European Journal of Population 11: 289-292, 1995.

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Book Review

G. Tapinos, Elementi di demografia (translation and adaptation of the Italian edition by C. Maccheroni), EGEA, Milano, 1994, xiv+525 pp. "Elementi di demografia" is an introductory textbook, and such books play a crucial role in the development of a scientific discipline. Conceiving a well-organized textbook in the field of demography entails considerable difficulties: the discipline has no well-defined paradigm, and it is so closely interrelated with other disciplines that no clear dividing line can be drawn. Moreover, scholars interested in population, the audience for this textbook, are a much wider group than demography students as such. Thus, a basic textbook for demography should not only present the fundamentals of the hard-core of the discipline - the principles of demographic analysis within a basic statistical framework - but go on to deal with causal explanations, referred to in the past, perhaps incorrectly, as the search for "determinants". Causal explanations, theories and models in the domain of human population dynamics draw on analogous constructions in economics, history, sociology, geography, epidemiology, biology and related disciplines. Tapinos aims at "maintaining an equilibrium between the statistical and explanatory sides" because "demography, in a broad sense - the study of human populations - is a social science, really one of the least isolatable from others, where the formulation of hypotheses cannot be replaced by statistical induction". This book, edited by C. Maccheroni, is the Italian version of the original 1985 edition of "t~16ments de d6mographie". Far from being a mere translation, this new edition organically updates and integrates the French text. As in the original edition, the book is in five parts, each divided into chapters, which end with useful, annoted bibliographic references (some of which are, however, not up-to-date). In addition, eleven of the fourteen chapters have been considerably amplified. The most significant change is stronger accent put on formalization: formal aspects play a secondary role in the 1985 edition, while the Italian edition follows a mathematically more rigorous approach. Thus, while the French edition contains several calculations without referring to their underlying formulae (as with the total fertility rate, for example), this new edition almost always makes these explicit, thereby contributing to a clear exposition of the issues. On the other hand, the Italian editor almost completely excludes methodological issues in the field of

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indirect techniques of estimation, arguing that, with new developments in this area and the heterogeneity of techniques, the structure of the book would have to have been substantially altered. In the first two parts the author provides a methodological overview of demographic analysis and the study of demographic phenomena, basing himself on the idea that "the aims of demographic analysis are describing, measuring, and analyzing". Chapter one presents and discusses the issue of observing demographic phenomena, as a prelude to analysis. Starting from censuses, surveys and forward and backward reconstructions, it goes on to deal with typical problems of population accounting, both for countries with highly reliable statistical systems and those with systems producing defective data. The estimation of net migration occupies a significant share of this chapter - as might be expected given the interests of the a u t h o r - though this emphasis has been lessened in the Italian edition, and the formal aspects of estimation using life tables transferred to the section on demographic analysis. Chapter two deals with population characteristics. Here the basic tools of analysis - in particular Lexis diagrams and age pyramids - are introduced together with useful practical examples; in addition definitions of persons-year and mean age are formalized here. Some attention is paid to families and a paragraph is dedicated to the concept of family life cycle. Cohort and period analysis are introduced in the third chapter, which has been significantly modified, once again helping the reader by emphasizing the formal aspects. The book follows the customary approach of stressing the pre-requisite nature of analyzing demographic events for cohorts and explains the ideas of renewable and nonrenewable events, intensity and tempo, rates and probabilities. The author uses a life table in order to present the analytical techniques appropriate to nonrenewable events, while renewable events are considered with reference to frameworks of fertility; a nuptiality table serves as an example of interference between demographic phenomena, and this is followed by an explanation of translations to a fictitious cohort, the basic metaphors of a period study. The first part ends with an introduction to the standardization approach, citing Coale's indirect standardized indices of fertility. It is worth noting that Maccheroni uses the words "coniugale" (marital) and "extra-coniugale" (extra-marital) with reference to fertility, which preserves the analysis of fertility from the implicit value-judgement that lies behind the term "ill6gittime". In the second part, separate chapters are devoted, as is customary, to the components of population dynamics as well as nuptiality. The chapters are structured in such a way that, after illustrating the basic tools of analysis, the reader is introduced to the problem of explanation connected with the process under examination. Nuptiality is dealt with in chapter 4, which opens with a brief introduction to period and cohort analysis of nuptiality and closes, following a consideration of first marriage models developed by J. Bourgeois-Pichat and A. J. Coale, with a look at divorce and marriage market. Chapter 5 is similarly structured: the first section is devoted to the analysis of fertility (with no reference to Brass's P-F method), while the second,

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longer one, is dedicated to determinants. Intermediate variables and explanatory variables are introduced with a concise illustration of biological factors, contraception and abortion. The author devotes some attention to socio-economic aspects of fertility, especially to the explanatory approaches of G. S. Becker, R. A. Easterlin and J. Caldwell. The succeeding chapter covers the topic of mortality and benefits greatly from having been revised. Again, it opens with a basic formal analysis of general mortality, together with infant mortality, old-age problems followed by model life tables; Gompertz and Makeham models are explained and related to the concept of mortality intensity. Thereafter, death by cause and mortality factors are investigated in a socio-economic perspective. Chapter 7 provides a surprise as the author dedicates relativelY little attention to migration in comparison with other processes, pointing out above all individual characteristics and push-pull factors. Indirect techniques of estimation of net migration, using life tables, have been formally introduced in the new edition along with the formulae for calculating migration rates. The third part of the book is devoted to population growth and dynamics, beginning, in chapter 8, with measurement and forecasting of population growth: basic demographic accounting and growth rates are considered, with replacement ratios receiving particular attention. This leads to a survey of problems encountered in forecasting population trends: logistic growth is discussed and there is an explanation of the mathematical construction behind the model. As Chapter 9 deals with population dynamics, it is the most mathematical section of the book and includes a simplified but formal introduction to Lotka's stable population theory; the reader is introduced to the concepts of Malthusian growth, stationary population and intrinsic growth rate. It is laudable that such a large part of the chapter was given over to practical applications of stable population theory together with their operative computations, besides direct and indirect applications, such as model stable populations. Part four deals with the history of populations. As a general introduction, the long-period growth of world population and the demographic transition model are dealt with. Chapter 10 is then dedicated to the population of pre-transitional Europe, as an historical application of concepts treated in the earlier three parts: demographic characteristics, regulations, trends and rhythms all receive attention. The next chapter adopts a classical approach to the European model of demographic transition. There is an outline of the fall in mortality and particular attention is paid to the causal theories of P. E. Razzel, S. Preston and E. Van de Walle, T. McKeown; the Italian edition also cites the studies of M. Livi Bacci concerning the relationship between nutrition and mortality. The second and third portions of the chapter, devoted to fertility and migration, follow the same pattern with a special emphasis on socio-economic and cultural factors. Chapter 12, the only chapter in the fourth part to have undergone substantial changes, focuses the reader's attention on contemporary history and future perspectives. The evolutionary paths of today's world population are traced, separating developed and undeveloped countries;

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unfortunately, very little attention is paid to the Second demographic transition and to new family models, even in the new edition. Migration is thoroughly examined and the last section of the chapter outlines a future perspective, as stated in 1990 UN World Population Prospects, together with the problems of stabilizing population in countries of rapid population growth. Population economics and policies occupy the final section, which has not been substantially changed. Chapter 13 is dedicated to economic consequences of demographic evolution. The author summarizes the debate on population and development with special reference to the models of T. R. Malthus and E. Boserup, though other demo-economic theories of development are presented. No reference is made to the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development, as the book was already in print. The author then investigates economic consequences of demographic evolution in developed nations, focusing on aspects of ageing; a survey of economic theories o f the effects of international migration on origin and destination countries completes the chapter. The final chapter of the book addresses the question of population policies, their extent and efficacy with respect to both developed and undeveloped countries. To be of help to the reader, a good textbook must carry detailed indices at the end of the text; in addition to a subject index, we here have a summary of mathematical notation. Nevertheless, it would be certainly difficult to use the book as a reference tool when investigating a single theme, for "Elementi di demografia" is not a textbook for a demographic analysis course, nor a reference book for demographers: it is a tool for getting students acquainted with the fascinating study of human population against a broader multi-disciplinary background. Bibliographic references, such as those given at the end of each chapter, here not always completely up-to-date, can have a real effect of stimulating the curiosityof the students on each single topic. This book may thus be able to rise the level of interest in demography on the part of scholars coming from a variety of fields: if that was its purpose, then this is a significant contribution. The chief limiting factor here is likely to be its strong focus on Italian problems, which would be a barrier to translating the new edition, even if only back into French.

FRANCESCO C. BILLARI

Department of Statistics University of Padova Italy