Book Selection

Chapter IX focuses on the problem of data acquisition and the handling of data in the forecasting function, chapter X on subjective forecasting methods (i.e. decision trees) where historical data are not available, and chapter XI on qualitative approaches to forecasting. Chapter XII then provides a very useful table which allows the reader to select the most appropriate technique for his requirement in terms of the six criteria introduced in chapter I. Two additional chapters appear in the 2nd edition: chapter XIII deals with organizing and implementing a corporate forecasting function, and chapter XIV summarizes a 1975 survey which attempted to assess the status of forecasting practice in major U.S. firms. This book is good for general management versed in modern business methods but is probably too advanced for those who do not have some mathematical training. It could be most useful to an O.R. practitioner who wants to string his forecasting techniques together into an overall strategy or, perhaps, an O.R. student midway through his training. F. I. B.

MUNDLE

Forecasting Methods in Business and Management M.

FIRTII

Edward Arnold, London, 1977. 261 pp. £4.95

This book is not aimed at students or practitioners of O.R. but rather those wishing to make a career in senior and middle management. Whilst the text covers the many techniques of forecasting, contrasting and comparing alternatives, it does shy away from mathematically complex issues, preferring instead to take a more generalized view. Bearing in mind its intended audience the book is well structured and convincingly argued. The first two chapters deal with the role of forecasting in the context of goal achievement within a pluralistic organizational setting and the role of the forecaster in relation to his client and other organizational specialists. A full ten chapters cover many of the techniques of forecasting to embrace a range of qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The book concludes with two chapters devoted to practical issues associated with data capture and offers useful advice to assist the selection of appropriate techniques. Each chapter has a separate bibliography which is well referenced from the text: many of the referenced items being drawn from O.R.Q. original papers-an eminently sensible practice! The case for forecasting per se is well argued and adequately supported by an underlying theme of participation with the many parties to the forecast. The author does, in particular, stress the importance of "interaction with the M.I.S. manager to ensure an optimum contribution to the objectives of the firm". It is difficult to fault this book, for it appears to achieve its intended aim adequately. There were, however, some minor irritations in evidence for, when dealing with the subject of decision and probability trees, exclusive definitions were offered but the two terms were used interchangeably in subsequent discussion. Similarly, the author was not always explicit when identifying supposedly "standard" computer routines. However, these comments should not belittle the overall high standard of the book. This is a good, introductory forecasting text, liberally stocked with useful examples, practical hints and an abundance of references. It is certainly not a classic of its type but could nevertheless find a place on the O.R. practitioner's bookshelf, being in particular an invaluable lecturing aid. D. YATES Models of Preventive Maintenance I. B. GERTSBAKH North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1977. xiv

+ 257 pp.

Dfl 85.00 ($34.75) This book is Vol. 23 in a series entitled "Studies in Mathematical and Managerial 283

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