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Development. Copyright © 2000 The Society for International Development. SAGE Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA and New Delhi), 1011-6370 (200009) 43:3; 126–127; 014230.
Last Word
Kenya at the Crossroads ARTHUR MULIRO
The Kenya Scenarios Project was launched in October 1998 by the Society for International Development (SID) and the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) with a view to building and promoting dialogue on possible futures that Kenya could face. Inspired by the success of similar scenario exercises in South Africa, SID and the IEA hoped to contribute to the process of strengthening democratization in its broadest possible sense (political, social and economic) by launching a process that will attempt ongoing dialogue about possible futures for Kenya through participation of policy-makers and citizens from civil society groups. Kenya has seen its fortunes dwindle rapidly since the late 1980s. From an economy that was once hailed as a model for the rest of the continent, Kenya is today struggling to make ends meet and to cope with the challenges of a rapidly changing world. Social tensions have increased, in stride with the increased income disparities: the rich have inevitably grown richer, while the poor and the fledgling middle class have seen their fortunes dwindle. Rampant corruption, a stagnant economy, high levels of unemployment – particularly in the urban areas – and the manipulation and exploitation of ethnic tensions for political gain mean that the peaceful and stable nature of Kenya can no longer be taken for granted. ‘Kenya at the Crossroads’ is an attempt to focus the dialogue and debate on Kenya’s future. It seeks to move people into the realm of the future and demonstrate how their actions can shape a desired future. It is the result of research, analysis and discussions, workshops and meetings by a group of more than 80 Kenyans of all ages and professions. The public launch of the scenarios booklet in Nairobi in April was well received and much attention was drawn to the relevance of the messages of the scenarios and the need to re-think options and strategies that were in place.
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Muliro: Kenya at the Crossroads The scenarios offer two main messages: first, that Kenya has pretty much reached the limits of its current economic and institutional models and foundations. As such, quick fixes are unlikely to work for much longer and the imperative of fundamental change cannot be avoided. The second main message from the project is that a successful and prosperous outcome for Kenya is still possible. Any successful outcome will require radical reorganization and great sacrifices by all Kenyans. This would involve drastic changes to revive the economy and a comprehensive reorganization of Kenya’s primary institutions and models of governance and relationships between the citizenry and the government. Scenarios for the future The team foresaw four possible outcomes, depending on the answers to four crucial questions: Will the confusion and inertia of recent times thwart efforts to transform both the economic models and reorganize the politics and institutions of governance in Kenya? If so, the status quo is maintained, tension is heightened and Kenya will fracture into regional and ethnic enclaves. This is a scenario of decline and disintegration labelled ‘El Niño’. Will the transformation concentrate on reordering the economy only and postpone agreements on needed changes in the political structures and environment? If so, the gains of the economic transformation will not last for long as the political tensions will emerge after a while and will require sorting out if gains are not to be lost. This is a scenario of initial rapid gains but is full of inequalities and instability and is labelled ‘Maendeleo’.
Will the transformation be drawn out, lasting for most of the next decade, and focusing on institutional reorganization and the creation of democratic and locally accountable institutions? If so, though responsive institutions will emerge, Kenya will not achieve far-reaching economic transformation, and poverty might increase – a powerful ingredient for instability. This scenario is labelled ‘Katiba’. Will there be a definite departure from destructive politics? Will the incumbency realize its position is untenable and will it reach a political settlement with key adversaries? Will a reorganization of the institutions improve representation and participation that reflect the diversity of Kenya’s people? Will this be accompanied by radical transformation of the economy to spur growth and improve distribution? If all the major actors engage in this transformation, Kenya can achieve inclusive democracy and growth. This is the scenario of simultaneous and inclusive reforms of both the economy and major institutions labelled ‘Flying Geese’. When all is said and done, however, the message of the scenarios to Kenyans (and their friends) is that they are at the stage where they all need to shape the country’s future as primary actors. What choices will they make? What choices would they like others to make? How can others assist them in making those choices? Further information on the Kenya Scenarios can be obtained from the project website at http: //www.kenyascenarios.org.
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