's population is now approaching 4 billion people (about twice as many as in my youth) and there are nearly 80 million more to feed, clothe and house every year--a number equal to two-thirds the combined population of Germany and Britain. Most of them are avid for a rapid rise in their standard of living. An observer of American life once defined an ideal income as "25% more than one has." With the impact of the mass media, this attitude is now becoming worldwide. We have, in effect, a revolution of rising expectation, superimposed on a population explosion, in a world of fixed dimensions and limited productive capacity. Therein lies the problem. Simon Kuznets recently calculated that the private enterprise economies of the developed countries have maintained an average growth of total output since the late eighteenth century which is some forty to fifty times faster than growth rates previously. The gospel of economic development is now inspiring similar or even 14

more ambitious goals in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. But it does not appear that spaceship earth could now safely deliver even a U.S. "poverty standard" of living to the present world population--let alone to the 6 to 7 billion likely to be here at the end of the century. Indeed, the evidence summarized below suggests that if world production and consumption of the present type keeps rising even at the present pace, we risk a breakdown of world civilization, and the destruction of a large part or all of the world's population, within the lifetime of our grandchildren--or their grandchildren.

The Energy and Raw Materials Crisis The public is now aware of an "energy-crisis." But the shortage of fuels is only one part of the looming scarcities of many irreplaceable raw materials. The conventionally estimated usable reserves of most of the world's irreplaceable raw materials would be exhausted in 50 to 100 years if the present growth of demand continued. Even if new discoveries and technologies could quintuple our usable reserves, and even if we were able to reclaim and recycle 75 percent of our metallic wastes, this would accommodate our rising rates of consumption only for a brief additional period--one that would be measured in decades rather than centuries. We are now using up more irreplaceable raw materials in a decade than in all mankind's previous history up to World War 1, and for most of these products the amounts used are doubling every 15 or 20 years. How long the remaining supplies last is much more sensitive to the rate at which we use them up than to the additional amounts we can find. New discoveries and techniques may enable us sooner or later to find and exploit far more than five times present reserves. But will this happen in time to prevent Society

A S urvivalist Manifesto looming shortages and neo-imperialist struggles to preempt part of the dwindling supplies? And can we overcome the formidable pollution problems a~d meet the enormous cheap energy requirements involved in exploiting low grade reserves or reserves in difficult environments--e.g., on or beneath the deep ocean floor? Perhaps breeder or fusion reactors, or geothermal, solar or other unconventional energy sources, may one day provide us with a virtually limitless source of power. But this would not necessarily be cheap power. The capital costs (which in fact are the main costs) would still be high. For a considerable time to come the danger is not the total exhaustion of supplies (especially since it is often possible--at a cost--to substitute more abundent for scarcer commodities) but the steady inflationary rise in costs and mounting pollution as we are driven to use lower grade and substitute materials, and to divert more of our scarce energy supplies to their recovery and refining, plus the danger of bitter politico-military struggles for control of the remaining high grade and low cost supplies.

Food Shortages The second main aspect of the environmental problem has to do with food supplies, which have in recent years grown hardly more rapidly than population. Now, despite the "green revolution," there has been a sudden disappearance of the formerly large reserve stocks, with hunger and the threat of famine in the poorer countries, and inflationary price increases and threats of shortage even in the rich ones. The world has been increasing its food output by technological expedients which render future supplies increasingly precarious.Thus the use of artificial fertilizers may reduce the natural fertility of the soil, chemical insecticides may

March/April

destroy the natural enemies of plant pests, as well as breeding poison-resistant strains of these pests, while the clearing of forests, overgrazing, and ploughing under of new land areas, with marginal rainfall, plus poor farming practices, may lead to serious loss of soil and available water supplies and highly undependable crops. Meanwhile, over-fishing and pollution seriously threaten the continuing supply of fish which comprises the main source of essential animal proteins for a substantial segment of humanity. No doubt synthetic foodstuffs, and agriculture and meat and fish production in controlled environments, will make an increasingly important contribution to human nutrition, especially with respect to proteins. But even under the optimistic assumption of a doubling of average agricultural output per acre, the M1T Limits to Growth study for the Club of Rome projects catastrophic food crises in the twenty-first century--and this is after the further optimistic assumptions that with universal access to improved contraceptives no unwanted children will be born, and that the long term decline in the desire family size with rising family income will continue. As will be seen below, I do. not accept the apocalyptic conclusions which are usually supposed to flow from this study. However, not even the penetrating critique prepared by a special Task Force of the World Bank has been able to prove that the study's assumptions were necessarily overpessimistic, or that even with more optimistic but plausible assumptions the projected crisis could be delayed for more than an additional one or two hundred years. The other major aspect of the environmental problem is pollution, which is not merely a matter of aesthetics, as is sometimes suggested. Pollution offers a particularly insidious threat to health because pollutants can pile up in the environment for decades before their 15

adverse effects are even suspected. Many such products are already known to be lethal in high enough concentrations-such as lead, mercury, DDT, radioactive wastes, etc.--and have some ill effects even at much lower concentrations. As yet, we have no agreed basis for estimating how high an average level of pollution it would take to reduce life expectancy by a significant amount. In the L i m i t s to G r o w t h study previously mentioned, the seemingly optimistic working assumption was made that it would take 75 times the present pollution levels to reduce the average life span by 15 percent, and 95 times the present levels to reduce it by 50 percent. Even so, this study projected average pollution levels in the next century that would destroy a large part of the human race, if present growth trends in production continue. In Japan, where illnesses from pollution already number in the hundreds of thousands, it has been predicted by one pollution expert (Jun Ui) that half the people will be dead from pollution in 20 years, if present growth rates continue. There have, of course, been similarly dire predictions before, which turned out to be alarmist. But such precedents should not lead one to reject the projected food and raw materials shortages and pollution dangers out of hand. Premature cries of "Wolf" do not, after all prove that no wolf will ever appear! The general direction in which we are moving is unmistakable, and so is the final result, unless there is a major change in policy. The burden .of proof is now on those who adivse continued reliance on muddling through. Granted, it has worked so far. But every extinct species and extinct civilization was a success story for a while. And it is precisely the characteristic of exponential growth (in which the doubling time keeps getting shorter and shorter) that can quite suddenly change a relatively comfortable situation into one of desperate crisis. It is easy, but unjustified, to dismiss such considerations as "doomsday thinking." Survivalism does not assert that our civilization is doomed to destroy itself--only that it could, and that it may if it keeps moving in the present direction. In such a situation, to urge a change in direction is not defeatism but realism and responsibility. It is irresponsible to take such serious and unnecessary risks until we are sure that they are not as dangerous as they look. And it is immoral to foreclos~ any options to our descendents. What Help From Technology? It is not true, as often alleged, that such projections ignore the future progress of technology. On the contrary, the projections we have cited incorporate considerable technological optimism, since they assume that 16

we will soon be able to: (1) extract five times as much raw materials as have already been discovered, (2) eliminate 75 percent of pollution per unit of output, (3) double farm output per acre, (4) recycle 75 percent of all metal wastes, and (5) eliminate all unwanted births. But the projections point to a likely breakdown in the twenty-first century, despite these optimistic technological assumptions. There may, in principle, be technological solutions to all the problems mentioned, given enough time. But is a solution available when needed? It is now a quarter century since the basic technology of nuclear power has been understood, yet nuclear plants still account for only a small fraction of world energy production, the breeder reactor is still in the developmental stage, and serious unresolved safety and pollution problems impede rapid expansion of the program. Early technologies in which society has invested large sums tend to be protected against the emergence of more advanced technologies, even to the point of skimping on the required research and development (R&D). And the progress of pure science, on which the possibilities of major advances in technology depend, is limited by the number of people with the requisite talents, and the inherent difficulties in unlocking nature's secrets. In addition, we have now seen a trend toward a decline of expenditure on graduate education and research and development. U.S. expenditures on R&D have declined from 3 percent of GNP in 1967 to 2.6 percent in 1971, and there has even been a decline in the absolute amounts spent, corrected for price increases. Similar declines have occurred in France and the United Kingdom. This slowdown in R&D derives in part from the jealousy of politicians, business leaders and others in the old power establishment occasioned by the rapid improvement in the salaries, consultant fees, prestige and influence of the learned professions, which threatened to bring about an important shift in power if continued. For these and other reasons we cannot be confident that technology will always move fast enough to solve all the formidable problems that the exponential growth of population and production will create.

A Policy of Selective Growth The crucial question is what changes are really required to avoid these dangers. Some have concluded that we will need to stop all growth and freeze average per capita incomes more or less at present levels. If we stopped immediately, this would involve keeping world per capita GNP at around $1,000 a year--a level something like that of Venezuela, or roughly one-fifth that of the United States or Germany. Unless there were an enormous redistribution of income internationally (which is neither economically or politically feasible) this would mean that the poor countries would have to Society

-.~'~S':.r

~~'~ ~=~~ These editorials The Progressive were used verbatim in this Congressional resolution calling for the impeachment of the President and continue to generate nationwide response... -~~--.--~"~-'-~:

Jler 8 ~ 8 - - ~ m m

~.

including use by members of the House Judiciary Committee-For copies of this historic material: for example: Reprints of "A Call to Action" including the Bill of I

xxmr 3

Impeachment: 10 copies for $1 and with the first 784 orders we will include a free copy of the issue in which these editorials appeared. [ ] I want to subscribe. Please bill me $8 for a ten month introductory subscription (regular price $10). name_

address city The Progressive 408 West Gorham Street Madison, WI 53703

state

zip

M4LI

stay poor indefinitely. Fortunately, nothing like this is really required. What is needed instead is selective growth. We can look forward to a continued rise in per capita income and real welfare in all countries if there is a shift: (1) from goods production to services and leisure; (2) from status-displaying goods to goods yielding mainly intrinsic satisfactions; (3) from resource-wasteful and polluting goods to resource-conserving and pollution-combatting goods; (4) from population growth to population decline; (5) from restraining to encouraging expenditures on graduate education and research and development while reallocating such expenditures to give new emphasis to environmental problems. The advantage of services over goods is that they absorb little or no scarce raw materials and create little or no pollution. Most services, of course, have to be provided by some physical mechanism, and do require the production of some complementary goods: hospitals, offices and medical equipment for health services; classrooms, offices and laboratories for education and research; and so forth. But the relative strain on the environment over the long run is far lower than from the production and consumption of goods which not only require the construction of facilities and equipment but which use such facilities and equipment for the further transformation of raw materials into products which will be used up and discarded. Few people realize how important a part of our income services have already become in the richer countries: they comprised about 42 percent of the U.S. GNP in 1971 and 1972. With rising incomes, countries naturally spend more of their incomes on services. It is expenditure on education, research, health, travel, entertainment, advice, public administration, etc., that is characteristic of the highest living standards. An effort to raise still further the share of such services in the national income might make a major contribution to welfare, because people may now be spending relatively more on goods and less on services than is in their own best interest. There are two interconnected reasons for thinking so: the influence of manipulatory advertising, and the "status symbol" aspect of so much of goods consumption. Almost no one in the market economies can escape the constant barrage of advertising pushing us to want more and newer products, and to become dissatisfied with and to discard what we already have. While such advertising is not all-powerful, it is unlikely that billions of dollars would be spent on it if it were not effective in modifying consumption patterns. Now al18

most all of this advertising is pushing goods not services. Governments do not sell their services and thus hardly need to advertise. The professions are generally restrained by custom from advertising. And even most non-professional services sold for gain utilize only simple informational-type advertising like classified ads and announcements. Thus the main impact of advertising is to distort consumption in favor of goods rather than services. The other reason why goods consumption often contributes relatively less to welfare than would services, is that a considerable part of the satisfaction the goods render is not intrinsic but as a status symbol. Viewed anthropologically, our society in some ways resembles that of the Kwakiutl Indians of British Columbia, who in their famous Potlatch, burn canoes and blankets to establish or improve their social position. In our case, we buy items that are unnecessary or larger and fancier than we really need, and which have built-in obsolescence and very high operating costs--partly to prove that we can afford to do so and thereby to hold or improve our social status. There is some satisfaction, no doubt, in exhibiting a superior status, though there are offsetting welfare losses in the unhappiness and envy of those who are thereby made to feel inferior and unsuccessful. But even if we regard status differentiation and display as necessary to motivate high performance, conspicuous consumption seems like a needlessly materials-exhausting and polluting way to do it. In part, one could achieve similar effects by awarding medals, titles, or other public honors to major achievers, or even by letting them earn lots of money but motivating them not to spend it (at least on goods) by a sort of spending tax. Such a spending tax would tax not income, but income plus capital gains, minus new savings or investments, and also minus expenditures for medical, educational, cultural, domestic and certain other services. The high income recipient could still obtain the psychic rewards of commanding additional services; his large income could provide an objective, and more or less public, indicator of success; and he could still feel the pride of possession of large investments, but he could not consume more than a moderate amount of goods without exposing himself to a ruinous level of taxes. To cut back on wasteful goods consumption, we will need not only strong tax incentives, but strong curbs on high pressure advertising. We have too readily accepted the special pleading of the advertising industry that the prosperity of our economy depends on inducing people to buy more and more things that they don't really need. Actually, up to a point, prosperity is stimulated if people consume less and save and invest more. Moreover, the investment can, if necessary, be increasingly in human rather than physical capital: in education, Society

Write for New Catalog

ACADEMIC

PRESS,INC. A Subsidiary of Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers

New York and London

111 FIFTH A V E N U E , N, Y, 10003

FIRST CLASS P E R M I T NO. 45419 NEW YORK, N.Y.

BUSINESS

REPLY

MAIL

NO POSTAGE STAMP NECESSARY IF MAILED iN THE UNITED STATES.

Postage will be paid by

ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. 111 FIFTH AVENUE NEW YORK, N.Y. 10003 ATT: PROMOTION DEPT./s3

Write for New Catalog 9

O

9

ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. A Subsidiary of Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers

New York and London

111 FIFTH AVENUE, N. Y. 10003

1. THE MODERN WORLD-SYSTEM by IMMANUEL WALLERSTEIN 1974, about 400 pp., approx. $15.00

2. THE NEXT GENERATION by JOHN U. OGBU 1974, 342 pp., $11.50/s

3. ECOLOGY AND CHANGE by C. GREGORY KNIGHT 1974, about 300 pp., approx. $13.00

4. CREATING EFFICIENT INDUSTRIAL ADMINISTRATION by ARTHUR L. STINCHCOMBE

| ACADEMIC PRESS, INC. 111 FIFTH AVENUE, N.Y., N.Y. 10003

Please send the following circled items: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

[] Bill me [ ] Payment herewith [ ] Send Catalog

1974, 220 pp., $9.50/s

5. LAW AND ORDER IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE by JOEL B. SAMAHA

Name Affiliation

1974, 192 pp., $9.95/s

6. Please send me a FREE complimentary copy of the Journal of Urban Economics and subscription price information.

Address City/State/Zip New York residents please add tax.

6.

All the great new insights, ideas, techniques, tries and

triumphs that could build sanity back into our cities Yours to discover in one remarkable book club:

The Libraryof UrbanAffairs Between the covers of the books on this page you will find more excitement, common sense a n d - yes - inspiration than you imagined possible in this topsy turvy world. Here, to build sanity back into our cities and our lives are some of the most important books of our times. The brilliantly imaginative works of designers, architects and planners, the perceptive analyses of urbanologists, the clear-eyed investigations of sociologists, Books that could change your way of thinking, books that may change your way of life. Only one book club brings them to you. A n d - a n o t h e r note of sanity-all at worthwhile discounts. Shouldn't you investigate?

Take any 3 books all for only $3.95 (values aS high as $50.90) (i! you will Join now and agree to take only 3 more books at handsome discounts in the next 12 months)

(Retail prices shown)

31~20, CITY PLANNING BIBLIOGRAPHY. Third Eclltlon. George C Baster and Holway R Jones Guides you instantly through the maze of Informahon on 2000 vital books, reports and articles --on sub acts ranging from computer graphics to shopp ng-center design, Counts as 2 of your 3 books $20.00

53801. HOUSING URBAN AMERICA. Edited by John Pynoos, Chester Hartman end RePOrt Schafar This defmihve hOUSlrlg text includes more than 40 experts and ranges from the raging issue of neighborhood heterogeneity to real estate economics to industry production problems Over 600 pages Counts as 2 of your 3 books $25.00

40510. COPING: On the Practice of Government. Daniel P. Moynlhan Spirited attack on a host of present-day pohcy-makmg dilemmas rangmg from the role of the automobde, welfare reform, and architecture to urban programs and education $10.00 38260. CITY POLICE. Jonathan Rubmslem "There Js only one reason why this book, CITY POLICE, should be read because it is, quite simply, the best book that has ever been written about the working habits, dally routmes and prwate behefs of the big city cop It is a stunning portrayal."--James Q Wilson $10.00

37391. CENTERS FOR THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT. Victor Gruen The emment planner and architect lays out the newest developments m shopping center design . and then shows how this complex planning can apply to new mulhfunctlona{ centers for c~t~es. FilLed w~th plans and case $24.95 studms Counts as 2 of your 3 books

73110. PUBLIC PLANNING/SOCIAL PLANNING AND SOCIAL CHANGE. Why and where bu-

reaucracies break down in carrying out the bestlacd public plans, end how flexible strategJes can make them work better Plus realistic new strategies for helping the aged, poor, criminals, and others The 2 count as one book $13.90 63160. MORE EQUALITY. Herbert J. Gans The problems and prospects of achlevmg greater economic, social and pohtlcal equahty among Americans Forecast" positive1 $7.95 85731. UTOPIA OR OBLIVION. R Buc'kmmster Fuller Bucky's thinking at its most exciting "LIvingry," "geosoclal revolution," and other Fuller terms a~l come to hfe, and demonstrate his unique force in the modern design world. $11.95

74070. RETRACKING AMERICA, John Frledmann New strategies for planning to make a true guJdance system for society with a bold p~an for involving more people in pt $7.95

74130. THE RISE OF THE UNMELTABLE ETH-

85531. URBANMAN: The Psychology of Urban Survival. Edited by John Helmet and Ned A Eddmgton Getting to work waiting in hnes . . . avoidmg wotence and preserwng peace of mad-how do people organize thmr behavior to deal with the stress of everyday city life ? Top thmkers probe from several surprising new tacks. $9.9S

39621. THE COMING OF POST INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY: A Venture In Social Forecasting. Daniel Bell. Demonstrates where all the bewildering changes in our society are leading. A major new readmg of the nature of contemporary industrcat society, by the Chairman of the Commission on the Year 2000 $12.50

79120. THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF COMMUNITIES. By Gerald Suit/as Sutttes exammes

NICS/THE CITY IN THE SEVENTIES. Sharp and witty queshons about WASPs, ethmcs and Amencanlzatmn Plus a collection of some of the best thmkers--mctudmg Forrester, Glazer, Suttles and Relss--on topics ranging from anthropology to cybernehcs m urban culture. $15.95 40420. CONVERSATIONS WITH ARCHITECTS. John Cook and Hemrlch Klotz Nme of America's most important architects dJscuss their own work, what they think of each other's work, and their mdlvidual solutions to building a humane environmont. $13.50

1171100. THE WORLD OF THE URBAN WORKING cLAsS. Marc Fried A furl-scale new analysis of the hfe-styles, housmg preferences, and the ethmc styles of the urban workers

Lots of surprises $15.00

63121. MODERNIZING URBAN LAND POLICY. Edited by Matron Clawson Top planners, econo-

how and where "terntorlahty" accounts for Amencan nefghborhoods, and the changing nature of commumty m our crtles $9.$0

mists and lawyers chart the coming changes and show how we can make zoning, tax systems and other land-use controls work more equitably.

73710. REGULATING THE POOR: The Functions of Public Welfare. Frances Fox Piven and Richard ,4 CIoward Is welfare a hoax to keep the poor in

79150. THE SOCIAL ORDER OF THE SLUM, Gerald Suttles Wmner of the C Wright MHIs

their "proper" place? Should it be expanded, revised--or removed? Read this in-depth examination of the myth of American altru=sm $10.00

$11.00

Prize, this brdhant participant-observer study reveals the strict spahal and moral rules that regulate life m the slums $8,95

65960. OPENING UP THE SUBURBS. Anthony Downs Can--and should--the suburbs be opened up to the poor? Here is a new major source book on one of the most explosive issues of the 1970's $7.95 84550. NEW TOWNS IN AMERICA. Compiled by the American Institute of Architects Edited by James Bailey A practical primer on designing and developing new towns, PUD's, and newtowns-m-town Over 20 experts outline the hurdles from basic physical design to pubhc transit

$19.95 85511. VOL 7. THE URBANIZATION OF THE SUBURBS. Edited by Louis H. Masoth and Jeffrey K Hadden 21 experts sketch the explosive changes going on in suburbia--and the policy needs on everythmg from zoning to fmanomg sewers to building "new towns" in the suburbs A meier contribution Counts as 2 of your 3 books. $20.00 If card IS missing, simply write The Library of Urban Affairs Dept 8-57B, Riverside, N J 08075 and indicate 3 books you want

training, health, research, etc. And if a society chooses to use its increased productive power to reduce working hours and increase leisure this may contribute to welfare at least as much as increasing output, even if this does not show up in the GNP accounts as growth. Such policies can also help in reconciling a slowdown in goods production with the fundamental social objective of full employment. Goods production can also be safely increased in certain industries which reduce the adverse ecological impacts of other industries: e.g., the production of pollution control equipment, or the development of substitutes for scarce irreplaceable raw materials (such as power from sunlight, from geothermal energy, or from temperature gradients and tides in the ocean, etc.). Barry Commoner, in The Closing Circle, has shown that certain products mainly developed after World War I1 (e.g., high compression motors, and their fuels, detergents, synthetic textiles, fertilizers, light metals, etc.) have much higher energy inputs and pollution outputs than earlier industries. If their adverse environmental costs were fully reflected in their prices (by taxing them up to the full extent of their social disutility), consumers would be much less eager to buy them. In that case, some of the older industries like coal, steel, railroads, ships, natural fiber textiles, etc., might make a comeback, or new industries with more favorable environmental impacts might be developed.

Negative Population Growth A key part of a selective growth policy is a move toward not just the stabilization, but the actual reduction of population, by temporarily cutting the birth rate below the death rate. Where much of the population is persistently unemployed or underemployed, and where much of the growth of capital is absorbed in building additional housing, sewerage, etc., simply to keep up with the growth in population, there could be a substantial increase in living standards (without additional pollution or raw material depletion) simply from having fewer people. This would reduce the number of consumers without correspondingly reducing the number of effectively employed workers, and would allow a larger share of the savings to be invested in improving the efficiency with which they work. Indeed, S. Enke, an economist, has come to the staggering conclusion that "lf economic resources of a given value were devoted to retarding population growth rather than accelerating production growth, the former resources could be 100 or so times more effective in raising per capita incomes in many less developed countries." No doubt 22

similar, if less dramatic, benefits could be achieved in developed countries also, and from positively reducing population size as well as curtailing its growth. Why should we strain to produce an inadequate livelihood for 4 or more billion people, when we might perhaps easily produce a satisfactory one for 2 billion? Admittedly, to get the average number of children per family down to less than two will be extremely difficult and will involve a serious sacrifice of parental inclinations. (Indeed, as a practical matter it is clearly not yet politically feasible.) But would it be much more difficult, and involve much more of a sacrifice, than getting average family size down to a replacement rate (of around 2.1 surviving children per family, or somewhat more if marriage rates decline) as will sooner or later be necessary in any case in order to avert chaos? Either objective would be difficult to attain, but it would seem worth the extra effort and sacrifice to achieve a negative population growth rate for a while. A society dedicated to this view has recently been formed, called Negative Population Growth, with headquarters at 103 Park Avenue, New York. Finally, for sustainable growth we will have to reverse the present slowdown in graduate education and research and development, and start thinking about how we can usefully spend more on it, while changing its priorities and getting it to contribute more to human survival. We ought to try to develop effective techniques for identifying children of exceptional intelligence at an early age, in all social classes, and in poor as well as rich countries, and should make absolutely sure that at least those with scientific talents and interests get all the education, intellectual stimulus, and research opportunities (not to mention food, clothing and shelter) that they require. There is no waste we can so ill afford as the waste of capabilities to solve our main problems. Besides, it would cost only a fraction of what we now waste trying to force more education on certain young people than they can absorb with present educational methods, or are adequately motivated to acquire, We wdl also need a major shift in R & D priorities, away from those reflecting international rivalries (such as military and space technology) and consumeristic trivia (such as convenience packaging and faster cars) in favor of those promising to contribute to human survival, such as: safe, cheap, effective and convenient contraception, development of relatively non-polluting power sources, biological forms of pest control, and other non-polluting techniques of raising farm productivity, water purification, recycling of various wastes, the measurement and control of various pollutants, etc. Some of our best thinking and planning should also go into the development of ecologically sound patterns of living, such as living close to where one works, arresting the deterioration of valuable social capital such as our Society

railroads and our central cities, and encouraging the production of simple inexpensive "utility models" of consumer goods, with great durability, low operating costs, and ease of maintenance.

Two exceptional studies on university and college faculties

The Energy Crisis and Economic Adjustments to a Selective Growth Policy The present energy crisis is sometimes viewed as having a silver lining insofar as it may forcibly call to people's attention the underlying limits to resources and growth, and get them to begin adopting the measures of conservation and austerity in line with long term requirements for survival. However, it is easy to exaggerate the extent to which this is true. The energy crisis is still generally viewed as a more or less accidental and temporary predicament, from which we could readily extricate ourselves by making some relatively trivial politico-military concessions. It is therefore thought not to require any fundamental readjustments, and the governments involved seem to be trying to get along with an absolute minimum of planning and creation of adjustment mechanisms. As a result, disruptions in unemployment, lost production, inequitable and serious cuts in consumption, as well as widespread and aggravating inconveniences and serious retrogression in the application of pollution controls, seem almost inevitable, unless there is a quick political settlement - - and possibly even if there is such a settlement. In contrast, the adoption of a selective growth policy would be a deliberate, carefully planned affair, recognized from the start as aiming at fundamental long-term changes, proceeding in a logical manner. The amount of incoherence, disruption and unnecessary waste should, therefore, be much less than is likely to be produced by the energy crisis. The adjustment problems would more closely resemble those after major defense cuts, or disarmament, involving a shift of resources to a more satisfactory permanent pattern of utilization, while minimizing short term costs and wastes. This is a problem which has already been extensively studied by the present author with reassuring conclusions, and there have even been some rather successful experiences by governments in adjusting to large defense cutbacks. The temporary sacrifice of some of the theoretical allocational advantages of the free market must be accepted in order to gain during the transition period the welfare and equity benefits of fuller utilization of manpower and productive capacity. This may be achieved by government intervention through taxes and subsidies, the collection and diffusion of information, manpower retraining programs, credit extension, or if necessary by government contracts with private companies, or even direct government employment, regulations, or industrial management where this seems appropriate. The point is simply that the aliocational March/April

By Seymour Martin Lipset of Harvard Umversity and Everett Carll Ladd Jr, Director of the Soctal Science Data Center at the Un=versity of Connecticut

ACADEMICS, POLITICS, ! --~-~= ; = " "'l AND THE 1972 ELECTION: ~ ~r~ ~ An Inmtlgation and f evaluation of recent electoral behavior among uni~emily l end college faculties, It questions conventional interpretations of the NixonMcGovern presJdential contest as it was waged m the university community, and discusses new configurations appearing m faculty pohtrcs. Surprisingly. the authors conclude that 1972 was a story of opportumhes mtssed by Republicans 99 p a g e s $3.00

PROFESSORS, UNIONS AND AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION: An examination of the exb'ecrdinmy growth of fecuUy unlonim In recent years, lie pmclpltants, areH of greatolt support, and likely conMquences.

The importance of this subject can be grasped when it is realized that umonization of college and university professors was scarcely thought of a decade ago, but today more than 300 inst~tuhons are bargaining co(~ecttvely wtth representahves of some 80,000 faculty and other professtonal staff. This book is jointly published by the Carnegie Commission on Higher Education and AEI. 107 pages $1.75

Please send me --copies of [ ] Academtcs,Pohhcs,and the 1972 Elecbon @ $3 00 per copy __copies of [ ] Professors,Unions and American HJgherEducation @ $1 75 per copy DIsceun[s25 to 99 copies--20%, 100 to 299 copies--30%, 300 to 499 copies---40%, 500 and over 50% Name Address

I CJly and State

Ztp _

_

blake checks payable to: American Enterprlle institute for Public Policy Research 1150 SeventeenthStreet, N.W., Washingfon, D.C. 20036

I I

._1

23

advantages of the free market are likely to be less readily or fully achievable in a period of major and rapid shifts in the pattern of demand and production, and are substantially outweighed from a policy viewpoint by the prospective gains from a more interventionist government policy. Once the transition is completed there should be no excessive difficulty in shifting back to a lower level of government intervention if desired. The main problem for selective growth policy will be in getting the basic political decision to adopt it rather than in the economic adjustments required by its implementation. The timing in the application of the program could usually be slowed down to a pace which would minimize the difficulty of necessary structural adjustments. The chief adjustment problem would no doubt be the disemployment of workers previously employed in producing extravagant commodities valued for status rather than intrinsic satisfactions. There should be fewer structural difficulties in shifting workers to the production of utility models in the same industry, or to other civilian industries, than there has been in transferring workers from defense industries to the often very dissimilar civilian industries. Even if the total man hours required for goods production should be cut, this should be viewed as a favorable opportunity to find required manpower for the rapidly expanding pollution control, recycling or service industries, or to accelerate the trend toward reduced working hours by sharing the work with those still employed. Cuts of luxury construction would free workers vitally needed for expanding service industry construction: schools, laboratories, hospitals, specialized retirement homes, etc. Such manpower shifts might occasionally require formal manpower retraining and interim support, but we have learned a good deal about operating such programs in recent years, and new computerized and individualized self-instruction programs have greatly facilitated the relearning process. Another frequently cited structural adjustment problem is that which would arise from the changing age composition of the population in the event of zero or negative population growth. The reduced number of children and increased number of retirees would create certain problems, no doubt, but they hardly seem to be of major importance. More retirement housing would be needed, but fewer elementary schools, and smaller houses would be required for the average sized family. With a negative population growth rate the ratio of dependents to those in the labor force would tend to rise until population again stabilized at a lower level, 24

but this could be offset, if desired, by raising the retirement age, or the amount of permitted earnings after retirement without loss of social security benefits--the latter ought to be done in any case! The fear that a larger share of old people in the population would reduce its intellectual vigor, creativeness, and willingness to innovate seems exaggerated. The crucial consideration would be that a larger share of the population would be adult, and sufficiently free form the burdens ot excessive child rearing to constitute a more attentive and critical electorate and public opinion. What is vital, in any case, is the creativeness and open mindedness of those still employed, and those who are allowed to occupy the most influential positions. These matters are by no means determined by the percentage of old people in the population. Here again, the real problems will be how to win political approval for major measures to reduce the birth rate, and the effectiveness and acceptability of such measures, rather than their incidental economic side effects. Social Transformation and the Survivalist Movement

What kind of society is required to inaugurate the needed reforms? It will certainly not be a laissez-faire society. Individuals acting in pursuit of their short term interests can not take adequate account of long term environmental effects. They are bound to overexploit and waste resources held in common, such as the seas and the atmosphere, and will even overexploit and prematurely deplete privately owned resources, if future income is sufficiently discounted. But it need not be a socialist society either. It is a striking fact that communist governments have been as uncritically committed to maximum material growth, and have encountered as serious pollution, resource depletion and overpopulation problems as have capitalist governments. Modern welfare capitalism can have as much intervention (via taxes, subsidies, loans, standards and regulations) as required to protect the environment and achieve other social objectives, without any more government ownership or operation of productive enterprises than is deemed conducive to efficiency. Such efficiency will become more important than ever as scarcities of high grade materials, and the burdens of pollution, sharply raise industrial costs. Yet a capitalist society with a strong survivalist orientation would be quite different from what we have now. Government would have a much more fundamental and activist role, serving not only as an agent for expressing, reconciling and balancing particular interests, but on behalf of the common interest, and particularly on behalf of future generations. We could then no longer afford to be as indifferent or careless as we have been about the integrity, dedication and ability of those who occupy governmental posts. Such a society would be Society

more integrated and unified than ours--held together by a common awareness of a common peril, and a common determination to overcome it. Such a society might resemble a nation at war--but without the traumata that are inescapable where the safety of some depends on the sacrifice of others. Naturally, it would have to regard war itself, with its monumental waste of resources, and its threat of ultimate environmental degradation as a complete disaster. Such a society would doubtless be less interested in confrontations and violence, in social distinctions and group and national rivalries, and more interested in cooperation to achieve sensible solutions to substantive problems which would maximize safety and welfare. Those who basically distrust government on principle may not approve of such a world. But they should seriously ask themselves whether there is any realistic chance of avoiding a great increase in government intervention in the future, with mounting pressures of pollution, overpopulation, inflationary shortages of food and basic materials, and with rising crime and terrorism, and recurrent fears of war. If government intervention is unplanned and not part of an open and deliberately adopted public policy, it is likely to become increasingly secretive, arbitrary and corrupt--with desperate efforts by the rich and powerful to protect themselves from difficult adjustments and sacrifices and to shift such adjustments and sacrifices to others with less influence. Such a course will inevitably undermine public confidence in governments and institutions and generate rising tensions. Indeed we already seem to have moved a considerable distance along this path. Governments of the present type are too dominated by short run objectives like remaining in office, protecting national interests in international power conflicts, and settling conflicts of interest between rival groups, to do much to bring about the profound social transformation that is now required. They may articulate noble principles, but are simply unable to give environmental reforms the effective priority they require. In the crunch, when the political costs of sacrificing growth becomes apparent, they will disregard the laws on the books, and will delay implementation of environmental regulations, declare special exceptions on the ground of emergency, disguise and cover-up the real dangers involved, and in one way or another evade the issue. Small cosmetic and relatively inexpensive improvements will, of course, continue to occur, but the basic challenge will not be confronted until the climate of opinion has been drastically changed and there is a political willingness to change our life style to whatever extent necessary to assure human survival. Such a basic social transformation can be achieved only by a broad and powerful social movement dedicated to the proposition that assuring human survival is March/April

now the main issue, and must be given an overriding

priority over any other objective, whether it be individual or national enrichment, national power, prestige or glory, economic development of poor countries, the reduction of inequalities, the righting of particular injustices, the triumph of this or that idealogy, or whatever. The rationale is obvious--and compelling: if we survive, we can still pursue these other objectives; if not, why bother? No matter how bitter our partisan struggles, we must join hands to preserve our common habitat, or all our victories will be empty ones. Could any social movement make a real difference? There would appear to be grounds for hope. Already the ecology movement, the peace movement, the civil rights movement, the youth movement, and the Pugwash movement--despite their obvious weaknesses-have been able to exert considerable influence on public opinion, and even on governments. Much therefore might be expected of a broad and unified world social movement for human survival, based on a solid scientific foundation, and inspired by the most elemental sort of idealism: loyalty to one's own species and concern for the fate of one's own descendents. Such a movement might perhaps be started or aided by a Club of Rome initiative, and might derive institutional support from (while also helping to promote) a strong UN Environmental Agency. Within ten to fifteen years such a movement could, I believe, enlist the support of a majority of the world's scientists and scholars, and a good number of its religious, business and political leaders - - making it the major social movement for the remainder of the century. By the beginning of the next century the climate of opinion might be ready for the fundamental changes in laws and social institutions required to cope effectively with the full extent of the environmental crisis. If so, the next quarter-century will appear in retrospect as having achieved the most fundamental revolution in history--the one that gave the human race a second chance. To have achieved even a general conception of the essential predicament of mankind is the proudest achievement of our generation. It is.now our task to deepen and perfect our understanding of the crisis and to begin the process of change that will ultimately enable mankind to survive that crisis and fulfill its potential. No previous generation has been as aware of the fateful, long term implications of its decisions, or has, in consequence, confronted such hard moral choices. [] Erode Beno:t :s proJe.~sor in the CohmTbta Untver.stty Schools o~ Business and lnternattonal AJjairs. Prehmina O' ver+iom o~ thl.s paper (entitled "What Future.[or Spaceship Earth')") w,ere pre~sented at the I X International Congress o/ Anthropologwal and Ethnolog:cal Sctences, in Chwago, on September 7, 1973, and m the Nov -Dec,, i.s,~ueo/ Social Pohcy. 9 1974 by Emile Benott.

25