Common Congress Swiss Society of Pediatrics and Swiss Society of Infectiology

...

2 downloads 350 Views 366KB Size

Eur J Pediatr (2002) 161 : R11–R31

© Springer-Verlag 2002

ABSTRACTS

Common Congress Swiss Society of Pediatrics and Swiss Society of Infectiology Forum Fribourg, Switzerland, June 20–22, 2002

R12

)0 '(9(/230(17$/ 287&20( ,1 &+,/'5(1 :,7+ 352)281' %,27,1,'$6( '(),&,(1&< 3%' :HEHU36FKROO6%DXPJDUWQHU5 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQCV+RVSLWDO%DVHO

)0 $,5:$< 5($&7,9,7,< 2))/,1( (;+$/(' 1,75,& 2;,'( $1' 1,75,7( $5( &255(/$7(' ,1&+,/'5(1 ' 6WUDXE $ 0|OOHU &K %UDXQ)DKUOlQGHU

8 )UH\

* +DOO )+6HQQKDXVHU -+:LOGKDEHU 6ZLVV 3DHGLDWULF 5HVSLUDWRU\ 3K\VLRORJ\ 5HVHDUFK *URXS 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=ULFK %HUQ

,QVWLWXWHRI 6RFLDODQG3UHYHQWLYH0HGLFLQH8QLYHUVLW\RI%DVHO

,QWURGXFWLRQ 2QO\ IHZ GDWD DUH DYDLODEOH RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO RXWFRPHRIFKLOGUHQZLWKSURIRXQGDFW %' $LP7RLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUROHRIRQVHWRIWUHDWPHQWRQRXWFRPH 0HWKRGV ,Q D PXOWLFHQWULF VWXG\ &+ ) ' ZH LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH GHYHORSPHQWDODQGFOLQLFDORXWFRPHRIFKLOGUHQDJH\ ZLWK3%'3DUHQWVDQGGRFWRUVRIWKHVHFKLOGUHQZHUHDVNHGZLWK DQRZQTXHVWLRQQDLUHWKH9LQHODQG$GDSWLYH%HKDYLRU6FDOHDQG &KLOG %HKDYLRU &KHFNOLVW FKLOGUHQ ZHUH GLDJQRVHG E\ QHZERUQVFUHHQLQJLQFKLOGUHQWKHG[ZDVPDGHDWDJH GD\VDIWHUSUHVHQWDWLRQRIFOLQLFDOVLJQV 5HVXOWV 2XW RI WKH LQLWLDOO\ V\PSWRPDWLF FKLOGUHQ KDG DEQRUPDO QHXURORJLFDO ILQGLQJV OHDUQLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV GHYHORSPHQWDOODQJXDJHGLVRUGHUVRSKWKDOPRORJLFDOSUREOHPV KHDULQJLPSDLUPHQWVDQGVNLQDEQRUPDOLWLHVFKLOGUHQOHDUQHGWR ZDON ODWHU WKDQ PRQWKV VKRZHG GHOD\ RI VSHHFK 7RGD\ FKLOGUHQ QHHG D IXQFWLRQDO WKHUDS\ FKLOG DWWHQGV D VFKRRO IRU KDQGLFDSSHGVFKRRO 'LVFXVVLRQ ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ GHOD\HG DFTXLVLWLRQ RI PLOHVWRQHV VXFK DV ZDONLQJ DQG VSHDNLQJ ZDV SUDFWLFDOO\ RQO\ IRXQG LQ SDWLHQWV ZLWKGHOD\HGG[DIWHUWKHGD\ ZLWKELRWLQLGDVHDFWEXW QRWLQWKRVHZLWKKLJKHUDFW ,QFRQWUDVWFKLOGUHQGLDJQRVLV E\ QHZERUQ VFUHHQLQJ DQG WUHDWHG ZLWK ELRWLQ KDG D QRUPDO SV\FKRPRWRUGHYHORSPHQW &RQFOXVLRQ$OOFKLOGUHQZLWKSURIRXQG%'GLDJQRVHGE\QHZERUQ VFUHHQLQJDQGWUHDWHGHDUO\ZLWKELRWLQKDYHDQRUPDOGHYHORSPHQW

([KDOHG 1LWULF R[LGH H12 DQG QLWULWH 12 LQ WKH EUHDWK FRQGHQVDWHV DUH QRQLQYDVLYH PDUNHUV RI DLUZD\ LQIODPPDWLRQ ,Q FKLOGUHQ WKHUH LV OLWWOH HYLGHQFH RI DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKHVH PDUNHUVDQGDLUZD\UHDFWLYLW\ 0HWKRGV:HGHWHUPLQHGEDVHOLQH OXQJ IXQFWLRQ RIIOLQH UHVHUYRLU H12 12 DQG WKH K\SHUWRQLF VDOLQHSURYRFDWLRQGRVHFDXVLQJDIDOOLQ)(93' LQ FKLOGUHQ DJH \UV PDOH 5HVXOWV *HQGHU KHLJKW RU ZHLJKWGLGQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\LQIOXHQFHH12OXQJIXQFWLRQQRU3' ZKLOH 12 KDG D VLJQLILFDQW DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK ZHLJKW U S $ VLJQLILFDQW QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZDV IRXQG EHWZHHQ H12DQG0()U S 3'U S ZKLOHH12ZDVSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHGWR12U S $ VLJQLILFDQW QHJDWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ 3' 12 ZDV DOVR IRXQG DIWHU DFFRXQWLQJ IRU ZHLJKW U S &RQFOXVLRQV%RWKH12DQG12DUHVXLWDEOHIRUHSLGHPLRORJLFDO VWXGLHV:HGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWERWKQRQLQYDVLYHPDUNHUVRIDLUZD\ LQIODPPDWLRQ ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQFUHDVHG UHDFWLYLW\ LQ WKLV SRSXODWLRQ FRQILUPLQJ WKDW WKH 12 SDWKZD\ DV DVVHVVHG E\ ERWK H12 12 LV UHODWHG WR WKH LQIODPPDWRU\ SURFHVVHV LQ DLUZD\ UHDFWLYLW\

)0 78%(5&8/26,6 2873$7,(176

3KDQ+XJ)%HUFOD]-3%UXQ,7KHLQW]* 8QLW RI (QGRFULQRORJ\'LDEHWRORJ\ 'HSW RI 3DHGLDWULFV 8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDO/DXVDQQH6LHUUH%RXGU\

7%

,1

3(',$75,&

$OFRED**HKUL03DUUHW/DXUHQFH=HOOZHJHU-3 +{SLWDOGHO¶(QIDQFH/DXVDQQH6ZLW]HUODQG

,QWURGXFWLRQWRHYDOXDWHWKHULVNRI 7%LQIHFWLRQWKHSDHGLDWULF SRSXODWLRQWHVWHGZLWKWXEHUFXOLQ0DQWRX[7857 0[ LQWKH +{SLWDOGHO¶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

)0 &203/,&$7,216 2) *52:7+ +25021( 7+(5$3<5($6216725(0$,19,*,/$17

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

R13

)0 &21),'(17,$/,7< :+$7 '2 $'2/(6&(176 (;3(&7)520'2&7256" %LFKVHO0(VVOLQJHU$6HQQKDXVHU)5XWLVKDXVHU& 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=XULFK

$LP ([SORUDWLRQ RI H[SHFWDWLRQV DQG H[SHULHQFHV RI 6ZLVV DGROHVFHQWV LQ GRFWRU¶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≤ $FFHSWDQFH RI FRQGLWLRQDO FRQILGHQWLDOLW\ ZDV KLJK LQ DOO VXESRSXODWLRQV DOWKRXJK VRPHZKDW OHVV LQ VXEVWDQFH FRQVXPLQJ DGROHVFHQWVS &RQFOXVLRQ3K\VLFLDQVVKRXOGDGDSWWKHLU FRQVXOWDWLRQ VW\OH WR WKH QHHGV RI DGROHVFHQWV E\ VHHLQJ WKH DGROHVFHQW SDWLHQW DORQH IRU VRPH WLPH DQG E\ DVVXULQJ FRQILGHQWLDOLW\HYHQWRZDUGVSDUHQWV

)0 3(56,67(17 ,1)(&7,21 :,7+ 3$5929,586 % %9 $1' /<03+2%/$67,&/(8.(0,$$//

+80$1 $&87(

)DWWHW6&DVVLQRWWL31HQDGRY%HFN0 3HGLDWULF +DHPDWRORJ\2QFRORJ\ 8QLW 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO /DXVDQQH,QVWLWXWHRI&OLQLFDO0LFURELRORJ\DQG,PPXQRORJ\6W *DOO6ZLW]HUODQG

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¶JURXSV DWULVNWRFRQWUDFW%9LQIHFWLRQ7KHHIILFDF\RILY,*RQ%9 YLUHPLD PHDVXUHG E\ TXDQWLWDWLYH 3&5 LQ EORRG LV XQGHU HYDOXDWLRQ

33 &21*(1,7$/ /$5<1*275$&+(2(623+$*($/ &/()7 %HUJHU70-|KU05XSSHQ:XQG6FKOHJHO& 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3HGLDWULFV .LQGHUVSLWDO /X]HUQ 'HSDUWPHQW RI $QHVWKHVLD DQG 'HSDUWPHQW RI 2WRODU\QJRORJ\ .DQWRQVVSLWDO /X]HUQ6ZLW]HUODQG

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± DV VKRZQ LQ WKLV FDVH ± E\ SRVLWLYH DLUZD\ SUHVVXUH XVLQJ WKH SHUIRUDWHG PDVN DQG D IOH[LEOH EURQFKRVFRSH

33 6.,1 780256 $6 7+( 35(6(17,1* )($785( 2))$7$/6<67(0,&',6($6(,17+(1(:%251 -lJHU*/RVD0*UHLQHU-2HKOVFKOHJHO&K 0LFDOOHI- .LQG&

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

R14

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

XW

)UH\% *KHOIL' %UDHJJHU& 6WDOOPDFK7 6FKXELJHU* 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO =XULFK 'HSDUW RI 3DWKRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\RI=XULFK&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO/XFHUQH 7KH DQWLFRQYXOVDQW FDUEDPD]HSLQH LV NQRZQ WR LQGXFH KHSDWLF GDPDJH $V WKH GUXJ FURVVHV WKH SODFHQWD DQG LV H[FUHWHG LQWR EUHDVW PLON LQIDQWV RI PRWKHUV WDNLQJ FDUEDPD]HSLQH PLJKW DOVR GHYHORSOLYHUG\VIXQFWLRQ :H UHSRUW RQ IXOO\ QXUVHG ER\V ZKR GHYHORSHG WUDQVLHQW FKROHVWDWLF KHSDWLWLV VWDUWLQJ DW ZHHNV RI DJH HOHYDWLRQV RI FRQMXJDWHG ELOLUXELQ γ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¶V GUXJLQIRUPDWLRQVKHHW

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

33 $'9$17$*(6 $1' ',6$79$17$*(6 ',))(5(17&3$36<67(06,11(:2516

2)

9%XHWWLNHU0,+XJ%)UH\&0H\HU2%DHQ]LJHU 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQV+RVSLWDO=XULFK'HSDUWPHQWRI1HRQDWRORJ\ DQG,QWHQVLYH&DUH

$LP RI WKH VWXG\ 5DQGRPL]HG FOLQLFDO VWXG\ WR FRPSDUH WKUHH GLIIHUHQW QDVDO &3$3 V\VWHPV ,QIDQW IORZ +XGVRQ SURQJV DQG D QDVRSKDU\QJHDOWXEH137 IRFXVLQJRQGXUDWLRQRQ&3$3VLGH HIIHFWVDQGFRVWRIWKHV\VWHP 3DWLHQWV%HWZHHQDQGDOOQHZERUQVDGPLWWHGWRRXU ZDUG ZKR QHHGHG &3$3 ZHUH UDQGRPL]HG WR RQH RI WKH WKUHH &3$3 V\VWHPV 7RWDO QHZERUQV ZHUH VWUDWLILHG LQWR WZR GLIIHUHQWZHLJKWJURXSVJ!J 5HVXOWDWH 0HDQ GXUDWLRQ RQ &3$3 LQ QHZERUQV ZHLJKWLQJ JZDVG,QWKHRWKHUJURXSGXUDWLRQRQ&3$3ZDVG

137

,QIDQW)ORZ +XGVRQ

J

Q

Q

7LPHRQ&3$3G

6' 6' 6'

Q

1DVDOLQMXU\PLOG

PRGHUDWH

VHYHUH

Q

Q

!J

Q

7LPHRQ&3$3G

6' 6' 6'

1DVDOLQMXU\PLOG

PRGHUDWH

VHYHUH

&RQFOXVLRQ1RQRIWKH&3$3V\VWHPVLVVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUWKDQ WKH RWKHU 7KH QDVRSKDU\QJHDO WXEH LV DQ HDV\ VDIH DQG HFRQRPLFDO &3$3 V\VWHP XVDEOH ZLWK PRVW RI WKH FRPPRQ YHQWLODWRUV

1 (& G DE Q F 52 HU HE 3 U 8 6

/'

&

3' $ 6H SV LV

33 75(1'6 ,1 0257$/,7< $1' 025%,',7< ,1 9(5< 35(7(50 ,1)$176 ,1 6:,7=(5/$1' )52072

ER UQ + 0 '

33 1(21$7$/ &+2/(67$7,& +(3$7,7,6 $662&,$7(' :,7+ &$5%$0$=(3,1( 7(*5(72/ (;32685( '85,1* 35(*1$1&< $1'%5($67)((',1*

33 9$/8( $1' /,0,7$7,216 2) ',))(5(17 &5,7(5,$ )25 7+( ',$*126,6 2) ,1)(&7,9( (1'2&$5',7,6,( ,1&+,/'5(1 7LVVLqUHV3*HUYDL[$%HJKHWWL0-DHJJL( 3HGLDWULF &DUGLRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG

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³UHMHFWHG´E\95 EXW ZDV ³GHILQLWH RU SRVVLEOH´ E\ '& DQG 0' ,Q FDVHV WKH GLDJQRVLV RI ,( ZDV ³SRVVLEOH´ E\ '& EXW ³GHILQLWH´ E\ 0' KDGPDMRUDQG!PLQRUV\PSWRPVDQGKDG4IHYHU &RQFOXVLRQ 0' KDV D KLJKHU VHQVLWLYLW\ WKDQ 95 DQG '& IRU GLDJQRVLQJ,(LQFKLOGUHQ+RZHYHUVWLOOUHPDLQHGFODVVLILHG DV³SRVVLEOH´,(LQRXUVHULHV

R15

33 ,1)(&7,9((1'2&$5',7,6,( ,1,1)$176$1' &+,/'5(1'85,1*7+(3$67<($56 7LVVLqUHV3*HUYDL[$%HJKHWWL0-DHJJL( 3HGLDWULF &DUGLRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQG

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± +$&(.4)HYHU %ORRGFXOWXUH 7RWDO

1XPEHURI,( LQFDVHV

6XUYLYDO

33 %/22' 0$5.(56 2) 6(9(5( %$&7(5,$/ ,1)(&7,21

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

3&7 QJPO &53 JPO ,/ SJPO :KLWHEORRGFHOOV %DQG

VHQVLWLYLW\

VSHFLILFLW\

139

339

&RQFOXVLRQV &RPSDUHG WR SUHYLRXVO\ SXEOLVKHG VWXGLHV RQ ,( LQ FKLOGUHQDOO WKHVSHFWUXPRIRUJDQLVPVKDVFOHDUO\VKLIWHG WRZDUGV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU RI IXQJDO LQIHFWLRQV ZLWK D SRRUHU RXWFRPH ,PSRUWDQWO\ IXQJDO LQIHFWLRQV FDXVHG RI WKH HDUO\ SRVWRSHUDWLYH,(LQRXUVHULHV

FXWRII39SUHGLFWLYHYDOXH1QHJDWLYH3SRVLWLYH

33 675(372&2&&8631(8021,$( (3,'(0,2/2*<2),19$6,9(,1)(&7,21,1 *(1(9$

33 (&+,12&2&&$/ &<67 $ 5$5( &$86( 2) $%'20,1$/3$,1

63LQ|VFK 35RKQHU $*HUYDL[ +{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

%DFWHUHPLD 3QHXPRQLD 0HQLQJLWLV 2WKHUV

1ERIFDVHV

$JHPHDQPHG PRQWK

'D\VRIKRVS PHDQ

'LVFXVVLRQ ,QYDVLYH LQIHFWLRQ GXH WR 6SQHXPR RFFXUV PDLQO\ DPRQJ FKLOGUHQ \ RI DJH 7KH LQFLGHQFH RI GLVHDVHLVFRPSDUDEOHWRWKDWRI+LQIOXHQ]DHW\SHEEHIRUH WKH YDFFLQDWLRQ HUD EXW ZLWK KLJKHU PRUWDOLW\ DQG VHTXHOODU PRUELGLW\ $FWXDOO\ D FRQMXJDWH YDFFLQH HIIHFWLYH LQ FKLOGUHQ\DIDJHLVDYDLODEOHDQGFRYHUVRIVWUDLQV LQYROYHG LQ LQYDVLYH LQIHFWLRQ LQ 6ZLW]HUODQG %DVHG RQ WKHVH GDWD D FRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV VWXG\ RI ODUJH VFDOH YDFFLQDWLRQLVRQJRLQJ

&RQFOXVLRQ3&7GLVSOD\HGWKHEHVWVHQVLWLYLW\IRUWKHGHWHFWLRQRI FKLOGUHQ ZLWK 6%, ZLWK D VOLJKWO\ LQIHULRU VSHFLILFLW\ WKDQ &53 7KRVH PDUNHUV IRU ZKLFK WKH UHVXOW LV REWDLQHG LQ D GHOD\ FRPSDWLEOHZLWKDPHGLFDOYLVLWVKRXOGEHXVHGLQWKHPDQDJHPHQW RI IHEULOH FKLOGUHQ ZLWKRXW D VRXUFH LQVWHDG RI :%& DQG GLIIHUHQWLDO

1LHGHUPDQQ ) /HXWKDUGW 5 5RGXLW & 5DPHOOL *3 0OOHU &( 6HUYL]LR GL &KLUXUJLD 3HGLDWULFD GHO &DQWRQH 7LFLQR H 5HSDUWR GL 3HGLDWULD2VSHGDOH5HJLRQDOH%HOOLQ]RQDH9DOOL

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

R16

33 )(9(5 $1' 3$5$&(7$02/ 7+(25< $1' 35$&7,&(,13$(',$75,&2873$7,(176

( *XLJQDUG - 4XLOOHW 6 5DGML &
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

33 /$0,98',1( 7+(5$3< )25 $1 ,1)$17 :,7+ +(3$7,7,6%)8/0,1$17+(3$7,&)$,/85(

/DXEVFKHU % %DUW 3$ *HKUL 0 0D\HUDW & 3DQWDOHR * 5RXOHW0 6HUYLFHGHSpGLDWULH 'LYLVLRQVSpFLDOLVpHG¶LPPXQRDOOHUJRORJLH &+89&+±/DXVDQQH +HSDWLWLV%+% YLUXVFDQOHDGWRIXOPLQDQWKHSDWLFIDLOXUH)+) ,QIDQWV ZKR DFTXLUH WKH YLUXV IURP DQWL+EH$J ⊕ PRWKHUV DW WKH WLPH RI ELUWK DUH DW ULVN WR GHYHORS OHWKDO )+) /DPLYXGLQH LV D SRWHQW +% YLUXV LQKLELWRU :H UHSRUW WKH FDVH RI DQ LQIDQW ZKR VXUYLYHGDIWHUODPLYXGLQHWUHDWPHQWIRU+%)+) $ SUHYLRXVO\ KHDOWK\ PRQWKV ROGER\ GHYHORSSHG DQ DFXWH +% ZKLFKKHPRVWSUREDEO\KDGDFTXLUHGIURPKLV+%V$J⊕+%H$J− DQWL+%H$J⊕ PRWKHU 2Q GLVHDVH GD\ '' KH VKRZHG VOLJKW VLJQV RI HQFHSKDORSDWK\ , DQG D VHYHUH )+) ,15! ELOLUXELQH!µ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

33 75(1'6 ,1 $17,%,27,& 5(6,67$1&( 5(63,5$725< 75$&7 3$7+2*(16 &+,/'5(1 -DHFNOLQ75RKQHU36FKPLGKHLQ\.*HUYDL[$ 'pSDUWHPHQW GH 3pGLDWULH /&% +8* 9RONVZLUWVFKDIWOLFKHV,QVWLWXW8QLYHUVLW\RI%HUQ

2) ,1

*HQHYD

,QWURGXFWLRQ7KHLQFUHDVHRIUHVLVWDQWEDFWHULDWRDQWLELRWLFV$% LVDPDMRUFRQFHUQIRUSUDFWLWLRQHUV$LP7RDVVHVVWKHUHVLVWDQFH RI 6 SQHXPRQLDH + LQIOXHQ]DH DQG 0 FDWDUUKDOLV WR PXOWLSOH FODVVHV RI $% LQ FKLOGUHQ \HDUV 0HWKRGV 5HWURVSHFWLYH VWXG\RIWKHVXVFHSWLELOLW\GLVNGLIIXVLRQDQG(WHVW RIUHVSLUDWRU\ WUDFWSDWKRJHQVLVRODWHGDWWKH*HQHYDFKLOGUHQ¶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

33 5(/,$%,/,7< 2) +,6725< 2) 9$5,&(//$ =267(59,5869=9 ,1)(&7,21 %RQKRHIIHU-%DHU*6FKDDG8%+HLQLQJHU8 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶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µGHILQLWH¶ µSUREDEOH¶µSRVVLEOH¶µQR¶RUµXQNQRZQ¶ 7KHQDEZHUHWHVWHGE\ (/,6$ (Q]\JQRVW DQG FRQILUPHG E\ )$0$ LQ D VXEVHW 5HVXOWV FKLOGUHQ PHDQ DJH \UV PHGLDQ ZHUH HQUROOHG +LVWRU\ RI FKLFNHQSR[ ZDV µGHILQLWH¶ LQ µSUREDEOH¶LQ µSRVVLEOH¶LQµQHJDWLYH¶LQ DQG XQNQRZQLQ RIWKHP2YHUDOO&, ZHUH SRVLWLYHIRU9=9DE6HURSUHYDOHQFHZDVDQGLQ \UROGVJURXSQ \UROGVJUQ DQG\U ROGV JU Q UHVS 7KH SRVLWLYH SUHGLFWLYH YDOXH SSY RI D µGHILQLWH¶ KLVWRU\ RI FKLFNHQSR[ ZDV DQGLQJURXSVDQGUHVS 7KHQHJDWLYHSUHGLFWLYHYDOXH ZDV GHFUHDVLQJ E\ DJH JU JU JU &RQFOXVLRQV ,PPXQL]DWLRQ DJDLQVW 9=9 LV QRW JHQHUDOO\ UHFRPPHQGHG LQ 6ZLW]HUODQG DQG VHURSUHYDOHQFH RI DQWL9=9 DE LQ DGROHVFHQWV LV KLJK +HUH ZH GHPRQVWUDWH D KLJK SSY RI 9=9 KLVWRU\ :H SURSRVH WKDW D VHOHFWLYH LPPXQL]DWLRQ VWUDWHJ\ LH LPPXQL]LQJ DGROHVFHQWV DQ DJH JURXS ZKHUH FRPSOLFDWLRQV RI QDWXUDO LQIHFWLRQ LQFUHDVHV ZLWK D QHJDWLYH KLVWRU\ ZRXOG EH HIIHFWLYHDQGIHDVLEOHLQ6ZLW]HUODQG

R17

33 )$7$/ 6(36,6 6<1'520(

&203/,&$7,1*

&5283

%ROW,%DFKPDQQ'&*6FKLEOHU$:DJQHU%3 3HGLDWULF,QWHQVLYH&DUH'HSWRI3HGLDWULFV%HUQH6ZLW]HUODQG

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

33 85,1$5< 75$&7 ,1)(&7,216 &$86(' %< (17(52&2&&,±$0,66('',$*126,6

'%OLFNHQVWRUIHU-*XEOHU8%KOPDQQ3K*RHWVFKHO .OLQLN IU .LQGHU XQG -XJHQGOLFKH XQG 0HGL]LQLVFKH .OLQLN 6WDGWVSLWDO7ULHPOL=ULFK 0RWLYDWLRQ8ULQDU\WUDFWLQIHFWLRQV87, FDXVHGE\(QWHURFRFFXV VS ( DUH RIWHQ RYHUORRNHG LQ GLDJQRVWLF DQG WKHUDSHXWLF URXWLQH SURFHGXUHVRI87,DUHFDXVHGE\(DQGDSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQ ZLWKXQGHUO\LQJXURORJLFDODEQRUPDOLWLHVLVIRXQGLQRYHU &DVHGHVFULSWLRQ 3DWLHQW 0DLQV\PSWRP 8ULQHVHGLPHQWOFKSI QLWULWHWHVW (IDHFDOLVPO %ORRG&53PJO FXOWXUH 8QGHUO\LQJGLVHDVH

ƃ- IHYHUR QHJ SRV 389

ƃ- IHYHUR QHJ QHJ 320EO

ƃ- DEGRPLQDOSDLQ QHJ QHJ 985,EO

389SRVWHULRUXUHWKUDOYDOYHV985YHVLFRXUHWHUDOUHIOX[ 320SULPDU\REVWUXFWLYHPHJDXUHWHUEOELODWHUDO &RQFOXVLRQV ,Q SDWLHQWV SUHVHQWLQJ ZLWK IHYHU ± HVSHFLDOO\ LI XURORJLFDEQRUPDOLWLHVDUHSUHVHQW±DQ87,FDXVHGE\(PXVWEH UXOHG RXW E\ XULQH FXOWXUH ,Q LQIHFWLRQV ZLWK ( WKH QLWULWH WHVW LV QHJDWLYH DQG DEVHQFH RI OHXFRF\WXULD LV QRW XQFRPPRQ $Q DFFXUDWH HPSLULF WKHUDS\ DPLQRSHQLFLOOLQ FHIWULD[RQH RU DPLQRSHQLFLOOLQDPLQRJO\FRVLGH LQVXFKFDVHVLVPDQGDWRU\

33 %25'(7(//$ 3(57866,6 ,1 $ 5()8*(( &(17(5 5,6. 2) '(/$<(' ,1)$176 9$&&,1$7,21 $'LDQD%1LQHW35RKQHU&$6LHJULVW$*HUYDL[ &KLOGUHQV +RVSLWDO ,QIHFWLRXV 'HVHDVH 'HSDUWPHQW +8* *HQHYD6ZLW]HUODQG

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

33 )(9(5 ,1 ,0081268335(66(' &+,/'5(1 :,7+&$1&(5 6FKHLQHPDQQ.$QJVW5,PEDFK3*QHKP+S( &KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO.DQWRQVVSLWDO$DUDX

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j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

R18

33 ,0081,=$7,216 2) 35(7(50 )5(48(17/<72208&+'(/$<('

,1)$176

1LNVLF93ILVWHU50DUWLQ%&%HUQHU06LHJULVW&$ 'HSDUWPHQWRI3HGLDWULFVDQG©6HUYLFHGXPpGHFLQFDQWRQDOª DQGSULPDU\FDUHSHGLDWULFLDQVIURPWKH*HQHYDGLVWULFW

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

33 3+
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

33 :,'(635($' ,1)(&7,21 :,7+ 02//86&$ &217$*,26$ 0& $)7(5 5(1$/ 75$163/$17$7,21

33 1(21$7$/ +($/7+&$5( :25.(56¶ 3(5&(37,2172:$5'6+$1'+<*,(1(

*6SDUWj0-.HPSHU7-1HXKDXV 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=ULFK6ZLW]HUODQG

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µPROO 7KUHH \HDUV DIWHU UHQDO WUDQVSODQWDWLRQ D IHZ 0& OHVLRQV GHYHORSHG RQ WKH WUXQN :LWKLQ D IHZ ZHHNV WKH 0& OHVLRQV VSUHDG RXW GUDPDWLFDOO\ RYHU WKH ZKROH ERG\ ,QWHQVLYH ORFDO WUHDWPHQW VXFK DV FU\RWKHUDS\ DQG WRSLFDO VLOYHU QLWUDWH DSSOLFDWLRQV IDLOHG 5HGXFWLRQ RI WDFUROLPXV GRVDJH DLPLQJ DW WURXJK OHYHOV RI µ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

&/ 3HVVRD6LOYD 6 +XJRQQHW 79 3HUQHJHU . 3RVID\ 5 3ILVWHU67RXYHQHDXDQG'3LWWHW 8QLYHUVLW\RI*HQHYD+RVSLWDOV*HQHYD6ZLW]HUODQG

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

R19

33 '<1$0,&6 2) %$&7(5,$/ +$1' &217$0,1$7,21 '85,1*5287,1(1(21$7$/ &$5( &/3HVVRD6LOYD6'DKUDQ6+XJRQQHW.3RVID\53ILVWHU 67RXYHQHDXDQG'3LWWHW8QLYHUVLW\RI*HQHYD+RVSLWDOV

%DFNJURXQG &RPSOLDQFH ZLWK KDQG K\JLHQH ++ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV PD\ EH SDUWLFXODUO\ GLIILFXOW WR DFKLHYH ZKHQ FDULQJ IRU QHRQDWHV &XUUHQW JXLGHOLQHV VXJJHVW D UDQNLQJ RI SDWLHQWFDUHDFWLYLWLHVWKDWDUHOLNHO\WRFDXVHKDQGFRQWDPLQDWLRQDV DWRROWRGHILQHLQGLFDWLRQVIRU+++RZHYHUVXFKUDQNLQJV\VWHPV ODFN VFLHQWLILF YDOLGDWLRQ :H HYDOXDWHG WKH G\QDPLFV RI EDFWHULDO FRQWDPLQDWLRQRIKHDOWKFDUHZRUNHUV¶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¶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

33 (03,5,&$/ 0(523(1(0 7+(5$3< )25 )(%5,/( 1(87523(1,$ ,1 &$1&(5 &+,/'5(1 6(/'20/< $))25'6 $'',7,21 2) $ */<&23(37,'( %HUJHU&.LQGOL.1LJJOL)1DGDO' 'LYLVLRQV RI ,QIHFWLRXV 'LVHDVHV DQG 2QFRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=ULFK

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

33 )$,/85( 72 '(7(&7 1(,66(5,$ 0(1,1*,7,',6 *52836%$1'&,17216,/686,1*5($/7,0( 32/<0(5$6(&+$,15($&7,213&5 *UHLQHU 2 %HUJHU & 'D\ 3-5 0HLHU * 1DGDO ' 'LYLVLRQVRI,QIHFWLRXV'LVHDVHV8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDORI =XULFK=XULFK6ZLW]HUODQG

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

33 ,1786686&(37,21 ,1'8&(' %< &20%,1(' 527$ $1' $'(12 9,5$/ ,1)(&7,21 68&&(66)8//<75($7(':,7+$,5,1)/$7,21 (OOHQ+DG]LVHOLPRYLF )DUXN+DG]LVHOLPRYLF .LQGHUWDJHVNOLQLN2ULVWDOVWUDVVHD/LHVWDO

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

R20

33 $&87( ,175$&5$1,$/ +(0255$*( $6 ),567 6,*12)$1$1$3/$67,&(3(1'<020$

*XJJHQKHLP 5 :DOGYRJHO . 6FKQHLGHU - .|Q '/ *URW]HU0$ 7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQµV +RVSLWDO RI =XULFK 'HSDUWPHQW RI 1HXURVXUJHU\8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDORI=XULFK

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¶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

33 &21&20,7$17 ,1)(&7,21 :,7+ (367(,1 %$55 9,586 (%9 $1' 3$5929,586 % %9 0,0,&.,1*0$/,*1$17/<03+20$

1HQDGRY%HFN0)DWWHW6&DVVLQRWWL3%DXU$ 3HGLDWULF +HPDWRORJ\2QFRORJ\ 8QLW 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO &+ /DXVDQQH ,QVWLWXWHIRU&OLQLFDO0LFURELRORJ\DQG,PPXQRORJ\ &+6W*DOOHQ ,QVWLWXWH IRU 3DWKRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO &+ /DXVDQQH

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

33 1(852%/$6720$:,7+5(6,'8$/',6($6( ())(&721/21*7(50287&20( %HUJVWUlVVHU(:LOOL86DXUHQPDQQ71LJJOL) 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=ULFK

1HXUREODVWRPDV KDYH D YDULHW\ RI FOLQLFDO EHKDYLRXUV ZLWK D VSHFWUXP RI RXWFRPH UDQJLQJ IURP VSRQWDQHRXV UHJUHVVLRQ WR SURJUHVVLRQ DQG HDUO\ PHWDVWDVLV LQ VSLWH RI YHU\ LQWHQVLYH WUHDW PHQW &RPSOHWH UHPRYDO RI DOO WXPRXU FDQ RIWHQ QRW EH DFKLHYHG GXHWRWXPRXUVL]HDQGORFDOLVDWLRQ+RZHYHUHYHQZLWKVLJQLILFDQW UHVLGXDO WXPRXU DIWHU WKH HQG RI WUHDWPHQW ORQJ WHUP VXUYLYDO KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG ,Q D UHWURVSHFWLYH VWXG\ ZH KDYH HYDOXDWHG WKH FRXUVHRIGLVHDVHLQFKLOGUHQZLWKUHVLGXDOWXPRXU $W WKH &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO RI =XULFK FKLOGUHQ KDYH EHHQ GLDJQRVHG ZLWK QHXUREODVWRPD EHWZHHQ ±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

33 6,186+,67,2&<726,6 %(1,*1',6($6("

526$,'25)0$1

$

.URLVV%HQQLQJHU66FKOHJHO&K&DIOLVFK8 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3DHGLDWULFV &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO RI /X]HUQ 6ZLW]HUODQG (17'HSDUWPHQW&DQWRQDO+RVSLWDORI/X]HUQ6ZLW]HUODQG

,QWURGXFWLRQ 6LQXVKLVWLRF\WRVLV ZLWK PDVVLYH /\PSKDGHQRSDWK\ 6+0/ 5RVDL'RUIPDQ GLVHDVH LV D UDUH GLVRUGHU RI XQNQRZQ RULJLQ,WRFFXUVLQWKHILUVWGHFDGHVRIOLIHDQGRISDWLHQWV SUHVHQW ZLWK SDLQOHVV FHUYLFDO O\PSKDGHQRSDWK\ ([WUDQRGDO VLWHV KHDG QHFN VNLQ EUHDVW DUH LQYROYHG LQ RI FDVHV ,W LV WKRXJKWWREHDUHDFWLYHUDWKHUWKDQDQHRSODVWLFGLVRUGHU &DVH$WWKHWLPHRIGLDJQRVLVRI6+0/WKLVô\HDUROGER\ SUHVHQWHGZLWKVZDOORZLQJGLIILFXOWLHVDQGZHLJKWORVV+HKDGKDG DKLVWRU\RIUHSHWLWLYHDQWLELRWLFWUHDWPHQWVIRUSURJUHVVLYHELODWHUDO O\PSKDGHQRSDWK\IROORZLQJDQHSLVRGHRIWRQVLOOLWLV$IWHUSULPDU\ GLDJQRVWLFUHVHFWLRQRIWKHO\PSKQRGHPDVVHVKHKDGWRXQGHUJRD VHFRQG GHEXONLQJ RSHUDWLRQ PRQWKV ODWHU EHFDXVH RI XSSHU DLUZD\REVWUXFWLRQ)ROORZLQJVHYHUDOPLQRUUHODSVHVRYHUWKHQH[W PRQWKVVSRQWDQHRXVUHPLVVLRQRI6+0/RFFXUUHG &DVH 7KLV ô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

R21

33 &<67,& '<63/$6,$ 2) 7+( 7(67,6 $ %(1,*1 &21*(1,7$/ /(6,21 $662&,$7(' :,7+ ,36,/$7(5$/852/2*,&$/$120$/,(6

33 6<67(0,& ,1)/$00$725< 5(63216( 6<1'520(6,56 $)7(5$*$6752,17(67,1$/ <(56,1,26,6

)6FKQHLGHU7-1HXKDXV+%DDOV3K*RHWVFKHO .OLQLNIU.LQGHUXQG-XJHQGOLFKH6WDGWVSLWDO7ULHPOL=ULFK 0HGL]LQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWl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

33 /$1*(5+$16 &(// +,67,2&<726,6 ± 7:2 &+,/'5(1 :,7+ $7<3,&$/ &(5(%5$/ 0$1,)(67$7,21 6LGOHU0$YROHGR3/WVFKJ-0HUOR$.KQH7 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO %DVHO 'LY RI 2QFRORJ\+HPDWRORJ\ 'LY RI 1HXURSHGLDWULFV 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO%DVHO'LYRI1HXURVXUJHU\6ZLW]HUODQG

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

2$GDP6:HJQHU-*XEOHU3K*RHWVFKHO .OLQLNIU.LQGHUXQG-XJHQGOLFKHXQG0HGL]LQLVFKH.OLQLN 6WDGWVSLWDO7ULHPOL=ULFK

0RWLYDWLRQ &ODVVLFDO LQIHFWLRQV E\
33 $&87(+$(0255+$*,&2('(0$2)7+(6.,1 ,1,1)$1&<$7<3,&(92/87,21 33HUUHW*35DPHOOL&0DLQHWWL 'LYLVLRQRI3HGLDWULFVDQG'HUPDWRORJ\25%9%HOOLQ]RQD

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

R22

33 86( 2) $17,71) 35(3$5$7,216 ,1 &+,/'5(1 :,7+ -89(1,/( ,',23$7+,& $57+5,7,6 ,1 6:,7=(5/$1' &OpPHQW)6DXUHQPDQQ76DXYDLQ0-%HUWKHW*+RIHU0 &RQVXOWDWLRQ 0XOWLVLWH 5RPDQGH GH 5KXPDWRORJLH 3pGLDWULTXH &+89 /DXVDQQH HW +8* *HQqYH 5KXPDWRORJLH 3pGLDWULTXH .LQGHUVSLWDO=ULFK 5KXPDWRORJLH3pGLDWULTXH,QVHOVSLWDO%HUQ .LQGHUNOLQLN.DQWRQVSLWDO$DUDX

7KH DLP RI WKH VWXG\ ZDV WR HYDOXDWH WKH XVH RI QHZ GUXJV DQWL 71)SUHSDUDWLRQVHWDQHUFHSWRULQIOH[LPDE LQSDWLHQWVWUHDWHGIRU -XYHQLOH,GLRSDWKLF$UWKULWLV-,$ LQ6ZLW]HUODQG GLIIHUHQW FHQWUHV =ULFK *HQqYH/DXVDQQH %HUQ DQG $DUDX UHSRUWHG WHQ SDWLHQWV IHPDOHV DQG PDOHV EHWZHHQ DQG \HDUV PHDQ \HDUV $OO SDWLHQWV ZHUH GLDJQRVHG DV -,$ V\VWHPLF H[WHQGHG ROLJDUWKULWLV UKHXPDWRLG IDFWRU SRO\DUWKULWLVDQGHQWKHVLWLVUHODWHGDUWKULWLV $WDQWL71)WKHUDS\ RQVHW OHQJWK RI GLVHDVH ZDV EHWZHHQ DQG \HDUV PHDQ \HDUV DQG DOO SDWLHQWV KDYH EHHQ WUHDWHG ZLWK PHWKRWUH[DWH ZLWK VWHURLGV ZLWK DQRWKHU '0$5' 6L[ SDWLHQWV UHFHLYHG HWDQHUFHSWPJNJWZLFHDZHHN DQGSDWLHQWVLQIOH[LPDE PJNJ ZHHNV ,Q DOO SDWLHQWV GLVHDVH VHYHULW\ ZDV LPSURYHGE\WKHWUHDWPHQWEXWLQFDVHVHWDQHUFHSWZDVFKDQJHG WR LQIOH[LPDE EHFDXVH RI D UHODSVH XQGHU WUHDWPHQW $QWL71) SUHSDUDWLRQV ZHUH ZHOO WROHUDWHG EXW SDWLHQW SUHVHQWHG DQ DQDSK\ODFWRwG UHDFWLRQ DQG SDWLHQW D YDULFHOOD ]RVWHU LQIHFWLRQ GXULQJWKHUDS\ ,QFRQFOXVLRQDQWL71)SUHSDUDWLRQVDUHLQGLFDWHGLQFKLOGUHQZLWK SRO\DUWKULWLV DV VHFRQG OLQH WKHUDS\ DIWHU IDLOXUH RI FRQYHQWLRQDO WUHDWPHQWV 7KLV WUHDWPHQW LV HIILFDFLRXV DQG LQ JHQHUDO ZHOO WROHUDWHG EXW WKH LQGLFDWLRQ VKRXOG EH VHW ZLWK WKH KHOS RI D VSHFLDOLVW DQG WKH IROORZXS GRQH E\ FROODERUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH SHGLDWULFLDQDQGWKHSHGLDWULFUKHXPDWRORJLVW

33 %521&+,2/,7,6 2%/,7(5$16 0<&23/$60$31(8021,$

)2//2:,1*

*HEDXHU080HLHU3:(QJ3$ 3DHGLDWULF&OLQLF&KLOGUHQ V+RVSLWDO/XFHUQH6ZLW]HUODQG

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

33 2;<*(12 &21&(175$7256 $335235,$7( 7(&+12/2*< )25 &+,/'5(1 :,7+ 6(9(5( 31(8021,$,1'(9(/23,1*&28175,(6 3HUUHOHW$=HOOZHJHU-30ED\H$*DXWLHU(*HKUL0 +{SLWDOGHO¶(QIDQFHGH/DXVDQQH+{SLWDOGH1GLRXP6pQpJDO

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¶V HDV\ WR SURYLGH EDVLF WHFKQRORJ\QRPDFKLQHEUHDNGRZQ1HJDWLYH¶VVHYHUDOHOHFWULFLW\ FXWRIIV XVH RI F\OLQGHUV &RVWV YLD F\OLQGHUV IRU WKH HQWLUH FRKRUW DQG H[WUDSRODWLRQ \HDU &RQFHQWUDWRU FRVWV DQGVWLOOZRUNV\HDUVODWHU &RQFOXVLRQV&RQFHQWUDWRUVDUHHIIHFWLYHDQGIHDVLEOHPHDQVRI VXSSO\LQJ R[\JHQ WKH\ FDQ VDYH PRQH\DQG WKHLU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ PXVW EH HQFRXUDJHG 7KH :+2 R[\JHQDWLRQ FULWHULD ZKLFK FRPELQH DYDLODEOH 2 TXDQWLW\ DQG VHYHULW\ RI GLVHDVHFRVW YV WKHUDSHXWLFEHQHILW DUHUHOHYDQWIRUFKLOGUHQZLWKSQHXPRQLDOHVV IRUSDWLHQWVZLWKDVHYHUHXQGHUO\LQJGLVHDVH

33 (9$/8$7,21 2) 48$/,7< 2) /,)( ,1 $'2/(6&(176 :,7+ $67+0$ :,7+ 7+( $$42/' 6RPHUYLOOH$.Q|SIOL%5XWLVKDXVHU& $OSLQH&KLOGUHQ V+RVSLWDO'DYRV 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ V+RVSLWDO=XULFK

2EMHFWLYH 7KH $GROHVFHQW $VWKPD 4XDOLW\ RI /LIH 4XHVWLRQQDLUH $$42/ LV WKH RQO\ DVWKPDVSHFLILF TXDOLW\ RI OLIH TXHVWLRQQDLUH IRU XVH VSHFLILFDOO\ LQ DGROHVFHQWV 7KH DLP RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WKH WUDQVODWLRQ RI WKH RULJLQDO (QJOLVK YHUVLRQ LQWR *HUPDQ DV ZHOO DV WKHUHYDOLGDWLRQRIWKH*HUPDQYHUVLRQ$$42/' 0HWKRGV DGROHVFHQWV ZLWK IUHTXHQWHSLVRGLF RU SHUVLVWHQW DVWKPD DJHG \HDUVZHUHUHFUXLWHG7KHVWDQGDUGLVHGPHWKRGFRQVLVWHGRI WUDQVODWLRQ RI WKH $$42/ DGGLWLRQDO LWHP VHOHFWLRQ YLD VHPLVWUXFWXUHG LQWHUYLHZV Q LWHP UHGXFWLRQ XQG UHYDOLGDWLRQ Q 7KH LWHP UHGXFWLRQ ZDV SHUIRUPHG DSSO\LQJ WKH FOLQLFDO LPSDFW PHWKRG 5HVXOWV 7KH VDPH LWHPV ZHUH LGHQWLILHGDVUHOHYDQWIRUWKH$$42/'DVLQWKHRULJLQDOYHUVLRQ $$42/ ,QWHUQDO FRQVLVWHQF\ IRU WKH GLPHQVLRQV V\PSWRPV PHGLFDWLRQSK\VLFDODFWLYLW\HPRWLRQVVRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQSRVLWLYH HIIHFWV ZDV KLJK α DV ZHOO DV IRU WKH WRWDO VFRUH α 'HVSLWH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI DGROHVFHQWUHOHYDQW SV\FKRVRFLDO DVSHFWV KLJK FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK WKH 3HGLDWULF $VWKPD 4XDOLW\RI/LIH4XHVWLRQQDLUH*HUPDQ9HUVLRQ ZDVFRQILUPHGIRU WKH $$42/' UKR S &RUUHODWLRQ ZLWK D KHDOWK WKHUPRPHWHU FRQVLVWHG LQ UKR S 7KHUH ZDV PRGHUDWH FRUUHODWLRQ ZLWK FOLQLFDO SDUDPHWHUV RI DVWKPD VHYHULW\ UKR S≤ QRW KRZHYHU ZLWK IUHTXHQF\ RI PHGLFDWLRQ UKR S &RQFOXVLRQ 7KH $$42/' LV D YDOLGPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOLQVWUXPHQWLQ*HUPDQIRUDVVHVVLQJKHDOWK UHODWHGTXDOLW\RIOLIHRIDGROHVFHQWVZLWKDVWKPD

R23

33 (&+2*5$3+< 2) 7+( +,36 25 7+( .,'1(<6 $7 21( 0217+ 2) /,)( :+,&+ ,6 0267 -867,),$%/("

&/RIWKRXVH0-HDQQHUHW%/DXEVFKHU 6HUYLFHGHSpGLDWULHHWUDGLRORJLH+{SLWDO3RXUWDOqV&+ 1HXFKkWHO

33 &/,1,&$/ 35(6(17$7,21 ',$*1267,& )($785(6 0$1$*(0(17 $1' 287&20( 2) 9$6&8/$55,1*6 .LHV6%HJKHWWL0.DODQJRV$ -DHJJL( 3HGLDWULF&DUGLRORJ\ &DUGLRYDVFXODU6XUJHU\ +8**HQHYD

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

33 8/75$6281'6&5((1,1*)25+,3'<63/$6,$6 ,17+(1(21$7(678'<217+()/225

33 2&8/$5 38/6$7,21 $1 81868$/ 35(6(17$ 7,212)1(852),%520$726,67<3(

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

&/RIWKRXVH0-HDQQHUHW$&RUER]%/DXEVFKHU 6HUYLFH GH SpGLDWULH HW UDGLRORJLH +{SLWDO 3RXUWDOqV &+ 1HXFKkWHO 6HUYLFHGHSpGLDWULH+{SLWDO&RPPXQDO&+/D &KDX[GH)RQGV

,Q 6ZLW]HUODQG VLQFH XOWUDVRXQG VFUHHQLQJ IRU 'HYHORSPHQWDO '\VSODVLD RI WKH +LS ''+ KDV EHHQ UHLPEXUVHG E\ PHGLFDO LQVXUHUV ,QLWLDOO\ IXQGHG IRU \HDUV WKH VHUYLFH KDV EHHQ WHPSRUDULO\ UHQHZHG E\ WKH )HGHUDO &RPPLVVLRQ IRU WKH 6HUYLFHV RI 6LFNQHVV ,QVXUDQFH&)3 DZDLWLQJ DQ HYDOXDWLRQ RI QHZVFLHQWLILFGDWD7KH QDWXUH RI WKLV QHZ GDWD GRHV QRW VHHP WR EH KDYH EHHQ GHILQHG FOHDUO\1HXFKDWHO¶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

*E *D

*D

*

'HSHQGLQJRQWKHUDGLRORJLVWWKHLQFLGHQFHRIKLSW\SHDHWD YDULHGEHWZHHQDQGPHGLDQ &RQFOXVLRQ 2XU DQDO\VLV SHUPLWV EHWWHU DVVHVVPHQW RI FXUUHQW SUDFWLFHRIVFUHHQLQJRI''+LQ6ZLW]HUODQG

*3 5DPHOOL ' %RVFKHULQL & 0OOHU 0 :\WWHQEDFK - 5LOOLHW 'LYLVLRQ RI 3HGLDWULFV 6XUJHU\ DQG 1HXURVXUJHU\ 'LYLVLRQ RI 5DGLRORJ\ 25%9 %HOOLQ]RQD 3HGLDWULFLDQ 'LYLVLRQ RI 1HXURVXUJHU\8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO*HQHYH

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pDXODLW SDWFKHV ZHUH GHWHFWHG DW LQVSHFWLRQ 0DJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH LPDJLQJ VFDQV VKRZHG DEVHQFH RI WKH JUHDWHU ZLQJ RI WKH VSKHQRLG ERQH DQRFLDWHG WR D PHQLQJRFHOH ZLWK LQWUDRUELWDO H[WHQWLRQ ZKLOH QHLWKHU RSWLF JOLRPDV QRU RWKHU LQWUDFUDQLDO OHVLRQV ZHUH GHWHFWHG 7KHSDWLHQWXQGHUZHQWVXUJLFDOLQWHUYHQWLRQZLWKFRUUHFWLYHLQWHQW %LRSVLHV ZHUH REWDLQHG DQG KLVWRORJLFDO H[DPLQDWLRQ UHYHDOHG WKH SUHVHQFHRIQHXURILEURPDWRVLVW\SHWLVVXH &RQFOXVLRQV 3XOVDWLQJ H[RSKWDOPRV LV D GHVFULEHG PDQLIHVWDWLRQ RI VKHQRLG DEQRUPDOLWLHV LQ SDWLHQW ZLWK 1) ([RSKWDOPRV PD\ EHWKHILUVW PDQLIHVWDWLRQRIWKH GLVHDVHRFFXUULQJEHIRUHDOORWKHU VLJQVDUHHYLGHQW 7KH WKHUDSHXWLF DSSURDFK LV XVXDOO\ QHXURVXUJLFDO EHFDXVH GLVSODFHPHQW RI DQWHULRU WHPSRUDO OREHRU SURODSV RI WKH GXUD FDQ EHDVVRFLDWHG

R24

33 7:23$7,(176:,7+&(5(%5$/9(12866,186 7+520%26,6 %HUQDVFRQL $ 'LDQD $ 'HODYHOOH - 3DUYH[ 3 *LUDUGLQ ( +RIHU 0+DHQJJHOL&K$ &KLOGUHQV +RVSLWDO+8**HQHYD6ZLW]HUODQG

,QWURGXFWLRQ &HUHEUDO YHQRXV VLQXV WKURPERVLV &967 LV D UDUH FDXVH RI LQFUHDVHG LQWUDFUDQLDO SUHVVXUH ,&3 UHTXLULQJ SURPSW FOLQLFDODQGHWLRORJLFDOGLDJQRVLVDQGDQWLFRDJXODQWPHGLFDWLRQLQ RUGHUWRSUHYHQWFHUHEUDOLQIDUFWLRQ 3DWLHQWV7KHILUVWSDWLHQWLVD\HDUROGER\SUHVHQWLQJZLWKD PRQWKV KLVWRU\ RI KHDGDFKHV IDWLJXH DQG UHFXUUHQW VWRPDWDWLV 9RPLWLQJ GLSORSLD DQG RHGHPD RI WKH RSWLF GLVFV OHG WR WKH GLDJQRVLV RI LQFUHDVHG ,&3 05, SKOHERJUDSK\ VKRZHG HYLGHQFH RI&9677KHHWLRORJ\ZDV%HKo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

33 ,6 &(5(%5263,1$/ )/8,' &6) 23(1,1* 35(6685( $ 352*1267,& )$&725 ,1 36(8'278025&(5(%5," ,II7)XKUHU.0RMRQ':HLVVHUW0 2VWVFKZHL]HU.LQGHUVSLWDOXQG$XJHQNOLQLN.66W*DOOHQ

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

33 &/,1,&$/ 6<07206 ,1 ($5/<216(7 %(1,*1 &+,/'+22' (3,/(36< :,7+ 2&&,3,7$/ 3$52;<606 .URLVV%HQQLQJHU66FKURHWHU%6FKPLWW0HFKHONH7 1HXURSHGLDWULF'HSDUWPHQW&KLOGUHQV+RVSLWDO/XFHUQH&+

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ÄHQFHSKDOLWLF³ WHPSRUDO OREH VLJQV ZLWK GHVRULHQWDWLRQ LPSDLUHG FRQVFLRXVQHVV DSKDVLD DQG RURPRWRU DXWRPDWLVPV ,QLWLDOO\ HQFHSKDOLWLV PLJUDLQH DFFRPSDJQpH LQWR[LFDWLRQ RU PHWDEROLF FULVLV KDG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG DV D GLIIHUHQWLDOGLDJQRVLV1RFKLOGUHFHLYHGORQJWHUPDQWLFRQYXOVDQWV 'XULQJ VKRUWWHUP IROORZXS RQO\ RQH FKLOG H[SHULHQFHG D UHFXUUHQWVHL]XUH &RQFOXVLRQ ,Q SUHVFKRROFKLOGUHQ ZLWK DFXWH LPSDLUPHQW RI FRQVFLRXVQHVV KHDGDFKH DQG YRPLWLQJ WKLV EHQLJQ VHL]XUH V\QGURPH LV QRW XQFRPPRQ DQG VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG (DUO\ GLDJQRVLVE\VOHHS ((*DYRLGVIXUWKHULQYDVLYHDQGXQQHFFHVVDU\ GLDJQRVWLFSURFHGXUHV

33 5(7$5'(' 63((&+ '(9(/230(17 (3,/(36<$)$0,/<+,6725<

$1'

7LOOPDQQ%/WVFKJ-:HEHU3 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQCV+RVSLWDO%DVHO

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

R25

33 68'(3 68''(1 81(;3(&7(' '($7+ ,1 (3,/(36<,1&+,/'+22' :HEHU3/WVFKJ-7LOOPDQQ%%XEO5 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQC+RVSLWDO%DVHO

,QWURGXFWLRQ 68'(3 PHDQV WKH VXGGHQ XQH[SHFWHG GHDWK RI SDWLHQWVZLWKHSLOHSV\ZKLFKLVQRWFDXVHGE\WUDXPDDFFLGHQWRU VWDWXVHSLOHSWLFXV,QFKLOGUHQ68'(3LVYHU\XQXVXDO &DVH5HSRUWV :H UHSRUW FDVHV RI 68'(3 DPRQJ RXU SDWLHQWV ZLWKHSLOHSV\EHWZHHQ±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

33 237,& 1(85,7,6 ,1 &+,/'5(1 5(75263(&7,9(678'<2)3$7,(176

.RUII&6DIUDQ$%+DHQJJHOL&K$ &KLOGUHQ¶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

33 81,/$7(5$/ (;23+7$/086 ,1 $ <($56 2/'*,5/:,7+&<67,&),%526,6 &&DVDXOWD$5GHEHUJ0=DQRODUL0+6FK|QL./lGHUDFK 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3HGLDWULFV 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO DQG 'HSDUWPHQW RI &UDQLRIDFLDO 6XUJHU\ ,QVHOVSLWDO &+ %HUQH 6ZLW]HUODQG

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

33 ,175$87(5,1( 0$1,)(67$7,21 2) &(/,$& ',6($6(

)DUXN +DG]LVHOLPRYLF 5HQDWD *HQHWR $QQH 0DULH %XUJLQ :ROII'DOH6+XII .LQGHUWDJHVNOLQLN/LHVWDO 7KH&KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDORI3KLODGHOSKLD3HQQV\OYDQLD86$ 3UHYLRXV VWXGLHV KDYH GHVFULEHG WKH LQFUHDVHG LQFLGHQFH RI LQWUDXWHULQH JURZWK UHWDUGDWLRQ ,8*5 LQ QHZERUQV RI PRWKHUV ZLWK XQWUHDWHG FHOLDF GLVHDVH &' $ JOXWHQ IUHH GLHW HOLPLQDWHV WKH UHWDUGHG JURZWK LQ VXEVHTXHQW SUHJQDQFLHV $LP RI 6WXG\ WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKH PDQLIHVWDWLRQV DQG SDWKRJHQHVLV RI LQWUDXWHULQH &'0HWKRGV7KHELUWKZHLJKWVRIFKLOGUHQZLWKFHOLDFGLVHDVH ZHUHFRPSDUHGWRWKRVHRIKHDOWK\VLEOLQJV$OOZHUHFKLOGUHQRI KHDOWK\ PRWKHUV ZLWK DW OHDVW RQH LQYROYHG FKLOG 3ODFHQWDV IURP PRWKHUV ZLWK IURP PRWKHUV ZLWKRXW FHOLDF GLVHDVH ZHUH HYDOXDWHG EOLQGO\ XVLQJ URXWLQH DQG ,J$ DQWLJOLDGLQ DQWLERG\ LPPXQRKLVWRFKHPLFDO VWDLQV EHIRUH DQG DIWHU DEVRUSWLRQ ZLWK JOLDGLQ 5HVXOWV 7KH LQFLGHQFH RI ,8*5 ZDV JUHDWHU LQ WKH FKLOGUHQZLWKWKHGLVHDVHWKDQWKRVHZLWKRXWGLVHDVHYV S )LVKHUV ([DFW 7HVW %LRSVLHV RI DOO SODFHQWDV VKRZHG SRVLWLYH VWDLQLQJ IRU JOLDGLQ FRQILQHG WR WKH H[WUD YLOORXV WURSKREODVW 7KH F\WRWURSKREODVWV LQ WKH DEQRUPDO SODFHQWDV RI PRWKHUV ZLWK FHOLDF GLVHDVH H[SUHVVHG WLVVXHWUDQVJOXWDPLQDVH W7* PRUHVWURQJO\WKDQLQWKRVHIURPQRUPDOSODFHQWDVS 7KHUHZDVDSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLQFUHDVHLQSHULYLOORXV ILEULQ LPPXQRORJLF VSRQJH DQG WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI W7* S &RQFOXVLRQV 7KH OLQN EHWZHHQ SDWKRORJ\ RI WKH SODFHQWD WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI W7* DQG WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI SHULYLOORXV ILEULQ VXJJHVW WKDW LPPXQRORJLFDO PHFKDQLVPV DUH DFFRXQWDEOH IRU ,8*5 ,QWUDXWHULQH H[SRVXUH WR JOLDGLQ LQ JHQHWLFDOO\ SUHGLVSRVHG FKLOGUHQUHVXOWVLQJURZWKUHWDUGDWLRQLWLVWKHILUVWPDQLIHVWDWLRQRI &'

R26

33 /21*7(50())(&72)7+(75($70(17:,7+ $6$ ,1 &+,/'5(1 :,7+ ,1)/$00$725< %2:(/',6($6( )DUXN+DG]LVHOLPRYLF-2:LGDXHU/5(PPRQV .LQGHUWDJHVNOLQLN2ULVWDOVWUDVVHD/LHVWDO

,QWURGXFWLRQ (DUOLHU ZH IRXQG WKDW WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SURSHUWLHVRI$6$DUHDJHLQGHSHQGHQWDQGWKHGUXJKDVDZLGH PDUJLQ RI VDIHW\ +RZHYHU OLPLWHG NQRZOHGJH H[LVWV FRQFHUQLQJ ±$6$¶V ORQJWHUP HIIHFW 3DWLHQWV :H UHSRUW QRZ RQ WKH ORQJ WHUP WUHDWPHQW RI LQIODPPDWRU\ ERZHO GLVHDVH ZLWK $6$ LQ FKLOGUHQZLWKVHYHUHGLVHDVH(DFKSDWLHQWUHFHLYHGDWOHDVW\HDUV RI FRQWLQXRXV WUHDWPHQW ZLWK WKH GUXJ IRU D SHULRG RI PRUH WKDQ SDWLHQW\HDUVLQWRWDO)RUW\SHUFHQWRIWKHSDWLHQWVZLWK&URKQ V GLVHDVH KDG DW OHDVW RQH VXUJHU\ GXULQJ WKDW WLPH ZKLOH RI WKHPZLWKXOFHUDWLYHFROLWLVKDGWRKDYHDWRWDOFROHFWRP\3DWLHQWV UHFHLYHG$6$PJNJGD\5HVXOWV7KHSDWLHQWVWROHUDWHGWKH GUXJ ZLWK QR VHULRXV DGYHUVH UHDFWLRQV VXFK DV KHSDWLF RU UHQDO G\VIXQFWLRQ RU SDQFUHDWLWLV )HPDOHV KDG HQGLROLRVWRP\ PRUH RIWHQ FRPSDUHGWRWKH PDOHVS)LVFKHU([DFW 2QH6LGHG7HVW 7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHSDWLHQWVUHDFKHGVXFFHVVIXOO\ WKHLU JHQHWLFDOO\ WDUJHWHG JURZWK $OO SRVWSXEHUWDO IHPDOHV KDG QRUPDOPHQVWUXDOF\FOHVDQGVH[XDOGHYHORSPHQW+RZHYHUDOORI WKH PHQ H[DPLQHG WR GDWH KDG VHULRXV DQRPDOLHV LQ WKHLU UHFHQWVSHUPLRJUDPVPRUHWKDQRIWKHLUVSHUPKDGDEQRUPDO KHDGIRUPVLQGLFDWLQJVHYHUHWHUDWRVSHUPLDEXWQRQHRIWKHPKDG VHYHUH ROLJRVSHUPLD 7KH H[WHQVLYH QXFOHDU SOHRPRUSK\ W\SLILHV WKH DEQRUPDO FKDUDFWHULVWLF FRQGLWLRQ NQRZQ DV QXFHORPDODFLD SRVVLEO\GLVHDVHUHODWHG &RQFOXVLRQ 2XU ORQJWHUP VWXG\ VXJJHVWV WKDW $6$ LV D VDIH DQG ZHOOWROHUDWHG PHGLFDWLRQ WKDW LV SDUWLFXODUO\ VXLWHG IRU ORQJ WHUPWUHDWPHQWRI,%'LQFKLOGUHQDQGDGROHVFHQWV

33 62/,7$5< -89(1,/( 32/<36 $6 $1 81'(5(67,0$7('&$86(2)%/22'<6722/6 6FKPLGW00*HEEHUV-6SDOLQJHU- 3lGLDWULVFKH.OLQLN.LQGHUVSLWDO/X]HUQ 3DWKRORJLVFKHV,QVWLWXW.DQWRQVVSLWDO/X]HUQ

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

33 7+( *,5/ :,7+ 7+( %/$&. 1(&. $&$17+26,61,*5,&$16$6$/($',1*6,*12) +$,5$16<1'520(,1$3$7,(17:,7+/$7( 216(7&$+ 6]LQQDL**LVVOHU6=XPVWHJ8 3HGLDWULF(QGRFULQRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO%DVHO

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

33 )5(( 7(67267(521( )7 $662&,$7,21 :,7+ 38%(57$/ 67$*( ,1 &203$5,6,21 72 727$/ 7(67267(521( 77 $1' 776(; +25021( %,1',1**/2%8/,16+%* 5$7,2 0HLQKDUGW8$PPDQQ5$0XOOLV3( 'LYLVLRQ RI 3DHGLDWULF (QGRFULQRORJ\ 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO,QVHOVSLWDO%HUQ6ZLW]HUODQG

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

JLUOV

Q

ER\V

Q

7KH -RQFNKHUH7HUSVWUD -7 WHVW VKRZHG KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW DVVRFLDWLRQV RI I7 W7 DQG W76+%*5DWLR ZLWK 7DQQHU VWDJHV LQ ER\VDQGJLUOVSWKURXJKRXW 7KHVWDQGDUGL]HG-7VWDWLVWLFV RII7W7DQGW76+%*5DWLRIRUER\VDQGJLUOVZHUH DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ &RQFOXVLRQ,QER\VI7KDVWKHVWURQJHVWDVVRFLDWLRQZLWKSXEHUWDO VWDJH LQ JLUOV KRZHYHU LW LV WKH W76+%*UDWLR SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH HVWURJHQV LQFUHDVH 6+%* DQG WKHUHIRUH KLJKHU SHUFHQWDJHV RI DQGURJHQVDUHERXQGLQZRPHQ

R27

33 121,19$6,9('(7(50,1$7,212)*/<&2*(1 785129(5,1+($/7+<&+,/'5(1 -RUQD\YD])56HO]57DSS\/:RULQJHU97KHLQW]* 'HSWRI3DHGLDWULFV&+89,QVWRI3K\VLRORJ\81,/ 6FKRRO+HDOWK6HUYLFHV/DXVDQQH

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

33 /(,*+6<1'520($3266,%/(',))(5(17,$/ ',$*126,62)+<32*/<&(0,$ 5*XJJHQKHLP3K*RHWVFKHO 0HGL]LQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlWVNLQGHUNOLQLN=ULFK .OLQLNIU.LQGHUXQG-XJHQGOLFKH6WDGWVSLWDO7ULHPOL=ULFK

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

33 &(5(%5$/ 9(1286 6,186 7+520%26,6 $1' 25$/&2175$&(37,9(6

+DUWPDQQ . 5XWLVKDXVHU & 1DYUDWLO ) &DSRQH 0RUL $ (EHU6:%HUJVWUlVVHU( 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO=XULFK

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

33 75$,1,1*1(('6$66(660(17,1$'2/(6&(17 0(',&,1( $021* 6:,66 3$(',$75,& 5(6,'(176$1$7,21$/6859(< 6WURQVNL60&DIOLVFK0 'HSDUWPHQWRI3DHGLDWULFV8QLYHUVLW\RI*HQHYD6ZLW]HUODQG 0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\8QLWIRU$GROHVFHQW+HDOWK 8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDO/DXVDQQH6ZLW]HUODQG

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

R28

33 35263(&7,9( 021,725,1* 2) +,*+'26( ,0,3(1(0&,/$67$7,1 +',03& ,1 $1 ,17(16,9( &$5( 81,7 ,&8 3(',$75,& 3238/$7,21 (*LDQQRQL'%XJQRQ-&RWWLQJ3$0DMFKHUF]\N 03*ODXVHU30RUHLOORQ&+89/DXVDQQH&+

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ò DQG K FOHDUDQFH DQGOKNJ966 DQG ONJ ,QWHULQGLYLGXDO YDULDWLRQV ZHUH REVHUYHG EXW DOO 3NV ZHUH ZLWKLQ WKH WKHUDSHXWLF UDQJH DQG QR WR[LFLW\ ZDV UHFRUGHG 7KH GUXJ . SDUDOOHOHG WKH FUHDWLQLQHPLD U S 7LPH DERYH 0,& ZDV IRU RI DOO VXVFHSWLEOH VWDLQV ZLWK FOLQLFDO FXUH LQ DOO WKH SDWLHQWV
33 36<&+2/2*,&$/ ',675(66 $1' &23,1* ,1 )$7+(562)3(',$75,&3$7,(176

5LEL. /DQGROW0$ 9ROOUDWK0 6HQQKDXVHU)+ *QHKP+S( 8QLYHUVLW\ &KLOGUHQ¶V +RVSLWDO =XULFK 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 2VOR ,QVWLWXWHRI3V\FKRORJ\&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO$DUDX

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

33 '(9(/230(17$/ 5(*5(66,21 6(/) 087,/$7,21 $1' $&5$/ (5<7+52'(50$ ,1 $72''/(50(5&85<,172;,&$7,21 &KU\VRFKRRX & 5XWLVKDXVHU & *DXWVFKL 0 5DXEHU & %ROWVKDXVHU ( 5DPHOOL *3 5HJD]]RQL %0 '¶$SX]]R 9 6XSHUWL)XUJD$ 3HGLDWULF +RVSLWDOV RI =XULFK %HOOLQ]RQD DQG 0HQGULVLR DQG 72;&HQWHU=XULFK

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

33 %$57+ 6<1'520( 35(6(17,1* $6 5e&855(17 1(87523e1,$ :,7+287 &$5',20<23$7+< .HUQ , &DQWOD\ $0 6WHZDUG &* *LUDUGLQ ( 2]VDKLQ $+ 8QLYHUVLW\RI*HQHYD&KLOGUHQ¶V+RVSLWDO6ZLW]HUODQG 'HSWRI 3DWKRORJ\ 0LFURELRORJ\%ULVWRO8QLYHUVLW\8.

$ PRQWKV ROG ER\ ZDV KRVSLWDOL]HG IRU KLV IRXUWK HSLVRGH RI VHYHUH IHEULOH QHXWURSHQLD DFFRPSDQLHG E\ GLDUUKHD :H QRWLFHG JURZWK UHWDUGDWLRQ GHOD\ LQ PRWRU PLOHVWRQHV DQG KHSDWRPHJDO\ ,PPXQRJOREXOLQVLPPXQHUHVSRQVHVWRYDFFLQHVDQGDVZHDWWHVW ZHUH DOO QRUPDO 6XEVHTXHQWO\ HOHYDWHG XULQDU\ PHWK\OJOXWDFRQLF DFLG OHDG XV WR VXVSHFW %DUWK V\QGURPH +RZHYHU P\RFDUGLDO IXQFWLRQ DSSHDUHG QRUPDO RQ FDUGLDF XOWUDVRXQG 7KH ©FODVVLFDOª SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI %DUWK V\QGURPH DQ ;OLQNHG UHFHVVLYHGLVRUGHU20,0 LVGRPLQDWHGE\VHYHUHHDUO\ RQVHW GLODWHG FDUGLRP\RSDWK\ ZLWK YDULDEO\ DVVRFLDWHG QHXWURSHQLD VKRUW VWDWXUH SUR[LPDO P\RSDWK\ DQG PHWK\OJOXWDFRQLFDFLGXULD7KHVHUHVXOWIURPPXWDWLRQVLQWKH* 7$= JHQHHQFRGLQJWKHSURWHLQ7$= :H KDYH IRXQG DQ $7 VXEVWLWXWLRQ LQ H[RQ RI WKH * JHQHLQRXUSDWLHQWFRQVLVWHQWZLWKDPLOGIRUPRI%DUWKV\QGURPH $V UHSRUWV LQ WKH OLWWHUDWXUH FRQFHQWUDWH RQ WKH PRUH VHYHUH SKHQRW\SHV PLOG IRUPV PD\ EH XQGHUGLDJQRVHG :H LQWHQG WR SHUIRUP DQQXDO FDUGLDF H[DPLQDWLRQ DV ODWHU RQVHW FDUGLDF LQYROYPHQWFDQQRWEHH[FOXGHG

R29

33 ;;;;<6<1'520( &$6(5(3257 $1' 5(9,(: 2)7+(/,7(5$785( 7LOOPDQQ%0LQ\3:HEHU3 8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQCV+RVSLWDO%DVHO

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

33 087$7,21$/ ³+276327´ ,1 7+( 76+ β̓ҏ68181,7 *(1( &$86,1* ,62/$7(' 76+ '(),&,(1&<

'HODGRs\ - 'RPHQp +0 9XLVVR] -0 +HLQULFK +- 0XOOLV 3( 3HGLDWULF(QGRFULQRORJ\8QLYHUVLW\&KLOGUHQ+RVSLWDO%HUQ

,VRODWHG WK\URWURSLQ WK\URLGVWLPXODWLQJ KRUPRQH 76+ GHILFLHQF\GXHWRWKH&9PXWDWLRQRI76+β ̓VXEXQLWJHQHKDV EHHQ UHFHQWO\ GHVFULEHG LQ PDQ\ QRQFRQVDQJXLQHRXV IDPLOLHV 7KLV PXWDWLRQ D ES IUDPHVKLIWGHOHWLRQ GHO7 RI WKH 76+β VXEXQLW JHQH OHG WR D F\VWHLQH WR YDOLQH FRQYHUVLRQ DQG WR D SUHPDWXUH VWRS FRGRQ DW DPLQR DFLG &9 ; DEEUHYLDWHG &9 ,QFOXGLQJ WKH WZR QHZ 6ZLVV IDPLOLHV SUHVHQWHG KHUH WKH &9 PXWDWLRQ KDV EHHQ IRXQG LQ QLQH XQUHODWHG QRQFRQVDQJXLQHRXV IDPLOLHV ZKHUHDV DOO RWKHU YDULDQWV RI 76+β ̓VXEXQLW JHQH PXWDWLRQV UHSRUWHG VR IDU KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHGLQFRQVDQJXLQHRXVIDPLOLHV7KHUHIRUHWKHIUHTXHQF\RI WKH&9PXWDWLRQFDXVLQJFHQWUDOFRQJHQLWDOK\SRWK\URLGLVPLQ XQUHODWHG QRQFRQVDQJXLQHRXV IDPLOLHV OHG WR WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH FRGRQ PLJKW EH D ³KRW VSRW´ DUHD LQ WKH 76+β ̓VXEXQLW JHQH 7R DVVHVV WKLV K\SRWKHVLV ZH KDYH SHUIRUPHG KDSORW\SH DQDO\VLV RI ILYH XQUHODWHG IDPLOLHV KDYLQJ WKH &9 PXWDWLRQ WZR 6ZLVV DQG WKUHH $UJHQWLQHDQ IDPLOLHV XVLQJ SRO\PRUSKLF PLFURVDWHOOLWH PDUNHUV HQFRPSDVVLQJ WKH 76+β ̓VXEXQLW JHQH LQ RUGHU WR H[FOXGH DQ\ FRPPRQ DOOHOH EHWZHHQ WKHVH IDPLOLHV IRXQGHU HIIHFW 6HJUHJDWLRQ DQDO\VLV LQGLFDWHG WKDW HDFK IDPLO\ SRVVHVVHV D XQLTXH KDSORW\SH ZKLFK LV GLIIHUHQW EHWZHHQ DOO WKH ILYH IDPLOLHV DQDO\]HG KHUH 7KHUHIRUH WKHVH UHVXOWV H[FOXGH D IRXQGHU HIIHFW DQG VWURQJO\ VXJJHVW WKDW WKH FRGRQ LV D ³KRW VSRW´DUHDLQWKH76+β ̓VXEXQLWJHQH

)0 '(9(/230(17$/ 287&20( $1' 6&+22/ ,17(*5$7,21$7<($56$021*35(0$785( ,1)$176 :,7+ $ %,57+:(,*+7 * $1' :,7+2870$-25+$1',&$3 9LTXHUDW ) )RUFDGD 0 -DXQLQ / )DZHU &/7ROVD -) 0RHVVLQJHU $ 'LYLVLRQ RI 1HRQDWRORJ\ 'HSDUWPHQW RI 3HGLDWULFV/DXVDQQH&+896ZLW]HUODQG

,QWURGXFWLRQ GHVSLWH UHFHQW SURJUHVV LQ 1HRQDWRORJ\ SUHPDWXUH EDELHV DUH DW ULVN RI SUHVHQWLQJ QHXURGHYHORSPHQWDO DEQRUPDOLWLHV 1'$ OHDGLQJWRVFKRROLQWHJUDWLRQGLIILFXOWLHVHVSHFLDOO\IRUWKH PRVW LPPDWXUH 3RSXODWLRQ DQG 0HWKRGV SUHPDWXUH EDELHV ERUQ EHWZHHQ MDQXDU\ DQG GHFHPEHU DQG ZHLJKWLQJ J ZHUH KRVSLWDOL]HG LQ WKH 'LYLVLRQ RI 1HRQDWRORJ\ GLHG GHYHORSHG D PDMRU KDQGLFDS 0+ FRXOGQ¶W EH H[DPLQHG DW \HDUV FKLOGUHQ ZHUH HYDOXDWHG DW \HDUV E\ D SK\VLFDO DQG D QHXURORJLFDO DVVHVVPHQW D SV\FKRORJLFDO H[DPLQDWLRQ DQG D TXHVWLRQQDLUHZDVILOOHGRXWE\WKHLUWHDFKHUV*LOOEHUJ 7KHVHGDWD ZHUHFRUUHODWHGZLWKWKHFHUHEUDODEQRUPDOLWLHVIRXQGLQWKHEUDLQ XOWUDVRXQG 86 PDGH LQ WKH QHRQDWDO SHULRG LQWUDFUDQLDO KHPRUUKDJH ,&+ JUDGH ,,, DQG SHULYHQWULFXODU OHXFRPDODFLD 39/ RIVPDOOVL]H 5HVXOWV

0LQRUKDQGLFDS YLVLRQKHDULQJ PRWULFLW\ ,4:,6&5 6SHHFKGLVRUGHUV %HKDYLRUDOGLVRUGHUV 6FKRROGLIILFXOWLHV

J Q

QRUPDO 86 ,&+ Q Q

39/ Q

±

±

±

±

0LQRUKDQGLFDSVFRQFHUQHGHVVHQWLDOO\YLVLRQLPSDLUPHQW &RQFOXVLRQV $W\HDUVRIDJHDOWKRXJKWKH\VKRZDQRUPDO LQWHOOHFWXDO OHYHO WKH H[WUHPHO\ ORZELUWK ZHLJKW LQIDQWV ZLWKRXW 0+ GLVSOD\ PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ 1'$ DQG VFKRRO GLIILFXOWLHV WKDQ VFKRROFKLOGUHQDWWKHVDPHDJH 7KHUHLVQRFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ 1'$DQG86DEQRUPDOLWLHV 3UHPDWXUHLQIDQWVRIJDQG ZLWKRXW0+DUHDWULVNRIGHYHORSLQJPRUHVXEWOHGLVRUGHUVZKLFK FRXOG OHDG WR VFKRRO LQWHJUDWLRQ GLIILFXOWLHV DQG QHHG WR EH LQFOXGHGLQDORQJWHUPIROORZXSSURJUDP

R30

$87+25,1'(; $GDP2 $GDPV0 $OFRED* $PPDQQ5$ $QJVW5 $YROHGR3 %DDOV+ %DFKPDQQ'&* %DHQ]LJHU2 %DHU* %DUW3$ %DXPJDUWQHU5 %DXU$ %HJKHWWL0 %HUFOD]-3 %HUJHU& %HUJHU70 %HUJVWUlVVHU( %HUQDVFRQL$ %HUQHU0 %HUWKHW* %LFKVHO0 %OLFNHQVWRUIHU' %ROW, %ROWVKDXVHU( %RQKRHIIHU- %RVFKHULQL' %UDHJJHU& %UDXQ)DKUOlQGHU %UXQ, %XEO5 %XFKHU+8 %XHWWLNHU9 %XJQRQ' %KOPDQQ8 %XUJLQ:ROII$0 &DIOLVFK0 &DIOLVFK8 &DQWOD\$0 &DSDXO6 &DSRQH0RUL$ &DVDXOWD& &DVVLQRWWL3 &KU\VRFKRRX& &OpPHQW) &RUER]$ &RWWLQJ- 'DKUDQ6 ' $SX]]R9 'D\3-5 'HODGRs\- 'HODYHOOH- 'LDQD$ 'RPHQp+0 (EHU6: (PPRQV/5 (QJ3$ (VVOLQJHU$ )DWWHW6 )DZHU&/ )RUFDGD0 )UH\% )UH\8

33 33 )0 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 )0 33 333333 )0 3333 33 3333 33 33 33 )0 33 33 33 33 33 33 )0 )0 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 )033 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 3333 33 33 33 33 )0 )033 )0 )033 3333 )0

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lJHU* 33 -DXQLQ/ )0 -HDQQHUHW0 3333 -|KU0 33 -RUQD\YD])5 33 .DODQJRV$ 33 .HPSHU0- 33 .HUQ, 33 .LHV6 33 .LQG& 33 .LQGOL. 33 .Q|SIOL% 33 .|Q'/ 33 .RUII& 33 .URLVV%HQQLQJHU63333 .KQH7 33 /lGHUDFK. 33 /DQGROW0$ 33 /DXEVFKHU% 333333 /HXWKDUGW5 33 /RIWKRXVH& 3333 /RVD0 33 /WVFKJ- 333333 0DLQHWWL& 33 0DMFKHUF]\N3$ 33

R31

0DUWLQ%& 33 0DWWHU+& 33 0D\HUDW& 33 0ED\H$ 33 0HLHU* 33 0HLHU3: 33 0HLQKDUGW8 33 0HUOR$ 33 0H\HU& 33 0LFDOOHI- 33 0LQ\3 33 0RHVVLQJHU$ )033 0RMRQ' 33 0|OOHU$ )0 0RUHLOORQ3 33 0KOHPDQQ. 33 0OOHU&( 3333 0XOOLV3( 3333 1DGDO' 3333 1DYUDWLO) 33 1HQDGRY%HFN0 )033 1HXKDXV7- 3333 1LHGHUPDQQ) 33 1LJJOL) 3333 1LNVLF9 33 1LQHW% 33 2HKOVFKOHJHO&K 33 2]VDKLQ$+ 33 3DQQDWLHU$ 33 3DQWDOHR* 33 3DUUHW/ )0 3DUYH[3 33 3HUQHJHU79 33 3HUUHOHW$ 33 3HUUHW3 33 3HVVRD6LOYD&/ 3333 3ILVWHU5 333333 3KDQ+XJ) )0 3LQ|VFK6 33 3LWWHW' 3333 3RVID\. 3333 4XLOOHW- 33 5DGML6 33 5DPHOOL*3 33333333 5DXEHU& 33 5HJD]]RQL%0 33 5LEL. 33 5LFKDUG-/ 33 5LOOLHW- 33 5RGXLW& 33 5RKQHU3 333333 5RXOHW0 33 5GHEHUJ$ 33 5XSSHQ: 33 5XWLVKDXVHU& )0333333 6DIUDQ$% 33 6DXUHQPDQQ7 3333 6DXYDLQ0- 33 6FKDDG8% 33 6FKHLQHPDQQ. 33 6FKLEOHU$ 33 6FKOHJHO& 3333 6FKPLGKHLQ\. 33 6FKPLGW00 33 6FKPLWW0HFKHONH733 6FKQHLGHU) 33

6FKQHLGHU- 6FKROO6 6FK|QL0+ 6FKURHWHU% 6FKXELJHU* 6HO]5 6HQQKDXVHU)+ 6LGOHU0 6LHJULVW&$ 6RPHUYLOOH$ 6SDOLQJHU- 6SDUWj* 6WDOOPDFK7 6WHZDUG&* 6WUDXE' 6WURQVNL60 6XSHUWL)XUJD$ 6]LQQDL* 7DSS\/ 7KHLQW]* 7LOOPDQQ% 7LVVLqUHV3 7ROVD-) 7RXYHQHDX6 8W]6 9LTXHUDW) 9ROOUDWK0 9XLVVR]-0 :DJQHU%3 :DOGYRJHO. :HEHU3 :HJQHU6 :HLVVHUW0 :LGDXHU-2 :LOGKDEHU-+ :LOOL8 :LWVFKL0 :RULQJHU9 :\WWHQEDFK0
33 )0 33 33 33 33 )0)033 33 3333 33 33 33 33 33 )0 33 33 33 33 )033 333333 3333 )0 3333 33 )0 33 33 33 33 )0333333 33 33 33 )0 33 33 33 33 33 33 )033 33

Common Congress Swiss Society of Pediatrics and Swiss Society of Infectiology

Recommend Documents