COMMENT COMMENT MissGiovanna Giovanna FERRARA, by Miss FERRARA,
Assicurazioni Generali, Generali, Trieste Trieste Actuary, Assicurazioni Even ifif the model is particularly interesting interesting for theoretical theoretical purposes purposes we deem that its best use use is connected connected with the practical need of of aa Company. Company. target to be be reached reached by an an insurance insurance manager manager is " preIn fact the target is not not a "prediction" about the the future futureinflation inflation rate, rate, but but the the forecasting forecasting of of the impact impact diction " about of process on on his his Company of inflationary inflationary process Company as well well as as the theconsequences consequences of of under inflationary inflationary conditions. conditions. every decision taken under
For this this purpose purpose the the model model isis particularly particularly useful useful since since itit allows allows the the manager to evaluate the different different influences influences of given rate of of inflation inflation manager to evaluate of a given the various various items items (claims, (claims, premiums, premiums, expenses expenses etc.) on the etc.) according according to to the relevant time time lags lags involved. involved.
inflationary trend this way, way, when when the inflationary to In this trend varies, varies, he he will will be be able to adopt an an adequate adequate strategy strategy in in order order totocounterbalance counterbalancethe thephenomenon phenomenon test the the results results of of the the new new policy. policy. and to test the model fits fits the features However, it is to be underlined that the more the Company the the sounder sounder the the results results of of the thesimulation simulationwill will be. be. of the Company
This does does not mean mean that thatthe themodel modelshould shouldbe beextremely extremelysophisticated sophisticated
simply itit must must reflect reflect the the main maincharacteristics characteristics of of the theCompany's Company's but simply
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activity, such as as subdivision subdivision of portfolio, portfolio, schedule schedule of of settlesettlestructure and activity, ments, distribution of investments investments etc. etc.
In other to use other words words the the Company Company which which intends intends to use the the model model for for practical purposes other hand hand the the practical purposeshas hastoto identify identifyitself itselfininit.it. On On the the other stimulation exercises exercises should should take take into into account the actual measures adopted in real real situations. situations.
The simulations simulations performed performed in in this first first study study based based on on perhaps perhaps dramatic assumptions assumptionswere wereintended intendedtoto make make the the users dramatic users acquainted acquainted with with working of model. With reference reference to the the action action 4, 4, for forinstance, instance, the working of the model. % of of the the number number of of policies policies would would seem seem unrealistic unrealistic since since the increase of of 3 % --under - a awise undersimilar similarconditions conditions wisemanager manager would would have have tried tried to to category of different percentages percentages or even even increase each category of risks according to different without the the help to reduce reduce the the portfolio. portfolio. However, However, without help of of aamathematical mathematical tool also the wisest wisest manager trouble in choosing choosing a proper proper tool also manager would would be be in in trouble strategy knowing all its effect in the future. future. strategy as as well well as in knowing Finally itit must must not be forgotten forgotten that the model model -besidesresolving resolving Finally besides practical problems problems - allows allowsthe themanager manager to toimprove improve his his knowledge knowledge about practical the complex aspects and Company. and the various connections in an Insurance Company.
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