Incarceration
rates: Europe v e r s u s
USA
Andrd Kuhn'
Prison o v e r c r o w d i n g is an i m p o r t a n t c o n c e r n in all Western c o u n t r i e s . T h e und e s i r a b l e effects of o v e r c r o w d i n g are legion, i n c l u d i n g i n c r e a s e s in c o r r e c t i o n costs, d e l a y s before i m p r i s o n m e n t , a n d d e t e r i o r a t i o n in living a n d w o r k i n g c o n d i t i o n s for i n m a t e s a n d c o r r e c t i o n officers. O v e r c r o w d i n g d e p e n d s as m u c h on the n u m b e r of available cells (in o t h e r w o r d s the p r i s o n c a p a c i t y ) , as on the n u m b e r of inmates. Both of t h e s e factors vary t h r o u g h t i m e a n d s p a c e , but the m o s t i m p o r t a n t one, a n d c e r t a i n l y t h e m o r e difficult to control, is the n u m b e r of i n m a t e s . The m a i n i n d i c a t o r to m e a s u r e this n u m b e r is the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate. 2 It is o b t a i n e d by relating the n u m b e r of p r i s o n e r s on a specific d a t e or as an a n n u a l average to the n u m b e r of i n h a b i t a n t s in a c e r t a i n c o u n t r y or state. T h e i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate is g e n e r a l l y e x p r e s s e d by t h e n u m b e r of i n m a t e s p e r I00,000 i n h a b i t a n t s a n d varies from a b o u t 22 in I n d o n e s i a to 577 in the United States (see table 1). In W e s t e r n E u r o p e the 1994 i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates were b e t w e e n 25 (Cyprus) a n d 109 ( L u x e m b o u r g ) . This article will e x a m i n e the Europ e a n a n d A m e r i c a n i n c a r c e r a t i o n r a t e s a n d try to find out the r e a s o n s for the h u g e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e m . It will also a s s e s s w h e t h e r the E u r o p e a n i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates will r e s e m b l e t h o s e of t h e U n i t e d States in the future, or if Europ e a n policies c o u l d serve as a m o d e l for r e d u c i n g the u s rate of i n c a r c e r a t i o n .
Europe M t h o u g h the Netherlands is w e l l - k n o w n for its low i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate, its p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t w e e n 1983 a n d I994. T h e N e t h e r l a n d s
1
2
Assistant Professor of Penology, School of Forensic Sciences and Criminology. University of Lausanne (Switzerland). currently a visiting fellow at Rutgers University School of Criminal lustice, S.I. Newhouse Center for Law and Justice. University Heights. 15 Washington Street. Newark, NI 07102, USA.with the financial support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. The Council of Europe prefers the term: 'detention rate': cf. Penological Information Bulletin (former Prison Information Bulletin). See also the 'Mini-lexicon of comparative prison demography' byTournier. 1994, p. 91.
Incarceration rates: Europe versus
Table 1:
USA
47
incarceration rates per 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 i n h a b i t a n t s across the world
country
year
incarceration
country
year
per ] 00,000
incarceration per ]00,000
inhabitants
inhabitants
Albania 1
1994
30.0
Luxembourg 3
]994
109.0
Australia 2
]994
89.3
Macao 2
]995
107.]
Austria 3
] 994
85.0
Malaysia 2
] 995
] 04.2
Bangladesh ~
1995
37.]
Mexico ~
1993
97.0
Belarus 1
1994
445.0
Moldova ~
1994
275.0
Belgium 3
]994
64.8
Nepal 2
]994
33.5
Brazil 4
1993
84.0
Netherlands 3
1994
55,0
Brunet Oarussalam 2
1995
109.7
New Zealand 2
1995
126.8
Bulgaria ~
1994
95.0
Northern Ireland 3
1994
117.0
Cambodia 2
1995
26.0
Norway 3
1994
62.0
Canada 4
1994
114.0
Papua N e w G u i n e a 2
1994
106.9 91.0
China 2
1995
103.0
Peru ~
1993
Cook Islands 2
1995
225.0
Philippines 2
1995
26.2
Croatia ~
1994
60.0
Poland 3
]994
]62.6 101.0
Cyprus 3
1994
24.7
Portugal 3
1994
Czech Rep. 3
1994
181.6
Romania ~
1994
]95.0
Denmark 3
]994
72.0
Russia 4
1993
558.0
Egypt 4
1993
62.0
Scotland 3
1994
109.0
England and Wales 3
1994
96.0
Singapore 2
1995
287.3
Estonia ~
1994
270.0
Slovakia 3
1994
139.0
Fiji 2
]995
122.7
Slovenia ~
1994
40.0
Finland 3
1994
59.0
Solomon Islands 2
1995
45.5
France 3
]994
90.3
South Korea 2
1995
137.3
Germany 3
1994
83.0
South-Africa ~
1993
368.0
Greece 3
1994
7].0
Spain 3
]994
]05.9
Hong Kong ~
1995
207.2
Sri Lanka z
1994
68.1
Hungary 3
]994
128,1
Sweden 3
1994
66.0
Iceland 3
1994
38.2
Switzerland 5
1993
89.4
India 2
]995
23.5
Thailand 2
1995
]80.5
Indonesia 2
1993
2].7
Tonga 2
1994
87.0
Ireland 3
]994
58.6
Turkey 3
1994
72.4
Italy 3
] 994
89.7
USA s
1994
574.0 345.0
Japan 2
]995
37.2
Ukraine ~
1994
Kiribati 2
] 995
130.0
Vanuatu 2
1994
72.7
Latvia T
1994
365.0
Western Samoa 2
1994
146.3
Lithuania 3
1994
342.0
Source: 1 2 3 4 5
Walmsley. 1995 Biles. 1995 Council of Europe, 1994 Normandeau, 1995 National Statistic Agency data or other official data
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research vol. 4-3
48
Figure 1: Incarceration rate per 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 inhabitants in the Netherlands, 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 8 4
t h u s i l l u s t r a t e s the r e c e n t i n c r e a s e in i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates in E u r o p e (figure 1). T h e overall i n c r e a s e results m o r e from i n c r e a s e s in the n u m b e r of s e n t e n c e d o f f e n d e r s t h a n from an i n c r e a s e in p r e - t r i a l d e t a i n e e s , e s p e c i a l l y r e g a r d i n g the 1991-1994 increase. And that i n c r e a s e is not d u e to an i n c r e a s e in the use of p r i s o n s e n t e n c e s but in the l e n g t h s of s e n t e n c e s p r o n o u n c e d (Tubex a n d S n a c k e n , 1995, p. 105). In Switzerland p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n d a t a are a v a i l a b l e from 1890 to 1941 in the Statistical Yearbook. P r i s o n e r s are d i v i d e d into two m a j o r g r o u p s : s e n t e n c e d a n d u n s e n t e n c e d . Since 1982, the federal s t a t i s t i c s a g e n c y has m a i n t a i n e d a c e n t r a l d a t a b a n k on the c o r r e c t i o n a l s y s t e m w h i c h shows m o r e r e c e n t trends, a Figure 2 s h o w s the effects of e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s on i n c a r c e r a t i o n . D u r i n g t h e e c o n o m i c crisis of the 1930s, the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate rose, not b e c a u s e of the n u m b e r o f s e n t e n c e d offenders, b u t b e c a u s e o f the n u m b e r o f u n s e n t e n c e d
3
For m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u t c r i m i n a l statisiic d a t a in Switzerland, cf. Besozzlo 1989.
69
Incarceration rates: Europe versus USA
Figure 2: {flcarceration rate per 100,000 inhabitanCs in Switcerfand, 1890-1941 and 1982-1993
d e t a i n e e s . T h e i n c r e a s e in r a t e s d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f h i g h u n e m p l o y m e n t
was pre-
s u m a b l y c a u s e d b y a c h a n g e in a t t i t u d e s o f p o l i c e , e x a m i n i n g m a g i s t r a t e s , a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a u t h o r i t i e s r a t h e r t h a n b y i n c r e a s e s in c r i m e , w h i c h w o u l d b r i n g a b o u t a n i n c r e a s e in s e n t e n c e d o f f e n d e r s . T h u s it a p p e a r s t h a t a s i g n i f i c a n t number
of those accused who would otherwise keep their freedom are impris-
oned during economic crises because of their unemployment
status. 4
F i g u r e 2 a l s o s h o w s t h a t in S w i t z e r l a n d s t h e i n c a r c e r a t i o n r a t e [~ll b y h a l f b e t w e e n t h e 1930s a n d t h e 1980s, s u g g e s t i n g t h a t t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y
4
5
criminal
Since Rusche and Kirchheimer, 1939, several authors worked on the relation between economic crisis and crime on the one hand, and between economic crisis and imprisonment on the other hand; see for example Iankovic, 1977; Box and Hale, 1982 and 1986; longmao, 1983; Killias and Grand[ean, 1986; Crow et al., 1989; Laffargue and Godefroy, 19g0 and 1.99t, Goddroy and Laffargue, 1991. In France a similar decrease through time can be observed; see "t'ournier and Tugault, 1984
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research vol. ~,-3
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Figure 3: Incarceration rate per 100,000 inhabitants in Italy, 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 9 4
justice system has become less severe. But even if the median term of imprisonment served remains stable at around one month, the average length of sentences has increased by approximately 74 per cent during the last ten years (Kuhn, 1996a, p. 5; Killias et al., 1995). In Italy the overall incarceration rate dropped from 76.3 to 57.4 detainees per I00,000 inhabitants between September 1, 1986 and February 1, 1987 (figure 3). This reduction occurred mainly because of a December 16, 1986 amnesty. Italy's example shows that an amnesty can significantly reduce the incarceration rate in the short term. The question though is whether this is an appropriate way to solve the prison overcrowding problem in the middle and long terms. The Italian data suggest that an amnesty is incapable of reducing the prison population for any length of time. The sentenced offenders pattern shows that the incarceration rate quickly returns to the pre-amnesty level. The overall incarceration rate did not rise after the amnesty mainly because the pre-trial detainees rate had been decreasing since 1984. This decrease was partly due to a change in pre-trial detention law, which abolished compulsory
Incarceration rates: Europe versus USA
51
Figure 4: Incarceration rate per 100,000 inhabitants in France, 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 9 4
arrest and i n t r o d u c e d stricter c o n d i t i o n s for pre-trial d e t e n t i o n . The fall in c o r r e c t i o n s ' p o p u l a t i o n s resulting from a m n e s t i e s is t h e r e f o r e only t e m p o r a r y . A m n e s t i e s do s e e m not to be c a p a b l e of s o l v i n g o v e r c r o w d i n g p r o b l e m s in the l o n g term. Since S e p t e m b e r 1991 the overall i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate has significantly i n c r e a s e d . This s e e m s to be an effect o f illegal A l b a n i a n i m m i g r a t i o n , e n l a r g e m e n t o f the a n t i - M a f i a fight after the a s s a s s i n a t i o n s of judges, and the antic o r r u p t i o n o p e r a t i o n s led by the m a g i s t r a t e s . In F r a n c e (figure 4), the p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e d a n n u a l l y at an a v e r a g e rate of 5 per c e n t from 1956 to 1968 (Tournier, 1984, p. 524). F r o m J a n u a r y 1, 1968 to J a n u a r y 1, 1975, t h e r e was a r e d u c t i o n of a p p r o x i m a t e l y 25 per c e n t w h i c h was due to a c o m b i n a t i o n of several s t a t u t o r y laws. 6 Later, the n u m b e r of p r i s o n e r s i n c r e a s e d c o n t i n u o u s l y f r o m 1975 to 1981. A July 14, 1981 p r e s i d e n -
lune 30, 1969 and Iuly 16, 1974 amnesty laws; introduction of partially suspended sentences on July 17, 1970; a December 29, 1972 law instituting stays of sentences and giving the judge charged with the implementation of sentences the power to grant a release on parole to those sentenced for less than three years; and an October 3, 1974 decree which granted sentence reductions to prisoners who were not part of the Summer 1974 insubordination movements.
turopean Journal on Criminal Policy and Research vol. 4-3
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tiaI pardon and an August 4, 1981 amnesty law temporarily stopped that 'correctional inflation'. But the numbers increased even more from 1982 until 1988 (the stabilization between January 1, 1985 and January 1, 1986 was due to a reduction in the pre-trial detainee rate; the sentenced prisoners rate continued to grow). Following the presidential election of 1988, general pardons and one more amnesty were pronounced. A general pardon was also granted on the occasion of the French revolution bicentennial in 1989. But despite all those measures, prison populations have increased since 1990. The French experience suggests that amnesties and other pardons emporarily mask upward structural trends in prison populations. They certainly do not solve prison overcrowding. In G e r m a n y 7 (figure 5), following the reform of the criminal law in 1969, use of short terms of imprisonment was limited. 8 This restriction had a temporary reductive effect on the incarceration rate. The prison population grew quickly, however, because of an increase in the lengths of some sentences. 9 Judges seem to have replaced some of the short sentences they could no longer impose by longer ones. If the German example seems to show that efforts to reduce short-term imprisonment can produce a m e d i u m - t e r m decrease in prison population, it also seems to demonstrate that such measures dn not solve the problem of prison overcrowding in the long term. Between 1983 and I99 l, the German incarceration rate per 100,000 inhabitants decreased significantly. This p h e n o m e n o n remains unexplained among criminal policy specialists. Only a few authors have explored the question and it would appear that this decrease can be explained in part by a change in judges' and prosecutors' attitudes [Graham, 1990; Feest, 1991; Kuhn, 1996b). Nevertheless, the statistics published by the Council of Europe show that the German incarceration rate has been increasing since 1990 and that German prison overcrowding problem is perhaps not definitively solved (Kuhn, 1995a, p. 437, figure 7; 1996b, pp. 66, 73). In Austria (figure 6), the use of sentences of less than six months was limited in
1975. As in Germany, this measure does not seem to have been a long-term solution for lowering the incarceration rate. The decrease in 1975 was quickly offset. But the main interest of this figure lies in the second decrease after 1985. ,
T h e n e w L2nder have not b e e n taken into a c c o u n t here.
8
Short t e r m s w e r e first limited in 1969. and in 1975. s e n t e n c e s o f less than o n e m o n t h w e r e abolished and sentences of less than six months were limited to exceptional cases; see lescheck, 1985.
9
In 1973 there were twice as many sentences between six and twelve months as in 1968. and in 1983 they were even three times as many as in 1966: that increase was not doe to an increase in drug consumption and/or dealing: see Kuhn, 1996b. p. 6i: Heinz, 1988, pp. 64.68; le'~check. 1985, p. 160: Kiwull, 1979, pp. 3. 7.
Incarceration rates: Europeversus USA
Figure 5: I n c a r c e r a t i o n rate p e r 100,000 i n h a b i t a n t s in Germany, 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 9 2
Figure 6: I n c a r c e r a t i o n r a t e p e r 100,000 i n h a b i t a n t s in Austria, 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 9 4
53
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T h a t d e c r e a s e is e s s e n t i a l l y d u e to the e s t a b l i s h m e n t of p a r t l y s u s p e n d e d s e n t e n c e s a n d the r e d u c t i o n of the eligibility d a t e for p a r o l e r e l e a s e from twot h i r d s of the s e n t e n c e to half. That e x t e n s i o n o f r e l e a s e on p a r o l e a n d the introd u c t i o n o f p a r t l y s u s p e n d e d s e n t e n c e did h a v e a s i g n i f i c a n t effect on p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s . C o u n c i l of E u r o p e statistics s h o w t h a t the total i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate w a s r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e until it fell from 96 p e r 100,000 i n h a b i t a n t s in F e b r u a r y 1988 to 77 in S e p t e m b e r of the s a m e y e a r (Kuhn, 1995a, p. 439, figure 9). This is m a i n l y b e c a u s e the law r e d u c i n g the p a r o l e eligibility d a t e c a m e into force on M a r c h 1, 1988. Nearly 1,500 p r i s o n e r s w e r e r e l e a s e d ( t h o s e w h o h a d s e r v e d m o r e t h a n half of t h e i r s e n t e n c e s b u t less t h a n t w o - t h i r d s ) . But the e x t e n s i o n of p a r o l e release s e e m s also to have h a d a p e r v e r s e effect: p a r o l e use has b e c o m e m o r e r e s t r i c t i v e ( B u n d e s r e g i e r u n g O s t e r r e i c h , 1990, p. 307; 1991, p. 322; 1992, p. 317; 1993, p. 246). Thus, the relative s t a b i l i t y - in s p i t e of s o m e f l u c t u a t i o n s in t h e i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate following its d r o p in 1988 s e e m s m a i n l y d u e to the i n t r o d u c t i o n of the p a r t l y s u s p e n d e d s e n t e n c e (Kuhn, 1993a, p. 141; 1995b, p. 186). In Portugal (figure 7) a new Penal Code c a m e into force on January 1, 1983. The n e w l e g i s l a t i o n - largely i n s p i r e d by t h e G e r m a n law - l i m i t e d t h e use of s h o r t t e r m i m p r i s o n m e n t a n d was s u p p o s e d to r e p l a c e m o s t s h o r t - t e r m s e n t e n c e s by o t h e r s a n c t i o n s , l~ T h e s e a m e n d m e n t s g e n e r a t e d an i n c r e a s e in i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates p e r 100,000 i n h a b i t a n t s from 53 to 96 b e t w e e n 1983 a n d 1986. Here again, the l i m i t a t i o n in the use of s h o r t t e r m s of i m p r i s o n m e n t did n o t r e d u c e the p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n b e c a u s e of an i n c r e a s e in t h e l e n g t h of the s a n c t i o n s (Lopes Rocha, 1987, p. 33). The 1986 r e d u c t i o n o c c u r r e d m a i n l y b e c a u s e of an a m n e s ty. ll T h e s t a b i l i t y of the overall i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate b e t w e e n 1986 a n d 1990 i n v o l v e d an offset b e t w e e n the i n c r e a s i n g rate of s e n t e n c e d o f f e n d e r s a n d a d e c r e a s i n g rate of p r e - t r i a l d e t a i n e e s . T h e l a t t e r is t h e result of the n e w Proced u r e Act w h i c h l i m i t e d use of p r e - t r i a l d e t e n t i o n . 12 In 1991, a f u r t h e r a m n e s t y 13 a f f e c t e d the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate b u t it c o n t i n u e d to grow after 1992 to b e c o m e o n e o f t h e h i g h e s t in W e s t e r n Europe. In t994, o n c e more, a n a m n e s t y 14 was e n a c t e d a n d the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate d e c r e a s e d .
10
For m o r e details a b o u t the new P o r t u g u e s e legislation, see Hi.inerfeld, 1983; Figueiredo Dias, 1993.
11
Law no. 16/86, June 11, 1986.
12
T h e articles a b o u t pre-trial d e t e n t i o n c a m e into force o n F e b r u a r y 7, 1987. B e c a u s e of a d i s s o l u t i o n o f the P o r t u g u e s e p a r l i a m e n t t h e rest of t h e law o n l y c a m e into force o n J a n u a r y 1, 1988 i n s t e a d of J u n e t, 1987 as scheduled; See Htinerf.eld, 1988. p. 1266; Prison Information Bulletin. no. 9, 1987, p. 28: Figueiredo Dias, 1992. p. 461.
13
Law no. 23191, July 4, 1991.
14
Law no. 1S/94, May 11, 1994.
Incarceration rates: Europeversus USA
55
Figure 7: Incarceration rate per 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 i n h a b i t a n t s in Portugal, 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 9 4
The few countries ~ taken into account here seem to demonstrate three things. 1 Western Europe incarceration rates are currently increasing, perhaps from a far lower base level than in the United States, and much less rapidly, but increasing. 2 Some of the European countries show clearly that prison overcrowding could be controlled. Incarceration rates are therefore not destined to increase. 3 Amnesties, as well as the substitution of short terms of imprisonment seem not to be effective measures for reducing prison populations in the longterm. The effect of long prison terms on the corrections system is thus much more important than the effect of short sentences (Pease and Sampson, 1977, p. 59; Fitzmaurice and Pease, 1982, p. 576; Young and Brown, 1993, pp. 17, 44; Ashworth, 1983, p. 335; Tournier, 1987, p. 548; Kuhn, 1994, p. 102; Tournier, 1994, p. 98; Snacken and Beyens, 1994, pp. 88-89; Kuhn, 1996a, p. 9). 15
The choice of the countries was m a d e primarily on the availability of the n e e d e d data and because of the interest for the analysis.
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The U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a It is c o m m o n k n o w l e d g e t h a t t h e US i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate is o n e of t h e h i g h e s t (if n o t the highest) in the world. It is even h i g h e r t h a n t h o s e in t h e f o r m e r Soviet U n i o n or S o u t h Africa. 16 But that was not t r u e t h i r t y years ago. The i n c a r c e r a tion rate was m u c h lower a n d relatively s t a b l e till t h e 1970s. The only e x c e p t i o n was an i n c r e a s e in the 1930s, w h i c h - as in S w i t z e r l a n d - was c e r t a i n l y d u e to the G r e a t D e p r e s s i o n g e n e r a t e d by the c o l l a p s e of t h e U.S. s t o c k m a r k e t (the Wall Street crash) in O c t o b e r 1929. But c o n t r a r y to the Swiss e x p e r i e n c e , the A m e r i c a n figure o b v i o u s l y d o e s not s u g g e s t t h a t t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m is less severe t h a n previously. A b o u t t w e n t y y e a r s ago t h e uS i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate s t a r t e d to rise s h a r p l y (figure 8). The n u m b e r of i n m a t e s in the nation's jails a n d p r i s o n s has m o r e t h a n t r i p l e d b e t w e e n 1978 (452,790 i n m a t e s ; see F l a n a g a n a n d McLeod, 1983, t a b l e 6.15; M a g u i r e et al, 1995, t a b l e 6.19) a n d 1994 (1,544,180 i n m a t e s ; see Maguire et al., 1995, t a b l e 6.12; Beck a n d Gilliard, 1995). A c c o r d i n g to t h e s p e c i a l i s t s that i n c r e a s e will c o n t i n u e . Even t h o u g h c r i m e rates have t e n d e d to d e c r e a s e slightly (FBI, 1995, p. 7; M c C o n n e l l Clark F o u n d a t i o n , 1995, pp. 18-19) p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s are n o t e x p e c t e d to d e c l i n e d u r i n g the next c o u p l e of years. The rising i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate a p p e a r s to be an i s s u e for w h i c h the n u m b e r s p a i n t a g r i m p i c t u r e while viable s o l u t i o n s a n d a l t e r n a t i v e s r e m a i n e l u s i v e or una d d r e s s e d . I n d e e d , the c u r r e n t t r e n d a m o n g law m a k e r s t o w a r d s t o u g h e r s e n t e n c i n g a n d h e i g h t e n e d law e n f o r c e m e n t p r o m i s e s to e x a c e r b a t e r a t h e r t h a n a l l e v i a t e the c o n d i t i o n s faced by c o r r e c t i o n s . If o n e a p p l i e s the a v e r a g e i n m a t e g r o w t h rate - w h i c h was 7.4 p e r c e n t b e t w e e n 1984 a n d 1994 - to the p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s in the future, it w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t the p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n will r e a c h 10 m i l l i o n in 2021, 20 m i l l i o n in 2030, 50 m i l l i o n in 2043, a n d that o n e will n o t have to wait m o r e t h a n a n o t h e r 70 y e a r s to see half of the A m e r i c a n p o p u l a t i o n sitting in a cell. 17 l o k i n g aside, this p r o j e c t i o n shows the p o o r h e a l t h of t h e A m e r i c a n c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m . A m o r e realistic w a y to m a k e s u c h a p r o j e c t i o n is to do a s u r v e y a m o n g the States. A 1995 s u r v e y s h o w e d that t h e n u m b e r o f i n m a t e s in s t a t e a n d federal
16
17
See table 1; Mauer, 1991, p. 5; Mauer, 1992, p. 4; Adler et al., 1996, p. 285. According to Mauer, 1994, p. 1, 'Russia has now s u r p a s s e d the United States to b e c o m e the world leader in its rate of incarceration, with 558 citizens per 100,000 p o p u l a t i o n in its prison system {..3 The U.S. rate of incarceration is 519 per 100,000, s e c o n d in the world'. But that Russian rate has been overtaken by the US in 1994 with its 574 i n m a t e s per 100,000 p o p u l a t i o n (Maguire et al., 1995, table 6.12; Beck and Gilliard, 1095). This calculation takes into account that the a n n u a l p o p u l a t i o n growth in the US is 0.8 per cent {population doubling time: 87 years); see Broderbund, 1993. If one would consider a stable population, half of it would already be incarcerated in 2056.
Incarceration rates: Europe versus USA
57
i n s t i t u t i o n s (the jails are not t a k e n into a c c o u n t ) will rise by over 200,000, or a b o u t 20 p e r cent, by 1998. By 2002 t h e n u m b e r of p r i s o n i n m a t e s is even e x p e c t e d to e x c e e d 1.4 million, a 33 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e over 1994 levels (Wees, 1996, p. 1). I n d i v i d u a l j u r i s d i c t i o n s are l o o k i n g at even m o r e d r a m a t i c i n c r e a s e s at local level. California e x p e c t s an i n c r e a s e of 86 p e r c e n t over the next six years, O r e g o n e x p e c t s a 102 p e r c e n t increase, Kentucky a 109 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e over the s a m e p e r i o d , a n d M i s s i s s i p p i e x p e c t s a n i n c r e a s e of 157 p e r c e n t over t h e c u r r e n t levels w i t h i n t h e p e r i o d . The p r o b l e m for analysts, however, is k n o w i n g h o w the rate o f g r o w t h will b e a f f e c t e d by r e c e n t or f u t u r e s t a t e a n d f e d e r a l l e g i s l a t i o n g e n e r a l l y a i m e d at i n c r e a s i n g the a m o u n t o f a c t u a l t i m e served, often referred to as ' t r u t h in s e n t e n c i n g ' , as well as s u c h w i d e l y a d o p t e d m e a s u r e s as p a r o l e a b o l i s h m e n t c o u p l e d with i n c r e a s e d law e n f o r c e m e n t . That e x p l a i n s why p r o j e c t i o n s are p e r i o d i c a l l y c o r r e c t e d u p w a r d s . 18
18
See for example Wees, 1996, p. 11, who shows that the projections for 1998 and 2000 increase between the 1995 and the 1996 surveys.
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research rot. 4 - 3
Table 2:
58
Incarceration rates across the United States, 1993 (state and federal institutions as well as jails) Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Vermont are excluded because their jail incarceration rates are missing
state
incarcera-
state
incarcera-
tion rate
state
tion rate
incarceration rate
Louisiana
899
New York
518
Washington
337
Georgia Texas Nevada
715 692 649
New Jersey Ohio Kentucky
493 470 454
Wisconsin South Dakota Oregon
322 303 291
South Carolina Florida Oklahoma
645 634 633
Arkansas Colorado North Carolina
444 439 434
Massachusetts Montana Nebraska
285 263 258
Arizona Alabama California Maryland Virginia Michigan Mississippi Tennessee
614 600 590 57] 571 546 545 532
Illinois Missouri Indiana New Mexico Pennsylvania Idaho Wyoming Kansas
418 404 395 395 376 369 343 337
New Hampshire Utah Iowa West Virginia Maine Minnesota North Dakota
257 254 231 195 173 173 127
Source: Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics 1994. tables 6.13 and 6.20
As b e t w e e n E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s , t h e i n c a r c e r a t i o n r a t e s v a r y b e t w e e n A m e r i c a n s t a t e s . At t h e e n d o f J u n e 1995 C a l i f o r n i a a n d T e x a s t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t e d
for
m o r e t h a n o n e in five i n m a t e s in t h e c o u n t r y ( P r o b a n d , 1995b, p. 4). T h e i n c a r ceration rates of state and federal prisoners sentenced y e a r r e a c h e d a r e c o r d 659 p e r 100,000 p o p u l a t i o n
to t e r m s l o n g e r t h a n o n e
i n Texas, 573 in L o u i s i a n a ,
5 3 6 i n O k l a h o m a , a n d 510 i n S o u t h C a r o l i n a . t9 T a b l e 2 s h o w s t h a t t h e S o u t h W e s t s t a t e s s e e m to b e m u c h m o r e p u n i t i v e t h a n t h e N o r t h - E a s t o n e s . B u t o n e h a s to b e c a r e f u l o f m a k i n g c o m p a r i s o n s have already abandoned
between states because some of them
t h e f i g h t to f i n d m o r e s p a c e w i t h i n t h e w a l l s o f t h e i r
institutions and have begun to transfer prisoners to other states. In t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s it is c o m m o n
to t a l k a b o u t w h a t t h i n g s c o s t . A l t h o u g h I
hate introducing money considerations
into criminal justice - which should be
l i n k e d m u c h m o r e to m o r a l a n d h u m a n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s
- the cited amounts
are
w o r t h m e n t i o n i n g : $ 26.8 b i l l i o n s 2~ a n n u a l l y (in o t h e r w o r d s : a b o u t $ 1 0 5 p e r
19 20
The June 1995 US average incarceration rate of state and federal prisoners sentenced to terms longer than on year was 403 per 100,000. According to Mauer, 1994, p. 2. For a state by state corrections costs, see Proband, 1995a, p. 1; Camp and Camp, 1995, p. 48. For an estimation of the French costs of crime, see Godefroy and Laffargue, 1995.
Incarceration rates: Europe versus USA
59
m a n , w o m a n , and child in the United States, e a c h year) are s p e n t on i n c a r c e r a tion alone. T h o s e n u m b e r s do not take into a c c o u n t t h e $ 450 billions ($1,800 p e r i n h a b i t a n t p e r year) of v i c t i m i z a t i o n c o s t s c a l c u l a t e d by the N a t i o n a l Instit u t e of Justice (1996). If o n e a d d s a b o u t S 15 billions for p a r o l e a n d p r o b a t i o n s y s t e m s zl ($ 60 per citizen), it c e r t a i n l y r e p r e s e n t s the world h i g h e s t ' c r i m e tax'! T h e s e few c o m m e n t s a b o u t the U n i t e d States s e e m to s h o w t h r e e things. 1 The US i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate is m u c h h i g h e r a n d is i n c r e a s i n g m u c h faster than the E u r o p e a n ones. 2 If a realistic and o b j e c t i v e p e r s o n looks at w h a t has h a p p e n e d in the recent p a s t with A m e r i c a n c o r r e c t i o n s a n d at t h e p r o j e c t i o n s for the future, his/ her c o n c l u s i o n will surely be that t h e r e is no o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e than an i m m i d i a t e a n d radical c h a n g e in the c r i m i n a l justice s y s t e m . 3 It s e e m s that s o m e states are less affected by high i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates t h a n others. The d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n s t a t e s are e n o r m o u s a n d can reach a o n e to six ratio. What makes the United States so different? I n c r e a s e s in c r i m e are often i n v o k e d to e x p l a i n i n c r e a s i n g p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s . Therefore, if o n e asks the A m e r i c a n p u b l i c why their i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate is a b o u t six t i m e s as high as the E u r o p e a n one, the a v e r a g e p e r s o n ' s a n s w e r will be: 'we have m a n y m o r e violent c r i m e s t h a n in E u r o p e : As a m a t t e r o f fact, it w o u l d a p p e a r logical in m a n y r e s p e c t s to a s s u m e that a high rate of i n c a r c e r a t i o n is a direct r e s p o n s e to high c r i m e rates. In r e c e n t year, t h o u g h , m a n y c r i m i n o l o g i s t s have c o n c l u d e d that i m p r i s o n m e n t rates are to a great d e g r e e a f u n c t i o n of c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e a n d social p o l i c i e s t h a t e i t h e r e n c o u r a g e or d i s c o u r a g e the use of i n c a r c e r a t i o n . A u t h o r s of a s u r v e y w h i c h looked at w h e t h e r i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates in six i n d u s t r i a l i s e d n a t i o n s c o u l d be e x p l a i n e d by n a t i o n a l c r i m e rates c o n c l u d e d that 'only a small m e a s u r e of the d i f f e r e n c e s in p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s b e t w e e n one j u r i s d i c t i o n a n d a n o t h e r or the c h a n g e s in p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h i n p a r t i c u l a r j u r i s d i c t i o n s s e e m to be r e l a t e d to c r i m e rates'. 22 Further, the 1989 a n d 1992 i n t e r n a t i o n a l c r i m e s u r v e y s (Van Dijk a n d Mayhew, 1992; M a y h e w a n d Van Dijk, 1995) d o c u m e n t e d that rates of p r o p e r t y c r i m e s a n d s o m e a s s a u l t i v e c r i m e s in the US are n o t significantly different from t h o s e in m a n y c o m p a r a b l e nations. The a s s u m p t i o n that c r i m e rates are s u b s t a n t i a l l y
21
According to the April 22, 1996 lnternet edition of the newspaper USA Today (Nation page), the
22
total costs of c r i m e (without police a n d c o u r t costs) are $ 500 billion ($ 500,000,000,000)! See Young a n d Brown, 1993, p. 33. T h e s t u d y c o v e r e d England a n d Wales, West G e r m a n y . France. Zealand, the N e t h e r l a n d s , a n d Sweden. In the s a m e s e n s e , s e e for e x a m p l e Morris, 1991. p. 343: Killias, 1991, p. 66. New
European Journal on C~im*nal Policy amd Research vol. 4-3
60
h i g h e r in t h e US than in o t h e r i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s is not t r u e for m o s t offences. T h e d a t a on c r i m e v i c t i m i z a t i o n overall, therefore, do not p r o v i d e an e x p l a n a t i o n for the high i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate in t h e United States. Even if the v i o l e n t c r i m e s (and p a r t i c u l a r l y the h o m i c i d e s ) s h o w a s h a r p e r d i s t i n c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e u s a n d most i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s - in large p a r t d u e to t h e role of f i r e a r m s in tJS c r i m e rates (e.g. Killias, 1990; 1993) - a n d if it r e m a i n s t h u s p o s s i b l e that c r i m e a c c o u n t s for p a r t of the d i f f e r e n c e in r a t e s of i n c a r c e r a t i o n . the m a g n i t u d e of that d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the [JS a n d o t h e r n a t i o n s is so great t h a t c r i m e rates can clearly not be the p r i m a r y factor b e h i n d the d i s p a r i t y (Mauer, 1994, p. 10). A n o t h e r w a y to e x p l o r e this issue is to i n v e s t i g a t e w h e t h e r the s e n t e n c i n g p o l i c i e s are h a r s h e r in the US t h a n in o t h e r n a t i o n s . I n d e p e n d ent of c r i m e rates, an i n c r e a s i n g i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate can result from i n c r e a s i n g n u m b e r s of p e r s o n s receiving c o n f i n e m e n t s e n t e n c e s or from l o n g e r s e n t e n c e s b e i n g i m p o s e d . In this respect, s o c i e t i e s differ from e a c h o t h e r a n d are in cons t a n t evolutiota. Severity of s a n c t i o n s a n d the n u m b e r of c o n v i c t e d p e r s o n s t h u s vary t h r o u g h t i m e a n d space. 23 Given that it is well k n o w n that the p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n p r o b l e m has less to d o with the n u m b e r of p e o p l e w h o are received into c u s t o d y than with the s e n t e n c e length given to t h o s e r e c e i v e d (Pease a n d S a m p s o n , 1977, p. 59; F i t z m a u r i c e a n d Pease, 1982, p. 576; A s h w o r t h , 1983, p. 335; Tournier, 1987, p. 548; Young a n d Brown, 1993, pp. 17, 44; Kuhn, 1994, p. 102; Tournier, 1994, p. 98; S n a c k e n a n d Beyens, 1994, pp. 88-89; Kuhn, 1996a, p. 9), t h e p u n i t i v e n e s s of a c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m h a s to be m e a s u r e d in t e r m s of t i m e a n d not in t e r m s of p e o p l e . In t h e U n i t e d States, 22.6 p e r cent of l a n u a r y 1, 1995 i n m a t e s were s e r v i n g a s e n t e n c e o f t w e n t y years or more, 24 the a v e r a g e length of s e n t e n c e for i n m a t e s a d m i t t e d in 1993 was 75.6 m o n t h s (6 y e a r s a n d 4 m o n t h s ) a n d the a v e r a g e l e n g t h of t i m e s e r v e d by i n m a t e s r e l e a s e d in 1993 was 26.0 m o n t h s (2 years and 2 m o n t h s ) , z5 At the s a m e t i m e in Europe, t h e a v e r a g e length of i m p r i s o n m e n t was b e t w e e n 11.4 m o n t h s in Portugal a n d 1.1 m o n t h in D e n m a r k (Council of E u r o p e , 1994). F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e n u m b e r of p e r s o n s s e n t e n c e d to an u n s u s p e n d e d p r i s o n t e r m p e r 100 c o n v i c t e d is m u c h h i g h e r in the US t h a n in the E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s (Killias et al., 1995, p. 13, t a b l e 1).
23
B l u m s t e i n a n d C~)hen's (1973) a n d B l u m s t e i n et al.'s (L9771 t h e o r y is in o p p o s i t i o n to this d y n a m i c m o d e l . F r o m an analysis of i n c a r c e r a t i n n rates in the US ( b e t w e e n 1930 a n d 1970), in C a n a d a ( b e t w e e n i880 a n d 19S9) a n d in N o r w a y ( b e t w e e n 1880 a n d 1964), they p o s t u l a t e that p u n i t i v e n e s s varies a r o u n d a relatively stable a v e r a g e a n d o n l y in a very limited way. O n the e m p i r i c a l level,
24 25
t h o u g h , this theory s e e m s not to be c o n v i n c i n g ; o n this m a t t e r , see Killias, 1991, p. 369. In a d d i t i o n to this rate 2.966 i n m a t e s were sentenced, to d e a t h ; see C a m p a n d C a m p , 1995. p. L8. C a m p a n d C a m p . 1994. p. 16. The a v e r a g e l e n g t h of s e n t e n c e for i n m a t e s a d m i t t e d in 1994 w a s 75 9 m o n t h s a n d the average length o f t i m e served by i n m a t e s released in 1994 w a s 2 7 0 m o n t h s : see C a m p a n d C a m p , 1995, p. 16.
Incarceratiun rates; Eurupe versus USA
6"~
There is no doubt that the American criminal justice system is much more punitive than the European systems. Even allowing for differences in crime rates, American sentencing severity (use of prison as a sentence and length of prison sentences) is much higher in the US than in Europe. 26 But why has the prison population sharply increased since the 1970s in the United States and lead to such a difference between American and European incarceration rates? In the late 1960s, Americans felt confident about their criminal justice system. An efficient system was in the making and there was enthusiasm about resocializing criminals. But a number of things went wrong as the 1970s began. Police corruption was demonstrated (Knapp, 1972), misconduct was shown to exist in the highest circles of law enforcement (CIA and FBI included) (Adler et al.. 1996, p. 14), and in June 1972, the offices of the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate Complex in Washington DC were burglarized, and it turned out that the highest person in the United States (i.e. President Nixon) had ordered the burglary. That strongly affected the level of confidence in the American authorities and opened the door to new policies. At the same time, the dramatic rise in crime rates at the end of the 1960s led some people to point to rehabilitation (i.e. reformation of an offender through a correctional intervention) as a failed policy that treated offenders too leniently and did nothing to deter them. A couple of researchers (Lipton et al., 1975) analyzed 231 studies conducted between 1945 and 1967 and aimed to evaluate the treatment of criminal and juvenile offenders. Their goal was to create a knowledge base on the effectiveness of correctional treatment. They showed that there was no convincing evidence that rehabilitation programmes have any impact on recidivism, institutional adjustment, vocational adjustment, educational achievement, drug and alcohol (re-)addiction, personality and attitude change, and community adjustment. Such a lack of evidence, however, does not mean that anyone has proved that rehabilitation does not work, but only that nobody proved that it does work. There is always the chance that methods not yet tested will show a beneficial effect. In an article entitled 'What Works?', Martinson (one of the mentioned researchers) nevertheless concluded that 'With a few and isolated exceptions, the rehabilitative efforts that have been reported so far have had no appreciable effect on recidivism' (Martinson, 1974, p. 25). 27 In short, the a n s w e r to the q u e s t i o n 'what works?' was ' n o t h i n g '
26 27
See also the study done by Frase, 1990, pp. 648-658. To be correct, it has to be said that initially Martinson was nol against rehabilitation, but against t h e fact that treatment systems are based on indefinite sentences and end up removing more and m o r e offenders from society for longer and longer periods of time. His idea was that prison produces the paradoxical result of increasing recidivism by removing the offender from society, however t e n d e r l y he w a s treated. See M a r t i n s o n . 1972.
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and the 'nothing works' idea was born! Such findings had a r e s o u n d i n g effect on practice and theory. They 'may have influenced more public p r o n o u n c e ments on correctional policy than any other writing in this c e n t u r y ' (Glaser, 1976, p. 179). Even though many authors who s u b s e q u e n t l y scrutinized Martinson's evaluations found them m e t h o d o l o g i c a l l y flawed, 28 and though Martinson himself later confirmed that some p r o g r a m m e s have had some success in curbing recidivism (Martinson, 1979), it was too late. As a result of that devastating analysis of rehabilitation, the t r e a t m e n t p h i l o s o p h y was discredited, p r o g r a m s were a b a n d o n e d , and the vacuum in corrections was filled by more punitive approaches. A new sentencing p h i l o s o p h y took over: Von Hirsch's 'just deserts'. That c o n t e m p o r a r y version of classical criminology - called neoclassical criminology - which e m p h a s i z e s d e t e r r e n c e and r e t r i b u t i o n with reduced e m p h a s i s on rehabilitation b e c a m e very p o p u l a r (e.g. Martin et al., 1990, p. 18). Determinate sentencing (strategy which m a n d a t e s a specified and fixed a m o u n t of time to be served for every offence category) s c h e m e s were built upon notions of classical thought (Schmalleger, 1996, p. 143). 29 in its m o d e r n guise, this type of classical thinking has taken the form of a 'just deserts' model of criminal sentencing, with a p a r t i c u l a r e m p h a s i s on both d e t e r r e n c e and retribution as the twin goals of criminal p u n i s h m e n t . 'Just deserts' refers to :he netic~ t~.at criminal offenders deserve tb, e p u n i s h m e n t they receive at the hand of the law, and that any p u n i s h m e n t which is i m p o s e d should be a p p r o p r i a t e to the type and gravity of crime c o m m i t t e d . 'lust deserts' theorists feel strongly that d e f e n d a n t s should be s e n t e n c e d on the basis of the crime they have c o m m i t t e d , rather than their social background. They are not insensitive to the value of education, but think that a defendant's ability to be (re-)educated should not influence the s e n t e n c i n g decision. They also dismiss rehabilitation on the basis of its irrelevance to the nature of the crime that was c o m m i t t e d and the culpability of the offender at the time of the crime. In short, the severity of the sentence should d e p e n d on what the d e f e n d a n t did rather than on what the s e n t e n c e r expects he will do if treated in a certain fashion (Von Hirsch, 1976; Singer, 1979). Such an a p p r o a c h may - to some extent - have been successful in minimizing disparities in sentences and in curbing judicial arbitrariness, but 'Justice is not 28
29
See for example Palmer. 1975; Klockars. 1975; Palmer. 1978: Cousineau and Plecas. 1982. p. 307. for w h o m some studies discussed by Lipton et ai.. 1975 are 'appaiiingty tow-quality research'. G e n d r e a u and Ross. 1987. p. 395, reviewed the offender rehabilitation literature for the period 1981-1987 and concluded that 'it is downright ridiculous to say "nothing w o r k s " . In the s a m e sense, see Garrett. 1984 and 1985: Lipsey. 1992. Three ideas extend well beyond the calculus of d e t e r m i n a t e sentencing: (1) criminal b e h a v i o u r is the result of free choice: (2] criminal b e h a v i o u r is r e w a r d i n g and crime holds a n u m b e r of attractions; and (3) criminal punishment is necessary for deterrence.
Incarceralion rates: Europe versus USA
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s i m p l y e q u a l i t y of p u n i s h m e n t s . To the c o n t r a r y , a s y s t e m w h i c h c r e a t e s a ven e e r of e q u a l i t y of s a n c t i o n s as a m e a n s for p r o t e c t i n g a social s t r u c t u r e b a s e d on i n e q u a l i t y is a m o c k e r y of justice' (Clear, L978, p. 44), e s p e c i a l l y as h a r s h e r p e n a l t i e s w o u l d never have o c c u r r e d w i t h o u t the 'just d e s e r t s ' a p p r o a c h . The l a t t e r can u n d e n i a b l y be b l a m e d for p r i s o n overcrowding. In t h e o r y t h e r e s h o u l d have b e e n s t r i n g e n t l i m i t a t i o n s on i n c a r c e r a t i o n as p u n i s h m e n t , but reflected in the m i r r o r of p u b l i c o p i n i o n , the a r g u m e n t s of the 'just d e s e r t s ' t h e o r i s t s have b e e n t r a n s f o r m e d into calls for punitive, r e p r e s s i v e reforms. The 'just d e s e r t ' t h e o r y thus widely o p e n e d the d o o r for d e t e r m i n a t e s e n t e n c i n g s t r u c t u r e s , for a b o l i t i o n of release on parole, 3~ for m a n d a t o r y m i n i m u m sentences, 31 a n d for s h a r p e r p o l i c i e s - n a m e d ' t r u t h in s e n t e n c i n g ' , 'get tough', etcetera - which result in an i n c r e a s e in the use a n d length of p r i s o n s e n t e n c e s . ~' It also gave a new life to o t h e r old i d e a s like ' i n c a p a c i t a t i o n '33 or 'three strikes a n d you're o u t '34 (or even 'two strikes a n d y o u ' r e in for life '3s) which refer exclusively to p h y s i c a l l y p r e v e n t i n g the o f f e n d e r from c o m m i t t i n g c r i m e s by r e m o v i n g him from g e n e r a l society a n d do not i n c l u d e any a d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s , like d e t e r r e n c e or r e h a b i l i t a t i o n . W h e t h e r or not such p r a c t i c e s i n c r e a s e p u b l i c safety is o p e n to d e b a t e . But few w o u l d d e n y that o n c e i m p l e m e n t e d t h e y h a d - a n d will still have in the future a p r o f o u n d effect on i n m a t e p o p u l a t i o n s as m o r e o f f e n d e r s r e m a i n inside longer. Conclusions If in fact s e n t e n c e length is a key v a r i a b l e in u n d e r s t a n d i n g relative rates of i n c a r c e r a t i o n , then the q u e s t i o n is w h y different n a t i o n s i m p o s e varying
30
A c c o r d i n g to N o r m a n d e a u . L995. p. 359. fifteen A m e r i c a n states a b o l i s h e d parole b e t w e e n 1976 a n d 1995.
31
All 50 States h a v e e s t a b l i s h e d m a n d a t o r y s e n t e n c i n g laws: see M c C o n n e l l Clark F o u n d a t i o n , 1995.
32
p. I9. ln the s a m e sense, s e e N o r m a n d e a u . 1995, p. 358.
33
S o m e a u t h o r s also talk abouL ' w a r e h o u s i n g ' or a b o u t ' L o c k ' e m u p a n d t h r o w a w a y the key' policy. A b o u t i n c a p a c i t a t i o n ' s revival, see W o l f g a n g et al., 1972: Wilson. 1975; Van d e n H a a g , [975: S h i n n a r a n d S h i n n a r , 1975. A b o u t critical research, see Van Dine et a l , L979; Cohen, 1983; Votl Hirsch. 1988: Kerner, 1989; Vill~. 1991.
34
' T h r e e strikes a n d y o u ' r e o u t ' laws are b a s e d o n the c o n c e p t of selective i n c a p a c i t a t i o n t a r g e t i n g of high risk, r e p e a t offenders. By the e n d of 1994.14 States a n d the Federal G o v e r n m e n t h a d a d o p t e d s o m e form of ' t h r e e strikes a n d y o u ' r e o u t ' law; see McConnell Clark F o u n d a t i o n , 1995, p. 20. In 1883, Von Liszt h a d a l r e a d y p r o p o s e d to definitely lock u p the c r i m i n a l s w h o w e r e c o n d e m n e d for
35
the third time. 'Three strikes a n d y o u ' r e o u t ' is also o n e of the b a s i c baseball rules. See for e x a m p l e G e o r g i a ' s law, w h i c h r e q u i r e s that p e r s o n s c o n v i c t e d for a s e c o n d violent c r i m e are s e n t e n c e d to life prison w i t h o u t parole; see S c h m a l l e g e r , 1996, p. 465.
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degrees of sentence length on offenders, it would be nice to be able to say that the responsible people for the American situation are Nixon (who failed to control his staff), Martinson (who was not able to explain his work) and Von Hirsch (who was not able to control the development of his 'just deserts' theory). It would also be great if one could say that Europe has neither a Nixon, nor a Martinson, nor a Von Hirsch 36 and, therefore, that it is not possible that the European prison populations will resemble those of the US in the future. But reality is not that simple! First, one could argue that Martinson's and Von Hirsch's ideas were not explanatory factors for the developments in the United States, but the results of social changes. Both of them were certainly influenced by the 1960s and the early 1970s. At that time there was no trend to increase the severity of sanctions. Initially Martinson was not against rehabilitation, but against the fact that treatment systems were based on indefinite sentences and ended up removing more and more offenders from society for longer and longer periods of time. His idea was that prison produces the paradoxical result of increasing recidivism by removing the offender from society, however tenderly he was treated (Martinson, 1972). And according to Von Hirsch's 'just deserts' theory, there should have been stringent limitations on incarceration as punishment and on the length of sentences (Von Hirsch, 1976, pp. 113-114). However, as their ideas were transformed into calls for punitive reforms, they failed to defend them strongly enough. They were not able to control the development of their approaches. Second, none of the three is directly responsible for legislative, judicial or prosecutorial changes which occurred between the 1970s and today and which have resulted in an increase in the use and length of prison sentences. And third, according to Young and Brown (1993, pp. 39-45), the view that variations in prison populations are explicable in terms of criminal justice policies is 'simplistic and largely unhelpful'. They argue that policies adopted to reduce the prison population often did not have the intended effect (that was for example the case for the abolition of short-term imprisonment), and that the pressures within the criminal justice system itself or within the wider socio-economic and political structure are much more important in the explanation of prison trends. According to them, the attitudes toward punishment are driven by a range of cultural factors that are deeply rooted in a society's history, values, and socio-economic structure. The greater the differentials in terms of income and other rewards and the greater the gaps between rich and poor in society, the more extreme the scale of punishment will be. 'Ultimately, effecting very
36 Whichis no longer true; Andrewyon Hirsch is now teaching in Cambridge. Great Britain.
Incarceration rates: Europe versus USA
65
s u b s t a n t i a l shifts in the use of i m p r i s o n m e n t (...) involves c h a n g i n g a range of s o c i o - c u l t u r a l attitudes a n d values that go well b e y o n d the t e c h n i c a l p e n o l o gical agenda'. This p o i n t of view is very interesting. It is effectively true that a t t i t u d e s towards p u n i s h m e n t are related to the cultural b a c k g r o u n d . Anglo-Saxon cultures seem to be more repressive t h a n o t h e r c u l t u r e s (Kuhn, 1993a, p. 90; 1993b, p. 287). But by saying that deep social c h a n g e s are the only way to work towards a general e v o l u t i o n of a t t i t u d e s and, thus, to d i m i n i s h p r i s o n p o p u l a t i o n s m e a n s that o n e would have to c h a n g e p u b l i c o p i n i o n 37 first a n d that the c r i m i n a l justice system would t h e n follow. But the existing c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n public o p i n i o n a n d severity of s a n c t i o n s could also be reversed. In o t h e r words, the severity of s a n c t i o n s may i n f l u e n c e p u b l i c o p i n i o n ; the latter may a d a p t itself to the delivered s a n c t i o n s (Killias, 1991, p. 384; 1995, p. 426; Kuhn, 1995a, p. 446). That's why I think one can really s h o r t e n the p r i s o n t e r m s (and c h a n g e p u b l i c o p i n i o n ) t h r o u g h c h a n g e s in c r i m i n a l justice policies (e.g. Blumstein, 1988; Ioyce, 1992). Thus, if the goal is to reduce the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rate, m e a n s m u s t be f o u n d to r e d u c e l o n g - t e r m i m p r i s o n m e n t . That could be tried by an e x t e n s i o n of parole release a n d the i n t r o d u c t i o n of p a r t l y - s u s p e n d e d s e n t e n c e s (as in Austria); it c o u l d also be d o n e by a c h a n g e in a t t i t u d e s a n d p u n i t i v e n e s s of jtzdges (as in G e r m a n y ) ; or it could be d o n e by a g e n e r a l r e d u c t i o n in the t e r m s of i m p r i s o n m e n t imposed. S e n t e n c e s w o u l d b e c o m e s h o r t e r a n d would weigh less on prison p o p u l a t i o n s , which w o u l d c o n s e q u e n t l y be reduced. 3a The differences b e t w e e n Europe a n d the U n i t e d States are largely ideological. T h e A m e r i c a n s t e n d to accept the p r o p o s i t i o n that h u m a n beings are possessed of free will a n d are c a p a b l e of m a k i n g r a t i o n a l choices. They are generally receptive to the idea that people s u c c e e d or fail as a result of their o w n initiative. That 'conservative' ideology views crime as the result of the b e h a v i o u r of i n d i v i d u a l s who freely elect to c o m m i t crimes, a n d who c a n therefore be held a c c o u n t a b l e for their b e h a v i o u r . In this light, p u n i s h m e n t o u g h t to be d e s i g n e d to increase the 'costs' of crime to such a n extent that r a t i o n a l l y acting i n d i v i d u a l s will no l o n g e r have i n c e n t i v e s to c o m m i t crimes. In Europe o n e views h u m a n b e h a v i o u r as m o r e t h a n just a f u n c t i o n of free will. 37
In the United States (1993), 61 per cent of the respondents of a surveywere in favour of punishment rather than rehabilitation of offenders, 86 per cent were in favour of a 'three strikes and you're out' law, 61 per cent were in favour of incapacitation, 73 per cent would approve of building more prisons so that longer sentences could be given to criminals, and for 8.5 per cent of them even if that meant an increase in taxes (Maguire et al., 1995,tables 2-44 to 2-49}. But it has also been shown that when the public is made aware of the possible range of punishments, its attitude toward punishment decreases (McConnellClark Foundation, 1995,p. 43). 38 See also Kuhn. 1994,p. 104.
66
European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research vol. 4-3
H u m a n b e h a v i o u r is i n f l u e n c e d by social c i r c u m s t a n c e s s u c h as e d u c a t i o n , p e e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s , a n d m a n y o t h e r variables. All t h o s e i n f l u e n c e s are s e e n as i m p o r t a n t factors in the p r o g r e s s i o n of e v e n t s that l e a d s o n e into c r i m e . Viewing c r i m e as a p r o d u c t of social, as well as i n d i v i d u a l , c i r c u m s t a n c e s i n c l i n e s a d h e r e n t s of that ' l i b e r a l ' i d e o l o g y to a c c e p t m o r e r e a d i l y r e s p o n s e s to c r i m e t h a t i n c l u d e r e h a b i l i t a t i v e m e a s u r e s . T h a t i n t e r e s t in r e h a b i l i t a t i o n reflects t h e m o r a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g that if i n d i v i d u a l s c a n n o t be h e l d solely r e s p o n s i b l e for w h a t t h e y b e c o m e a n d w h a t t h e y do, s o c i e t y h a s an o b l i g a t i o n to try to c o r r e c t the i n f l u e n c e s or the c o n d i t i o n s w h i c h m a y h a v e led an i n d i v i d u a l into crime. 39 In fact, t h e b i g g e s t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the U n i t e d States a n d Europe, is t h a t an A m e r i c a n o f f e n d e r can a c t u a l l y be sent to p r i s o n for his w h o l e life, w h e r e a s in E u r o p e the life s e n t e n c e w i t h o u t p a r o l e is u n k n o w n . The E u r o p e a n c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m s gives a c h a n c e to a l m o s t e v e r y o n e . Every i n m a t e is s u p p o s e d to be r e l e a s e d o n e day. E u r o p e t h u s c a n n o t afford to a b a n d o n the i d e a s of r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n d i n s t i t u t i o n a l t r e a t m e n t . T h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of a real life s e n t e n c e (like in F r a n c e for s o m e sexual offenders) is t h e r e f o r e very d a n g e r o u s . It is the first s t e p in an i n c a p a c i t a t i v e s y s t e m a n d will p r o b a b l y lead to a g e n e r a l i n c r e a s e in t h e t e r m s of i m p r i s o n m e n t i m p o s e d . T h e p u b l i c will k n o w it exists a n d ask real life s e n t e n c e s for o t h e r t y p e s of o f f e n d e r s . E u r o p e has to w i t h s t a n d the A m e r i c a n ' e x a m p l e ' ! However, E u r o p e a n c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e has g o n e its own way a n d even if s o m e r e t r i b u t i v e t e m p t a t i o n s exist ( e s p e c i a l l y in Great Britain; Morgan, 1994), it is i m p r o b a b l e t h a t it will b e c o m e like the US in the future. The l a t t e r has given t h e m a too b a d e x a m p l e of w h a t a failure c a n l o o k like. In o t h e r words, b e c a u s e of t h e i r s y s t e m s E u r o p e a n s have to be u t i l i t a r i a n s , w h e r e a s the A m e r i c a n s y s t e m allows o n e to b e retributivist. Let us h o p e that t h e E u r o p e a n u t i l i t a r i a n i s m will not o n l y survive in Europe, b u t also c o m e to life a g a i n in the U n i t e d States. It is n o t o n l y a u n i q u e way to r e d u c e the i n c a r c e r a t i o n rates, it is also t h e only way to h a v e a fair a n d j u s t c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e system.
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