Lithiummaterial future

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Lithium, the lightest metal, has recently been taking on increased importance in a number of industrial applications, prompting the Federal Economics Ministry to commission the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (German initials: BGR) and the German Institute for Economic Research to analyse the world market for lithium and to assess its future development. This report summarizes the main points of the study i)

(share in 1975:69 per cent, 1986:48 per cent). Other major producers in 1986 were the USSR (t7 per cent) and, with a share in world output of just under I 1 per cent each, Chile and China. This means that nearly 87 per cent of world production is concentrated on only four countries. Mining activity in the producer countries is also highly concentrated: the entire output in Australia, Chile and Zimbabwe is being produced by one company from one mine respectively° In the United States production is divided between two companies working three major deposits. In 1986 about a third of the lithium produced in the Western world came from salt deposits (alkali flats) (55 per cent from the United States, 45 per cent from Chile) and two thirds from pegmatites (about 90 per cent from spodumene concentrates)° Since the cost of producing lithium from salt deposits (alkali flats) (in the form of lithium carbonate) is much lower than from Lithium concentrates (pegmathes), the share of salt deposits (alkali flats) will continue to rise.

Supply of lithium Out of the total of 150 lithium-bearing minerals, it is pegmatire deposits and special terrestrial salt deposits (alkali fiats) on which mining activity is increasingly being concentrated. According to BGR studies, measured and indicated lithium reserves in these deposits amount to 1.1 million tonnes. Some 83 per cent of these reserves belong to just four countries (Australia 28 per cent, United States 25 per cent, Chile 18 per cent, USSR 12 per cent). Nearly three quarters of the reserves in the Western countries (0.9 million tonnes) occur in pegmarites, the rest in salt deposits (alkali fiats). The bulk (87 per cent) of the lithium in salt deposits (alkali fiats) is in Chile. World mining output of lithium increased from 4,900 tonnes in 1975 to its peak to date of just over 8,000 tonnes in 1985; in 1986 it declined slightly, to just under 7,900 tonnes. During this period the biggest producer was the United States Table 1 L i t h i u m mining by reglon Share in % 1975 United States USSR Chile China Zimbabwe

Australia Other Countries

World (in tonnes Li)

1985

1986

69.4 20.4 5.0 0.3 4.9

52.1 16.8 10.5 8.7 8.6

48.3 17.1 10.8 10.8 7.9

4.5

4.5

0.8

1.0

100.0

100.0

4913

8058

100.0 7879

Source: Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hanover, and German Institute for Economic Research, Bedin: SuppLy and Demand for Mineral Raw Materials. Volume XXI: Lithium. Berlin/Hanover 1988.

Applications and consumption Lithium-bearing brine and the bulk of the ore concentrates are used to produce lithium carbonate, which has a market share of 80 per cent. Just under 37 per cent of the carbonate in the western world is used in the glass and ceramics industry and about 19 per cent in aluminium smelters. A further 24 per cent is made into lithium hydroxide and the rest into lithium chloride, other sails, lithium meat and other compounds. Since the 1970s lithium salts have been used in many aluminium smelters the world over as an additive in fused mass electrolysis to bring down working temperatures and hence to reduce input and specific electricity consumption. They can also reduce emissions of fluorine, which pollute the environmenL But the processis not widely used because when energy prices are low it is not economic, and recently developed eIectrolysis processes use energy more efficientlywithout the addition of lithium. Worldwide, about 8,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year(equivalent to about 1,500 tonnes of lithium) are used in aluminium smelters. The glass, ceramics and enameI industry uses both ore concentrates with a low iron content and lithium carbonate to reduce melting point, viscosity and expansion coefficient. In glass ceramics production, an important application, the addition of lithium produces materials with virtually no expansion over a wide range of temperatures, a property which makes them suitable, for example, for hotplates, oven inspection panels, fireproofglasses and mirror bases for giant telescopes. Another important application is special glass containing Lithium for use in black-and-white cathode ray tubes (e.g, television tubes) and phototropic spectacle lenses. Recently there has also been an increase in the use of cheap ore concentrates in mass glass production, particularly for making thinner and stronger hollow glassware. A further traditional application for ore concentrates and lithium carbonate is enamel - mainly for white household goods. Significant quantities ofpetalite ore concentrates have been used for over ten years in special continuous casting powders for the steel industry. In quantitative terms, lithium hydroxide is the most impor-

Table 2 Worlld lithium consumption 1975-1985 and forecast to 2000 Share in %

Consum~ionintonnes Li 1975

1985

1990

1995

2000

1975

1985

2000

67 62 510 688 153.6 163 165.1 250 102 115 59 68 64 64 1122 1409

81 654 189 269 129 78 76 1476

91 697 206 302 141 89 84 1610

101 740 223 334 153 100 93 1744

0.8 7.2 2.5 3.0 1.9 3.0 1.2 19.7

0.9 10.0 2.4 3.6 1.7 1.0 0.9 20.4

1.0 7.2 2.2 3.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 17,0

13.6 1.2 I4.8

18.2 2.3 20,5

1980

Belgium/Luxembourg West Germany France Britain Italy Netherlands Rest of Europe Europe

39 331 116 139 90 136 55 905

Japan RestofAsia

256 10 266

469 62 531

938 81 1019

1205 142 1347

1534 190 1724

1862 239 2101

5.6 0.2 5.8

79 115 1990 80 2264

49 235 1950 324 2557

I10 290 1760 176 2336

13t 384 1730 275 2520

160 468 1850 299 2777

189 553 2030 321 3093

t .7

1.6

1.8

2,5 43.2 1.7 49.1

4.2 25.5 2.6 33.9

5.4 19.8 3.1 30.2

86

238

204

256

295

336

1.9

3.0

3.3

3521

4448

4968

5599

6406

7274

76.4

72.0

71.0

836 250 1086

1113 334 1447

1350 584 1934

1601 578 2179

1882 693 2575

2163 808 2971

18.1 5.4 23.6

19.6 8.5 28.0

21.1 7.9 29.0

4607

5894

6902

7778

8981

10245

100.0

I00.0

100.0

256

485

96I

1366

1498

162I

4863

6379

7863

9144

10479

11866

Asia Brazil Canada United States Restof America America Africa, Australia, others Western world USSR China State-trading countries World (Li in compounds) Direct use of ores and concentrates ~ World total 1} Excluding state-trading countries. Source: as table 1

rant lithium compound after lithium carbonate. Most of it (90 per cent) is used in the production of lubricating greases, which in addition to their Iubricating oii content orS0 to 95 per cent usually contain alkali or alkali-metai saponification agents. Lithium greases can be used for any purpose because of their tolerance of a wide range of temperatures and their excellent water resistance. In a number of industrial countries they already have a share of 60 per cent and more of total production of lubricating greases, in Japan as much as 85 per cent. Very few statistics are available on the production of Iubricoting greases, which in fact makes up only a small segment of the total market for lubricants. But an educated guess on the basis of one-off data and trade figures for lithium hydroxide would be that consumption for making lubricating greases in the Western world amounts to about 1,000 tonnes a year.

The chemical industry" too is a sizeable customer for lithium, which in the form of butyl lithium (C 4 H9 Li) acts as a catalyser in a number of processes, particularly in the producLion of synthetic rubber, which accounts far more than two thirds of total rubber output and is used mainly (60 per con0 for tyres. The use of butyltithium, or of other catalyzers, makes it possible to endow some types of rubber with virtually the same physical characteristics as natural rubber. The Western world produces at least 700 tonnes of butyllithium a year, containing over 75 tonnes of lithium; however, the process requires the use of 190 tonnes of lithium metal in atl. West Germany has a share of about one third of this. The pharmaceutical industry has also been using a significant amount of lithium since the accidental discovery in animal experiments of its sedative effect. In human medicine,

lithium preparations have been in use for over ten years for the prevention of manic-depressive psychoses and for the treatment of acute manias (addictions, obsessions). The Western world probably produces and consumes about 250 to 300 tonnes of different lithium salts a year for this purpose, of which Western Europe alone accounts for about 100 tonnes with a lithium content of about 20 tonnes. In West Germany lithium therapy is less widespread than in some other Western European countries. A certain amount of it is also used in the production of a painkiller. The active ingredients include nearly 15 per cent of lithium citrate, annual consumption of which amounts to 10 to 15 tormes, equivalent to about 1 tonne of lithium. Lithium metal itself is so far being used only on a minor scale. Metallurgical uses of lithium include aluminium and magnesium-lithium alloys as well as de-oxydation and desulphurization agents in the special steel and copper industries. Since the beginning of the 1970s the metal has been in increasing use in lithium batteries. In 1983 two firms (Alcoa and British Alcan) announced new atuminium-litkium-atloys for the aircraft industry, since even then there was a danger that fibre compound materials would outclass aluminium,the classical aircraft material. Aluminium-lithium alloys with a lithium content of 1.7 to 2.8 per cent are up to 12 per cent lighter and I0 per cent stronger than traditional aluminium alloys. This provides scope for significant weight reductions, which the civil aviation industry in particular is anxious to achieve for economic reasons. But the commercial use of these materials has so far been greatly delayed by the problems of putting products with a guaranteed performance on the market as quickly as possible. Primary, i.e., non-rechargeable, dry batteries are another important application for Iithium. Lithium batteries have been in use for military purposes since 1970, while their civilian use began in 1973/74. Thanks to its chemical and physical attributes, lithium is an excellent material for anodes. Lithium batteries can be operated and stored at extreme temperatures, have a low rate of automatic discharge (less than 1 per cent a year) and a long life and are environmentally acceptable. They are used in industry (e.g, electronic storage, watches and clocks etc), in military technology (signalling and emergency equipment) and in medicine (heart pacemakers). Consumption by country Consumption of lithium in the form of chemical compounds rose from 4,600 tonnes in 1975 to 6,900 in 1985, an average growth of 4 per cent a year. The United States remain the dominant consumer, even though their share of world consumption has declined markedly, from 43 per cent in 1975 to just under 26 per cent in 1985. The next biggest consumer is the USSR, with a share rising slightly from 18 to just under 20 per cent over the same period. The consumption figure for the USSR includes exports to other state-trading countries. Japan's share in the worldwide demand for lithium compounds rose from just under 6 per cent in 1975 to nearly 14 per cent in 1985, with consumption growing at an average rate of

nearly 14 per cent a year. In West Germany, the fourth largest consumer, lithium consumption increased at an above-average rate of just under 8 per cent a year; in 1985 the share of world consumption was 10 per cent. China came fifth, with a share of over 8 per cent in 1985 (1975:5 per cent). However, this figure, tike that for the USSR, is probably inflated. Lithium is also used directly as an ore concentrate. But virtually no figures are available on this application. Older foreign trade statistics, industrial statistics and production figures for the various ores suggest that between 1975 and 1985 the direct use of spodumene and petalite concentrates in Western Europe, Japan, Brazil and the United States rose from about 15,000 to 40,000 tonnes, with a lithium content of 250 and 1,000 tonnes respectively. In the past few years consumption has risen markedly because of the increased use of concentrates, particularly in the Japanese glass industry, which has substituted itfor the expensive lithium carbonate. In some EC countries too the consumption of concentrates has gone up. World lithium consumption, including lithium compounds, increased from just under 4,900 tonnes in 1975 to nearly 7,900 tonnes in 1985, an average of about 5 per cent a year. Current market trends and future consumption Recorded consumption of lithium in compounds in the Westem world in 1985 was just under 5,000 tonnes. In 1986 carbonate consumption is said to have declined to a lithium content of about 4,700 tonnes because of lower output from aluminium smelters and increased substitution by ore concentrates in the glass industry. According to industry estimates, the subsequent strong recovery in aluminium production boosted carbonate consumption in 1987 to just under 4,900 tonnes. Western consumption in 1988 is likely to have at least matched that figure. Future consumption of lithium carbonate in the aluminium industry will be affected by worldwide structural changes in this sector, since smelters operating under unfavourable conditions (e.g., high electricity prices) are incmasingly being replaced by new plant in other countries which are often run withoutexpensivelithium additives. So lithium consumption in the aluminium industry is likely to grow only slowly up to the end of the century (by about 1.5 per cent a year). By contrast, lithium consumption in the glass industry and the ceramics industry, e.g., for glass ceramics, special glass and enamel sinters, as well as for casting powders, will rise significantly. However, lithium carbonate is likely to be increasingly replaced by ore concentrates (spodumene). A completely new application for tow-grade and cheap spodumene ores appears to be opening up in the container glass industry, but the size of this market cannotbe gauged yet. In the industrial countries lithium consumption for making lubricating greases will probably stagnate, or at best rise marginally, mainly because of the growing use of plastics and the advance of non-soap fats as well as the improved use being made of lubricating greases, including permanent lubrication. But growing demand in threshold countries and other developing countries will mean a slight rise in lithium consumption in this sector as well.

Aluminium-lithium materials are currently being offered by the companies Alcoa, Kaiser and Reynolds (all USA) as well as by British Alcan (Britain) and C6gddur Ptchiney (France). The aircraft industry had expected to be able to obtain appreciable quantities of intermediate products from series production, but was disappointed. Efforts to put this material on an economic basis are being frustrated by un~Ived recycling problems and by a number of open questions about its mechanical properties. Aluminium-lithium is currently being introduced as sheet metal in experimental cells of the new Airbus A 340 and for frames in the McDonnell Douglas MD 11. Demand for aluminium-lithium - particularly for civilian aircraft - is not expected to leap until 1993/95. Between now and the year 2000 lithium consumption for aluminium-lithium alloys in the Western world is expected to rise to 850 tonnes a year. Lithium batteries are already being produced by 39 firms in 41 locations in the Western world. Future sales will be boosted by their penetration of the consumer market. Examples include pocket calculators, watches and clocks, cameras, radios, toys and "intelligent credit cards". But larger types of battery (emergency signalling and signal technology) and ceils to provide memory back up for electronic data storage wilt also gain in importance. Military technology too witl remain an important customer for lithium batteries. In the period to 1995, worldwide consumption of lithium metal for primary batteries is likely to rise from 80 tonnes (1986) to 280 tonnes, an annual rise of 15 per cent. If and when rechargeable batteries (secondary systems) are introduced to the market, these quantities will be considerably exceeded. Total consumption of lithium compounds is likely to rise from about 6,900 tonnes in 1985 to 7,800 tonnes in 1990,

9,000 tonnes in 1995 and I0,200 tonnes in 2000. There will be no major changes in the regional pattern during this period. By the year 2000 the Western world's share will still be much the same as now, at 71 per cent. The United States (at present still the biggest consumer country with a share of just under 26 per cent) and the USSR will each have a share of about 20 per cent of total consumption, followed by Japan with 18 per ccnt. China (8 per cent) and West Germany (7 per cent) will follow at some distance and in a different order. Assuming no changes in the pattern of use of ore concentrates and carbonate in the manufacture of glass, ceramics and casting powders, the Western world's direct consumption of concentrates is likely to rise from aN)ut 960 tonnes of lithium content in 1985 to just over 1,600 tonnes by the year 2000, so total world lithium consumption will go up from just under 7,900 tonnes (1985) to about 11,900 tonnes (2000), i.e., an average annual increase of just under 3 per cent. However, rising carbonate prices are likely to push up direct concentrate consumption. In the bulk glass industry an additional market for low-grade spodumene ores may develop, but it is too earl?, to forecast its volume.

Peter Eggert, Joachim Priem, Eberkard Wettig Note ~ Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hanover, and German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin: Supply and Demand for Mineral Raw Materials. Volume XXI: Lithium. Berlin/Hanover 1988.