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GeoJournal 24.3 3 1 6 - 3 1 9 © 1991 (July) by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Urban Developments in East-Central Europe Critique and Vision Triggered by a Symposium on Urban Energy Supply held at Zittan, Germany on April 15-16, 1991 Tietze, W., Dr., POB 16A7, 3330 Helmstedt, Germany

Following the collapse of the Iron Curtain, free access is now possible to large areas of East-Central Europe which used to include some of the highest developed countries of the world until World War II. Now, however, these countries are worn down beyond imagination thanks to the formidable economic incompetence of the marxist "dictatorship of the proletariat" enforced upon them for almost half a century. Few in the West are able to grasp the extent of urgent reconstruction which is so badly needed now to provide appropriate living conditions for those more than 100 million Europeans who have been exempted from normal development and adequate yield of their own effort over so long a period of time. Obviously, the eastern part of Germany possesses the best prospects to catch up fast. Farsighted politicians will certainly understand the neighbouring areas further to the east should not be left behind in the development process. In the beginning of development planning a thourough inventory is needed. This is in particular important because socialist statistics have proved to be misleading for various reasons. Although a common terminology is applied, different criteria reflect different standards in quality. Consequently, experience is needed if those sources are to be evaluated. This experience is not immediately available to scientists, technicians or administrators of either western or eastern background. Likewise, experience suggests socialist statistics may have been altered for political reasons. Scientific-technical symposia or conferences currently being organized in the eastern part of Germany by the dozen address these acute needs. One such symposium which appears to be worthwhile to mention was superbly organized by Professor Dr. W. Riesner, Technische Hochschule Zittau, April 5-6, 1991 at Zittau in the very southeastern comer of Germany. To about 400 representatives of mostly municipal administrations in eastern Germany some 18 outstanding presentations were offered for extensive discussion focussing on effective supplying with electricity and heating of urban districts in general and in detail. The level of technology in the West, on the one hand, including quite satisfactory economic terms of application, contrasts with a degree of backwardness in terms of technology, economy, and environmental considerations representing "socialist achievements", on the other hand. For example: Distance heating of entire urban quarters is usually considered to be progressive and comfortable, and so it was also adopted by the socialist authorities. But - the fuel used in heating plants was lignite of poor quality containing large amounts of moisture and ash, releasing in large quantity sulfur dioxyde and other contaminating gases to the air amidst living quarters. The energy-related efficiency of these plants was only between 27% and 34%, mostly below 300/0. The environmental damage was not calculated, in fact, hardly considered at all, and normally left unreported. The mining of the poor fuel resulted in both economically and environmentally degradation. In addition, these socialist heating plants were rarely combined with generation of electricity to improve their energy-efficiency to some degree. Combined installations of modern western standard achieve efficiencies well beyond 70°/0, and, often fueled by gas, are environmentally almost clean. Further shortcomings rest in the poor piping systems to transfer the heat from the plants to the buildings, in the heat losses caused by the lack of insulation of the buildings, and in the total absence of regulating valves. Since hot water supply is dependent on the heating, no hot water is provided at all when

heating is interrupted for repairs or over the summer months. The backwardness in technology is complemented by un-economically pricing. The costs of heating and hot water supply have not been determined, and the rates do not reflect actual costs. No wonder that no money could be accumulated for normal upkeep of the buildings, not to speak of substantial improvements. The wide-spread urban decay in the socialist sphere must be understood mainly on these grounds. This distorted relation between costs and prices has, of course, also distorted the comprehension in the people of this crucial economic fact. To overcome these conditions, huge investments would be needed. Even most cautious calculations show that to expect consumers to bear these costs via rents and fees would lead to a level of expenses which would hardly be affordable or acceptable by the people concerned. It can be assumed, therefore, that rather than meeting these high costs, they would prefer to rent appartments, and offices elsewhere. Based on these considerations the question must be raised of the future of the socialist housing estates. In eastern Germany there are 15, including Berlin East, large estates of this sort in all capitals of the former administrative districts (Bezirke). Another 10-15 housing estates of some size have developed in special growth poles like Greifswald-Lubmin, Schwedt, Eisenhtittenstadt, and elsewhere. The overall number of dwelling units may well be in the order of one million. Their further use is possible only if permanently and massively subsidized. This, however, is unlikely for political reasons, even if the Social-Democrats (still on Marxist ideology!) come tO power again. In any case, slum-formation to a large degree cannot be avoided in a medium-long run. In view of this outlook, privatization, much in fashion nowadays, must appear fraudulent and disadvantageous to the many people who currently occupy these block-appartments, and who are in particular the targets of the privatization campaigns. What other solution would make sense? The answer is as rough as simple: demolition! Those, who may be reluctant to support demolition might well consider new developments in the pattern of future urban growth in eastern Germany which soon may diffuse to adjacent European countries. Large scale investment is already on its way to build at least 40 million sqm of new office space, 11 million sqm of new retail space, and well over 2000 new hotels. It is certain that these new urban developments will represent the latest housing technology in every respect. The three main cities of Saxony: Leipzig, Dresden, and Chemnitz generally are considered to have the greatest prospects, and Dresden and Chemnitz will enjoy additional support by the beauty and attractiveness of the surrounding landscapes. However, even a relatively small city like Schwerin, the capital of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in the North, with about 130 000 inhabitants, may expect some 700 000 sqm of new office space, nearly 100 000 sqm new retail space and about 30 new hotels to accommodate some additional 2000 overnight guests. New housing development will parallel commercial construction. After one decade only, about half of the east German population (i. e. some eight million people) will definitely be accommodated at western standard. This magnitude makes the demolition and replacement of the slum-prone socialist housing estates a fairly obvious and feasible task. They have no chance to compete, and any attempt to do so would be Love's Labour's Lost!