Nonrenewable Resources, Vol. 5, No. 1, 1996

Editorial

Is Resource Analysis a Science? The question is often asked, particularly when the International Association for Mathematical Geology and this journal, N o n r e n e w a b l e Resources, are mentioned, "Is resource analysis a science?" Certainly the process of analyzing or assessing nonrenewable resources involves science, and, thus, it is a scientific activity. Production of data used in the assessment of nonrenewable resources commands the attention, time, and effort of many scientists, most of whom have undisputed credentials in acknowledged scientific disciplines. Questions that concern nonrenewable resources are taking up an increasing portion of the debate about land use, environmental protection, and resource adequacy, The professionalization of the field of resource analysis--indicated, in part, by the existence of this journal--suggests that the field is gaining recognition as a legitimate scientific discipline such as geology, geophysics, or geochemistry. However, let us return to the original question--Is resource analysis a science? In spite of the fact that the analysis of resources involves science, it is clearly different in several important aspects from the traditional scientific disciplines. Such disciplines tend to be intensive in the sense that the areas covered are divided up into smaller and smaller units where inquiry has the greatest probability of providing definitive answers. Thus, disciplines tend to be divided into subdisciplines, and these, further divided into specialties. Success is achieved by focusing investigative power on a narrow range of clearly enunciated questions, which are all too often not understood by those outside of the particular speciality. Science uses the "scientific method" as an investigative tool, whereby experimental observations are interpreted as supporting or failing to support welldefined hypothetical alternatives. Operating in these ways (defining the area of interest and using the scientific method), science has enjoyed a premier status, particularly over the past century. Resource analysis can be neither intensive nor selective in the way of traditional science. It must deal with questions as they arise without regard to the discipline or to the quality and completeness of the data that are available. Resource assessments are pro-

duced for a particular purpose. Their purpose is to aid in the decision making process, which is an essential feature of an organized society. Ideally, resource assessments should be helpful in decision making at the local, state, national, and international levels of organization. Resource assessments provide an interface between science and the society that created them and looks to them for advice. Resource analysis is, therefore, not a science. It cannot demand the certainty and completeness of science. It must produce results because decisions will be made, w i t h or without its input. The quality of societal decisions will be influenced by the quality of the resource data that goes into them, and the longterm success of a society is determined by the quality of its decisions. Thus, resource analysis is an important activity that depends on science and has an important stake in receiving the input of good science. That science is of variable quality is well known. Fortunately, within the scientific community, there are quality-control mechanisms that are usually effective, though time-consuming, in the long run. Such qualitycontrol procedures are much less developed for resource analysis, and this represents an important problem with which we must deal. Selecting problems for which experimental data can provide meaningful information and focusing on them are part of the successful strategy of science. In resource analysis, however, this is not always possible. If resource analysis is not a traditional scientific discipline, then why this journal? The point is that resource assessments will be made. If decisions, based in part on these assessments, are to be optimized, then they must be as impartial and as accurate as it is possible to make them. Resource assessments are a part of the larger societal concern about land use, environmental protection, and resource adequacy that require decisions to be made in the face of risk and uncertainty. N o n r e n e w a b l e R e s o u r c e s can help by providing better communication among those engaged in these activities. Policymakers need a better insight into the various aspects of nonrenewable resources and an awareness of their quantitative aspects. Resource analysts need a better appreciation of the end use of

096 I-1444/900300-0003509.50/1 9 1996 lmernational Association for Mathematical

Geology

McCammon

their product in the formulation of public policy and the way their particular discipline interacts with others to produce a coherent statement about the impacts of various alternatives for courses of societal actions. Communication also must be provided across international boundaries. Perspectives on the course of societal actions as regards nonrenewable resources are different in different countries--much can be learned by exposure to these differing points of view. Of particular importance is the consideration of the orientation of nations at different stages of their economic development.

The aim of Nonrenewable Resources is to focus on the communication of results obtained in resource analysis and to help those actively involved in the scientific, technical, and managerial aspects of nonrenewable resources at the local, state, national, and international levels. This aim is consistent with that of the International Association for Mathematical Geology--to promote international cooperation in the application and use of mathematics and statistics in geological research and technology. Richard B. McCammon

Editor-in-Chief