ISSN 01476882, Scientific and Technical Information Processing, 2015, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 205–210. © Allerton Press, Inc., 2015. Original Russian Text © O.V. Syuntyurenko, 2015, published in NauchnoTechnicheskaya Informatsiya, Seriya 1, 2015, No. 10, pp. 1–7.
Network Technologies for Information Warfare and Manipulation of Public Opinion O. V. Syuntyurenko AllRussia Institute of Scientific and Technological Information, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia email:
[email protected] Received April 17, 2015
Abstract—This paper explores the impact of new information technologies on the development of social communication and social systems. The properties and features of the modern information environment are analyzed. The factors and technologies of information warfare and confrontation are investigated. The role of information communication technologies in the operation of socialnetwork movements is demonstrated. The means and methods of the mass media, social networks, and destructive network technologies that are applied to manipulate group behavior and to transform public opinion are exposed. The potential of socio dynamics as a new instrument of targeted impact on social systems is explored. Possible risks and threats that face the development of telecommunication systems and networks are assessed. Conclusions and relevant activities are formulated to prevent the rise of information confrontations and to mitigate hidden impacts and threats to the country’s socialeconomic, scientific, and technological development. Keywords: information environment, information technology, media viruses of social communication, super computing, big data, information security, social networks, telecommunications infrastructure, sociodynam ics, media, web traffic, information sovereignty, risks, behaviorism, cognitive computing, information con frontation DOI: 10.3103/S014768821504005X
INTRODUCTION Information has become one of the main economic resources and structural social factors that shape various forms of economic activity, as well as the kinds and types of industrial production, and social relationships. Information methods and technologies deeply penetrate practically all spheres of human activity. Computerization and the convergence of computer, telecommunication, and multimedia technology bring civilization to a new level of development. At the same time, the digitalization of society engenders multiple new alarming problems in the social sphere. The increasing use of information technology significantly affects the economic and social processes that change the relationship between government and citizens, entails new unconventional problems (e.g., political manipulation over the Internet), and marks the rise of “computerized politics, economy, and culture.” The rapid development of information and communica tion technologies, expansion of the networkinforma tion environment, original interactivity of the Inter net, and the rise of socalled social networks pose additional risks and threats to social stability and secu rity at the national and international level. The global network has become a battlefield of information warfare. The main (and ultimate) goal of information warfare is to develop and use in practice
various synthetic technologies in order to manage group and mass opinion in rival (opponent) countries. Information not only reflects reality, it can also create a new reality that did not previously exist. The model of reality can push reality itself in a different direction, for example, in the financial field, as illustrated in the book by George Soros called The Crisis of Global Cap italism. Information warfare has become a war of meaning. In this context, the role of social sciences is growing. The development of the Internet and net work technologies, as well as of a continuum of new technologies (cognitive computing, cognitive psychol ogy, sociodynamics, and behaviorism) underpin the new role of society in the new geopolitics. The civil society exercises internal pressure on the state’s for eign policy and shapes the behavior of the elites from the bottom up. The internal behavior of the civil soci ety has become an instrumental factor, which can be influenced externally, thereby steering the interna tional policy of the state. The leading role in this pro cess is played by the networks that are created based on purely sociological phenomena, such as social actions and social interactions. New Phenomena of the New Information Environment The analysis of network and digital media, as well as media and social communication, allows one to
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highlight the key features (phenomena) of the modern global information space: • The extreme growth of the global volume of infor mation; • The rapid growth of the global telecommunica tions network (according to Cisco, the number of IP addresses will exceed 50 billion by 2020); • The rise of the cross border Internet, high levels of anonymity and tracelessness in the implementation of potential threats and unauthorized actions, challeng ing control over the network, and the growing rele vance of information sovereignty problems; • A steady growth of computer crime and the distri bution of promotional materials by criminal organiza tions; • The rise of conscientious and network wars and the growing use of social networking and media for the purpose of information warfare; • The expansion of social communications, the growth of social network movements, and the growing role of social media in the organization of “color” rev olutions; • The rise and spread of alternative, socalled digi tal currencies such as Bitcoin; • The replacement of information deficit by a defi cit of attention in the social sphere in the context of media and social media development given the abun dancy of information, the decreasing role of facts and the increasing importance of interpretation, which leads to the rise of transmedia; • Lack of effective international regulations and a growing digital divide. Postindustrial technologies focus on the develop ment of communications and data transfer, where the network (in its real and virtual configuration) is the key element and the media for information dissemination. The network is a polycentric nonhierarchical infor mation space. The information space of the 21st cen tury is characteristic of the possibility to produce, store, transmit, and process data in any amount and at great speed. The postindustrial society is also charac terized by the fact that the amount of information has reached such a stage that no one is able to either absorb it or even to navigate through it. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC), the global vol ume of information is doubling every 2 years. Accord ing to Cisco, by early 2013 mobile data traffic world wide reached approximately 900 petabytes (one petabyte is equal to the 15th power of 10 bytes) per month (by 2016 the share of mobile Internet users will reach about 48%). By 2016, the annual global IP traf fic will reach 1.3 zettabytes (one zettabytes is equal to a billion gigabytes). In addition, favorable conditions seem to be deliberately created in order to continu ously increase the information flow, so that the ability to assimilate and critically reflect on the information by each individual is reduced accordingly. Impor
tantly, the lack of information has been replaced by an attention deficit given the large volumes of informa tion. At present, it is necessary to control the attention of the mass audience and to focus it on the required objects and situations for as long as possible. Public opinion is rather inertial; therefore, the campaigns that are aimed at changing it are usually time and resource intensive, particularly in those cases where there is at least some minimum resistance to such changes. The modern Internet has two dimensions: techni cal and humanitarian. Developed countries are exposed to hundreds of technological attacks daily; however, in most cases such attacks are limited to either hacking, or technical or economic espionage. In 2014, 75 million attacks against the official websites of Russian authorities were suppressed. In addition, more than 25000 web resources containing publica tions that violate the law were identified. More than 1000 extremist sites have ceased their work. The humanitarian aspect of the Internet is related to social media, which covers a large segment of the (primarily uncensorable) information space. The role of the media in the modern world is continuously growing. Media has become the instrument of public adminis tration on the part of the authorities and the instru ment of pressure exercised by the opposition on the government. The Internet facilitates social protests and anonymizes the expression of opinion and the coordination of collective action, which can lead to a domino effect, as demonstrated by the socalled “vel vet” and “color” revolutions. Network confrontation is performed at the infor mation level, that is, the level of meanings and ideas, by using information technology, nongovernmental organizations, the blogger community, journalists, politicians, and the media. This is a permanent, mul tilevel process aimed at the development of certain behavior patterns (group and mass) and the target adjustment of the decisionmaking system. Both external and internal forces try to influence the deci sionmaking system. More specifically, this process takes the form of influence on the individual or mass opinion. The media effectively influences the change and transformation of types of image identification and authentification. This is particularly the case for television, which is the most influential type of media in Russia; it shapes the views of its audience. Televi sion as an instrument of control and power has the task to interpret reality (the brighter the media picture is, the more truthful and correct the memorable event is), relieve stress, distract, and entertain. Otherwise, the minds of most people would be in chaos. During the Industrial Revolution in England, the consumption of gin (and similarly the consumption of chocolate dur ing the Great Depression in the United States) increased; thus gin was a stressrelief method. Today’s version of this approach is the consumption of televi sion products. In this context, the aforementioned
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phenomenon of transmedia, where the topic is distrib uted across different platforms to achieve a multiplat form storytelling, should be noted. This instrument is important, as different people consult various infor mation and news resources. All possible means, including the Internet and the media, are used for both political and commercial advertising purposes. Video games, which also have the potential to change mass consciousness, are becoming more common. Network confrontation (network wars) is an effective means of influence, followed by social transformation and real geopolitical changes. Network wars are a phenomenon that is not always related to the Internet, but is always associated with the concept of a network. The network participants, including subjects, objects, actors, and nodes, are organized horizontally (where the leader ship is distributed among a large number of activists or actors), rather than vertically, which is common for traditional societies. The network is nonlinear and highly complex; all its nodes are interconnected by an infinite number of links. Modern social networks facil itate the formation of different, including protest, movements (including the “velvet” and “color” revo lutions), accelerate political changes; make weak ties stronger; and influence goaloriented news cycles in the media. Discourse and discussion on the Internet facilitate, consolidate, and strengthen radical opinions and views. To achieve influence, it is important to obtain not only simple responses to changes, but it is also necessary to carry out a concerted action focused on the active development (adjustment) of a transpar ent social network environment. In the last decade, pronounced growth can be observed with regard to the following: a) destructive socialnetwork structures; b) artificially created network resources used for the organization of information attacks; and c) false (cloned) Internet resources that could be used for dis information of a wide range of users. Media Viruses of “Color” Revolutions The use of media viruses (information and psycho logical viruses) as part of destructive network technol ogies is growing. Media viruses are socalled memes, which have become a major factor of influence in the recent events of the “Arab Spring” and in Ukraine. A meme can be regarded as a unit of emulation. Exam ples of memes include slogans, a certain type of cloth ing (fashion in general), specific ways of doing some thing, youth slang and beliefs, forms of entertainment, etc. Media viruses have been analysed in detail in sev eral domestic and foreign publications, where memes are considered in relation to their ability to spread on the Internet and across media channels, causing socially significant processes and consequences. A meme is the maximum available destructive simu lacrum. Often a meme (a group of memes) forms what is defined as the media mood. The main condition for the survivability of a meme is quick, massive, and
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widespread diffusion. Memes are essentially temporal objects that only exist in the course of their implemen tation. The era of temporal objects started with the advent of cinema, radio, and television. The level of temporality depends on the extent to which all of the feelings of individuals are involved in the perception of a proposed plot (external discourse, problems, values, etc.). The maximum level of temporality is achieved in the process of online interactions (network computer games, social networks, and interactive TV). The level of temporality affects the identity and intensity of the transformation of consciousness. Virtually, a person may feel more meaningful and free than in real life. The illusory sense of virtual freedom in conjunction with the maximum engagement with a temporal object gives rise to the effect of group behavior control in a network. This phenomenon triggers and fully defines the events of “color” revolutions. Under the influence of social media and direct TV broadcasting, a mass audience (Internet users) considers the time of “color” revolutions as their own. Thus, it is possible to create a virtual double of the civil society in a network that opposes the government, which is not part of such a network. Since the network is a double, or forgery of the civil society, all its actions are simulative and mostly destructive. The processes of selforganization are not sufficient to make a quasi crowd a fullfledged actor. There should be external control, timing, and logistics. The creation of memes is an entire industry that should take many nuances into account (espe cially specific cultural environments, mechanisms of media, media formats in different countries, etc.). The reliability of facts is not an important parameter, as it is in scientific social networks. The fact is secondary, the primary issue is the desired image and the interpre tation of facts. Social activity and mass relaying of memes are usually initiated from a limited number of centers: 2% of Twitter users generate 60% of all of the content that is distributed online and 5% of all users create 75% of the content. These are especially biased paid “users” of the network. When a large number of real users (perceiving an event as their own) is con nected to the process, retransmission continues spon taneously. If the meme is tenacious, later this phenom enon becomes selfinduced in its distribution. It should be noted that the network consists of not only the users, but also of virtuals and socalled bots, virtual users managed by networked robots that are controlled by biased bloggers. Thus, the media mood, and there fore a particular opinion or ideological orientation (the technologies of sockpuppet revolutions and twit ter revolutions) is created. In 2015, a digital media department (DIGIM) will be created based on the Czech branch of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, funded from the United States federal budget. This division will bring together experts on social networks, whose task will be “to confront disinformation in the Russian media through various social media platforms (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, VKontakte, and Odnoklass
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niki). According to the estimates of domestic and for eign experts, the Internet as a medium of search and exchange of information is increasingly playing the role of a global instrument of psychological warfare. In general, all the destructive network technologies are a part and a continuation of the socalled “indirect action strategy,” as presented in detail in the book of the same title by B.L. Hart. Certainly, information and communication tech nologies expand the room to maneuver for social movements (socialnetwork movements). Specifically, they have made these phenomena more efficient, hav ing qualitatively improved their scale and mobilization capacity. The modern information society is an ideal environment for the creation, operation, and use of networks. It should be emphasized that social net works, as their name implies, represent a social phe nomenon, which involves artificially arranged collec tive subjectivity, representing a part of society, and reflects its environment, social groups, and classes. Therefore, social network movements and social net works are heterogeneous. Their members can recon figure depending on social status, which makes such networks quite flexible. Thus, social communication (and social media in particular) makes it possible to maintain the existing state of the social system, trans late it into a new state, and activate or block certain parameters of this system. Sociodynamics as an Instrument of Mass Control In recent years, the theory and practice of social engineering has been complemented by a new scien tific area, namely, sociodynamics, which summarizes the empirical laws that result from: a) the application of Big Data technology to the vast amounts of infor mation contained in the data banks of the largest social platforms, such as Twitter, Facebook, and Google, etc. (60% of such data has an unstructured, primarily text character); b) the use of methods for multivariate mathematical and statistical analysis, as well as in cog nitive and behavioral sciences. These empirical laws are used to develop practical methods for the external influence, control, and manipulation of various com munities and social groups. Effective developments that are focused on implicit data collection and hidden control over the behavior of large groups have emerged. Supercomputing (the computing base of Big Data technology) allows the automatic segmenting and processing of vast amounts of information in real time. Summarizing the content and identifying key semantic groups allows one to obtain different types of information about the interests and sentiments of all the actors in the targeted segment. The analysis of the total volume of data enables one to define the type of mood and value orientations that prevail in the studied social segment. Thus, it helps to identify the ways in which information can penetrate a community (including by use of the media) and defining the type
of content and world view arguments that can shape the appropriate context in a given society or state. In fact, sociodynamics is a new information tool that can be used to manage other people’s meanings and enter “foreign” territory. Society’s behavior (or the behavior of large social groups) within the state has become an instrumental factor that can be influenced from the outside, thereby forming the behavior of the state in the domestic and international arena. Thus, the devel opment of methodologies and techniques of sociody namics and the use of Big Data technology will even tually allow one to monitor the dynamics of social interactions (and their origins) and effectively manage social networks, communities, and target groups sub ject to the knowledge of their formation and evolution patterns, as well as the characteristics of groups of any size and structure. This will certainly pose new risks of conflicts and instability to society. It should also be noted that Big Data technology supports the creation of new and significantly more efficient methods of economic, scientific, technological, political, and social forecasting. In the context of social systems and social communication, such methods represent a fun damentally new tool of information warfare. The Telecommunication System and Network Development Risks The development of the information technology medium of the global economy is accompanied by the growing threat to the proper functioning of complex information systems that are applied for industry, energy, and infrastructure management. A continuous expansion of the network space, as well as the growing number of Internet users (up to approximately 70% of the population of all countries in 2015), also entail new risks for most countries. Vulnerable elements of the Internet system include the assignment of domain names and the system of Internet traffic transfer. Domain names are assigned by the nongovernmental organization ICANN (Association for Assigned Names and Internet Port, United States). This organization decides on the reg istration of toplevel domains, such as .net, .com, .info, .org, as well as the national domains, which includes the.ru domain zone. Hypothetically, this implies that ICANN, which has registered the national domain zone, can also close it. In this case, all websites and mailforwarding services will no longer be available (for an indefinite period) for a given domain zone. Similar vulnerabilities extend to Inter net traffic. Transfer of internet traffic from one national zone to another may be terminated at any critical moment. Given that providers in the United States have full access to Internet traffic, they can also provide it to their government upon request. The same applies to the largest Internet service providers, including Gmail, Postfix, or Hotmail. One should highlight the risk of unstable operation of the Internet
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in Russia in the event of a targeted hostile action. Key elements of the Internet are located outside the terri tory of the Russian Federation. Access (to websites) can be blocked at any stage: the root servers can incor rectly translate web addresses in the machine form, not respond, or physically disconnect a network seg ment from the Internet. Thus, RuNet can be entirely blocked. One precedent is that Syria was cut off from the Internet in 2012. These factors explain the tensions around the possible risk of cutting the Russian seg ment of the Internet from the international payment systems, such as Visa and Mastercard, as well as the international interbank system of data transfer and payments (SWIFT). Some countries, such as China, being aware of the vulnerability of Internet traffic, have started to create their own national segment of the Internet. China is taking other steps to protect the country from the destructive invasion and uncon trolled access to information resources. By raising the issue of the total rejection of Microsoft systems China has managed to obtain the source code of the Windows operating system, as well as the texts of the Cisco router software, which supports the operation of most networks and servers worldwide (which, incidentally, are produced in China). It should also be noted that almost all top companies that specialize in the devel opment of software solutions for information security on the Internet, as well as all major service providers (Twitter, Google, Amazon, eBay, Facebook, etc.) have the United States as their jurisdiction. Another permanent high risk factor in the telecom munications, energy, and industry sector is the wide spread use of imported electronic components. According to some estimates, a potentially high risk of dysfunction extends to nearly 90% of the domestic energy networks (nonrecoverable system outages, takeover of power system control, etc.) both as a result of computer virus attacks (such as Dugu or Stuxnet), and due to external unauthorized actions that are per formed outside the area of their possible detection and identification. In recent years, overseas developments in the field of safety and security of management sys tems in various industrial fields and civil application areas have intensified. In this context, the most impor tant documents in the United States are the National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace and the National Strat egy for the Physical Protection of Critical Infrastruc tures and Key Assets, which outline the approach to ensuring the interaction of all participants in programs that aim at protecting the critical infrastructure of the state. In February 2014, the White House announced the launch of a new cybersecurity concept. The pro gram is voluntary; however, for its implementation, a roadmap of subprogram activities has been proposed for 16 sectors of the critical infrastructure under the aegis of the Ministry of National Security (which was created in 2003). One of the main tasks of the new concept is to develop public–private partnerships in this area.
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AGENDA Some conclusions, priorities, and the most urgent activities that are aimed at preventing the growing information confrontation and protecting the national information network space and information sover eignty can be formulated. A. It can be confidently predicted that factors such as the globalization of the world economy, the intro duction of new information technologies (including supercomputing and artificial intelligence systems), the expansion of the global telecommunications net work, and the development of the semantic web and the media will enhance the problem of information confrontations, information warfare, and the overall instability of the international community. B. The expanding information space, the rise of new technologies that enable supremacy in various spheres of life, improved networking technology applied to influence mass consciousness and exercise hidden control over group (and mass) behavior, and programming of destructive actions using social net works bring the problems of information security, information warfare, and information sovereignty to a new level. Protecting society from the negative impact of new information technologies is now part of the most urgent agenda. C. The development of the global telecommunica tions infrastructure, cognitive computing, expert sys tems, and bigdata technologies allow the simulation and direct impacts on the economic and social pro cesses. The relevance of a multidimensional study on the impact of the new global information environment on the interstate relationships and the development of the material and spiritual life of the individual and society is growing. D. To prevent growing information confrontations (conscientious and network wars), the international community has to join forces and cooperate closely to coordinate efforts in the field of information technol ogy and information security. Urgent measures include the internationalization of Internet gover nance (for example, under the auspices of the UN) and international support for digital equality and the information sovereignty of countries–members of the global community. E. The prediction of complex social systems and prevention of hidden (network) management of group behavior (groups of different sizes) requires the imple mentation of a comprehensive state program that is focused on monitoring and systematically analyzing the developments in the information space, and devel oping the methodology, mathematical apparatus, and software solutions to mitigate various risks and prevent network aggression. To implement this program, it is necessary to elaborate a roadmap that would link the timeline with a range of hightech measures, costs, and the national legal acts that need to be adopted.
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F. To protect the national segment of the network (RuNet), it is necessary to establish: a) key Internet infrastructure, including national root servers and the national system for routeaddress information; b) our own electronic components, equipment, and system software (one example is the Russian equivalent of the DBMS Oracle, 1C: Enterprise 8 platform produced by the 1C: Developer Network). CONCLUSIONS The problems of the information society, the devel opment of information technology, and information security have an interdisciplinary nature and are no longer the prerogative of professionals and dedicated experts. These problems have become supranational and relevant for the global community. Given the growing integration of information and computing resources of many countries within the global net work, possible transformation of traditional IT threats and risks into the problems of computer power pres sure cannot be ignored. The protection of Russia’s information space is one of the priorities of national security. Therefore, the strategy for the development of information infrastructure and information tech nologies in Russia should rely on the joint use of inter national experience, including the possibilities of searching for, exchanging, and processing data in the network space, and the minimization of risks that are associated with a negative external influence on differ ent social groups and domestic scientific, technical, and information resources.
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Translated by V. Kupriyanova–Ashina
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